Week 6 of the college football slate features more bye weeks than big matchups — eight teams in the AP Top 25 are off. There are just two ranked-on-ranked matchups: No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama and No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State. You know what a "quiet" week of CFB means? Upset chaos is on the cards.
It doesn't matter how large the spreads are, upsets come for everyone eventually. One off day and suddenly ranked teams find themselves in a dogfight they expected to be a cakewalk. It's just how it goes.
So which ranked teams are on upset alert?
No. 6 Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State
Texas A&M is a two-touchdown favorite over the Mississippi State Bulldogs. And why not? The Aggies will be on their home field, with a 4-0 record, a dynamic quarterback and one of the better defenses in the country. Currently ranked No. 6, they should be able to handle the likes of MSU.
Then again, college football is a funny sport and things that don't make sense on paper often make surprise appearances. Like a Top 10 SEC upset.
Actually, let's be honest. Would it be all that surprising if Mississippi State made this one interesting? The Bulldogs already upset Arizona State earlier this season. They're coming off a loss to Tennessee, but they led that game with two minutes to go, ultimately losing in overtime.
A&M hasn't been entirely impervious. They gave up 40 points in their narrow win over Notre Dame. And they were stifled offensively against Auburn, managing a 16-10 win after settling for three field goals. They're a good team, but this program still has to prove they can win week-in, week-out in the SEC.
Mississippi State isn't great at any one thing but they're also not bad at much either. They're 33rd in FEI, 34th in offensive FEI, 41st in defensive FEI and 39th in special teams FEI. Basically, they're decently efficient in all three phases of the game. Quarterback Blake Shapen has been solid and they've been able to lean on good running back play from Fluff Bothwell and Davon Booth. Defensively, the Bulldog secondary is filled with high performers. Jayven Williams is the fourth-highest rated cornerback in the SEC so far.
No. 11 Texas Tech at Houston
Texas Tech is also a double-digit favorite over their Week 6 opponent, the Houston Cougars. The Red Raiders are one of the most improved teams in college football thanks to massive improvements on defense. They ranked 4th in defensive FEI last year. Now they're fourth. The offense has been prolific as well, averaging 52 points per game. They trail only Florida State in that metric.
The Red Raiders' offensive numbers are bolstered by high scoring outings against weak opposition, but going into Salt Lake City and scoring 34 on Utah shouldn't be scoffed at. But it's also that game against the Utes that explains exactly why there's upset danger here.
Quarterback Behren Morton wasn't good against the first defense with a pulse he played this year. Utah intercepted him twice as Texas Tech struggled to pull away. They led 10-3 in the third quarter when Morton went down injured. His replacement, Will Hammond, came in and sparked the offense to life. They scored 24 points in the fourth quarter alone. He threw for 169 yards and two touchdowns while adding 61 on the ground.
During the bye week, Morton had time to heal up. Instead of being Wally Pipped, he's keeping his starting job going into the Houston game. It's not like Morton can't capably lead this offense, but we've seen Hammond do it against a strong defense, in a way Morton couldn't. Hammond's legs add a new dimension for defenses to deal with. But he'll be on the bench on Saturday.
If the Red Raiders' offense stalls early against Houston, that could be the opening for the Cougars to get a nose ahead. I don't think Houston is a better team than A&M, not even close. But they'll be at TDECU Stadium and guess who'll be behind center for Houston? Conner Weigman, who started his career in College Station. Revenge is a pretty good motivator.
No. 9 Texas at Florida
Texas and Florida both came into the season with much-hyped quarterbacks. And both have seen those young players get a heavy dose of reality. But that's about the only thing they have in common. They have been on opposite tracks this season. Texas lost their season opener then bounced back with three straight wins. Florida won their first game and hasn't tasted a W in the three games since.
Circumstances are vastly different though. Texas hasn't faced a team in the top 75 of FEI since they fell to Ohio State. The Gators have faced one of the toughest schedules in college football thus far — South Florida, No. 13 LSU and No. 4 Miami. To their credit, they put up a fight in all three games. The Bulls beat them on a last second field goal. The Tigers struggled to pull away in a 20-10 game in Death Valley. And it looked like Miami would run away with things early, but the Florida defense kept them in the game. It was a one-score deficit until four minutes remaining in the fourth.
So yeah, DJ Lagway has been a dud. Across those three losses, he's throw two touchdowns to six interceptions. But defensively, the Gators have been formidable. Stout enough to wonder if Arch Manning will be able to handle another tough opponent. He's gotten steadily more confident against cupcakes. He's going straight back into the fire with a road game in a hostile atmosphere against a strong defense.
Both Lagway and Manning have talent, but neither has been able to harness that talent into an impressive result. And both defenses will be licking their lips knowing how chaotic these particularly quarterbacks can be.
Texas is a touchdown favorite over Florida, a smaller margin than you'd imagine for the No. 9 team in the nation facing a 1-3 opponent. There's a good reason for that. If it's likely to come down to which quarterback keeps their composure, it's more like a coin flip.