Pressure is all a relative construct in the game of college football coaching. That is because every job is different. Success at one institution is not the same at another. It is why this wacky, weird and wonderful sport we love so much continues to amaze us. We have seen Bo Pelini get fired after going 9-3 at Nebraska, while Kentucky rolled out the red carpet to make sure Mark Stoops will never leave.
But before I begin, what we all have to remember is that Ryan Day was in fact on the hot seat heading into last season. Had things have gone differently for him at Ohio State, maybe even he is out of a job? Instead, he went on to win the first 12-team College Football Playoff as the No. 8 seed. It did not matter that Ohio State lost to Oregon and Michigan in the regular season. So who is feeling the heat?
For this fun exercise, here is the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll ahead of the 2025 college football season.
Preseason AP Top 25 Poll ahead of 2025 college football season
- Texas Longhorns: 1,552 points (25 first-place votes)
- Penn State Nittany Lions: 1,547 points (23 first-place votes)
- Ohio State Buckeyes: 1,472 points (11 first-place votes)
- Clemson Tigers: 1,398 points (4 first-place votes)
- Georgia Bulldogs: 1,331 points (1 first-place vote)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 1,325 points
- Oregon Ducks: 1,236 points (1 first-place vote)
- Alabama Crimson Tide: 1,179 points
- LSU Tigers: 1,174 points
- Miami Hurricanes: 889 points
- Arizona State Sun Devils: 791 points
- Illinois Fighting Illini: 713 points
- South Carolina Gamecocks: 667 points
- Michigan Wolverines: 662 points
- Florida Gators: 626 points
- SMU Mustangs: 565 points
- Kansas State Wildcats: 512 points
- Oklahoma Sooners: 463 points
- Texas A&M Aggies: 434 points
- Indiana Hoosiers: 423 points
- Ole Miss Rebels: 380 points
- Iowa State Cyclones: 309 points
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: 274 points
- Tennessee Volunteers: 192 points
- Boise State Broncos: 191 points
While there are many other head coaches sitting on much hotter seats, I am going to pick from those who are leading top-25 teams in the eyes of the Associated Press. No, I do not think all of them will be gone at the end of the season. In fact, I think there is a chance that they all stay. However, I do see a pathway for each of them not going according to plan, as their schools may go in a different direction.
Let's start with an offensive-minded guy who really needs his defensive coordinator to bail him out.
5. LSU Tigers head coach Brian Kelly
No, I do not think Brian Kelly is going to get fired after this season. However, there are few teams in the SEC that offer as much variance this year as the LSU Tigers. This is a team that could conceivably win all its games with Garrett Nussmeier being the next Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels or something. Then again, there is a way where it completely hits the fan in Baton Rouge and this team goes 7-5...
To me, it all comes down to three things. One, Kelly must do a better job of not bookending seasons with losses. Starting with a road date at Clemson is less than ideal to keep that dream a reality. Two, Nussmeier has to become more clutch. He is a mega talent, but does he thrive in winning time? And three, Blake Baker's defense cannot leak like a sieve. It looked deplorably bad at times last season.
I have LSU as a 9-3, non-playoff team, but one that has my intrigue for so many various reasons.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer
This feels harsh, but the standard is the standard in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The Crimson Tide are no longer led by Nick Saban. This will be year two for Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. While I do think he is a fantastic head coach, as his time at Washington and Fresno State would surely indicate that, I fear he has too many cooks in the kitchen in his coaching staff. I mean, the guy has six different coordinators.
I have Alabama in a similar bucket as LSU, in that the Crimson Tide will win around nine games, but come up just shy of making the playoff. It is only fitting that they face each other this season, too. While moving on from DeBoer this soon would be highly controversial, he really needs to lead Alabama into the playoff before the end of year three. If he does not do that, he will be out of there!
I think we will know by mid-season if DeBoer is really going to have staying power leading Alabama.
3. Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore
Sherrone Moore's seat at Michigan is about as hot as what Brian Kelly may be experiencing at LSU and Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. These are traditional college football powers that are possibly going to be on the outside looking in at a playoff berth in consecutive seasons. Moore inherited a great roster from Jim Harbaugh, but it remains to be seen if he is a quality coach. We know Kelly and DeBoer are.
The things that I keep going back to when it comes to Moore's potentially short leash as Michigan's head coach are Bryce Underwood's development as a first-year college quarterback and how the Wolverines could perform in the first four games of the season. The worst thing that can happen is losing on the road at Moore's alma mater of Oklahoma, and then at Nebraska while he is suspended.
If Michigan is 2-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Nebraska after Moore's suspension, it could get ugly...
2. Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier
I see the Florida Gators' No. 15 overall ranking and raise them this: Between Georgia, LSU, Miami, Ole Miss, Texas and Texas A&M, how many wins is Florida going to have? Any number more than three would be astounding. For as much as I think the team is starting to buy into head coach Billy Napier, what if he devolves into Sun Belt Billy at the worst possible time again? Their schedule is so brutal.
The other big concern I have is sophomore sensation quarterback D.J. Lagway's inability to stay healthy. He came on with a bang last season before suffering an injury. Lagway has missed time this offseason due to injury as well. If there is anything I have learned watching and covering college football it is if a guy starts getting hurt, he keeps getting hurt. I wish it was not the case for Lagway...
Florida feels like an 8-4 team to me, but anything far below that may no longer be readily acceptable.
1. Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables
And we have arrived at the hottest seat inside the top 25. That would be Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables'. Seeing Oklahoma at No. 18 is jaw-dropping. This is a Sooners team that did not even crack the Preseason Coaches Poll's Top 25. Like Florida, the schedule is so difficult. The good news is an overhaul on the offensive side of the ball could turn some of those close losses into narrow victories.
However, Venables is a defensive-minded coach, so he may not get as much credit for a potential OU turnaround as his new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle would. Furthermore, his boss in athletic director Joe Castiglione is retiring at the end of the school year. He is the one who gave Venables that bonkers extension ahead of last year. If Oklahoma wins around seven games, why move forward?
Oklahoma may only be a 7-5 team with how daunting of a schedule the Sooners will have to navigate.