5 college football teams ESPN is massively overrating in 2026

College football offseason means scorching takes, overreactions and recency bias that clouds our judgement. Or in simpler terms: Way-too-early rankings. ESPN released some right after Indiana hoisted the national championship trophy and posted their most recent ones a month ago. We won’t go too hard on them because a lot has changed since their last too early rankings (we’re looking at you, Brendan Sorsby). 

Most of these teams on this list are probably ranked higher than they should. The rest are ranked low enough that you could argue either way. My guess is when the first AP rankings come out, they’re going to look vastly similar to this and for that, these five teams are already on high alert for a season full of expectations.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

ESPN ranking: No. 10

Granted, ESPN’s most recent, way-too-early top 25 rankings for 2026 were from before Brendan Sorsby’s gambling addiction became public news. But it’s safe to say Texas Tech will not be a preseason top 10 team. This team needed to upgrade the quarterback position, and they did it with Sorsby to the tune of nearly $6 million. Without Sorsby, Texas Tech isn’t a top 10 team; if they believed in Will Hammond, the projected backup, they wouldn’t have gone after Sorsby in the first place. 

Again, the hype of the turnaround in the 2025 season is still looming over the worldwide sports and entertainment network. In ESPN’s next rankings will the Red Raiders be as high? Only time will tell. In college, the quarterback position is too important to think the Red Raiders will be fine without Sorsby. They made some big additions to the roster, including several wide receivers. 

Texas A&M Aggies

ESPN ranking: No. 8

It’s hard to believe Texas A&M will be anything close to as good as last year. They lost quite a bit from last year’s team, and Marcel Reed, for as good as he was, regressed toward the end of the year. Reed would have to make massive strides to show he’s good enough to carry this team on a College Football Playoff run. What made A&M good last year was the fact they brought back a lot from the previous year. 

This defense took a massive hit. The SEC will always be tough and now that Kalen DeBoer is getting comfortable in the SEC, it’s going to get harder for the Aggies to stay in the race. Ole Miss and Georgia should still be atop the conference as well. The Aggies struggled toward the end of the year, and the offense became a problem. Without KC Concepcion, this offense is continuing to head in the wrong direction. 

Penn State Nittany Lions

ESPN ranking: No. 15

It feels like ESPN is forgetting Penn State was 3-6 in Big Ten play, went on a three-game losing streak that got their coach fired and enter the 2026 season with a new coach. Yes, Matt Campbell is a good coach and honestly a good hire for Penn State, but ranking Penn State this high this early knowing how last year went, it feels forced. The Nittany Lions were a preseason top 10 team last year and finished with seven wins. Let’s not fall down this trap again. 

We need to see Penn State in action before we deem them a top 15 team let alone top 25. I don’t doubt Penn State is in good hands with Campbell, but it’s too early to tell. This feels very much like when Florida was ranked No. 15 to start last year and fizzled out before they even started SEC play. It’s fair to say Penn State could finish the season ranked inside the top 25, but they’ll need to earn that and prove that; not get a badge of honor because they’re in the Big Ten.

Utah Utes

ESPN ranking: No. 18

I struggled with this one for a couple of reasons. Yes, I think 18 is a fair ranking, but we have to think about the fact that Kyle Whittingham isn’t there anymore and the fact that this team got decimated by the transfer portal and NFL Draft. The Utes will still be one of the top teams in the Big 12, but that says more about the conference itself than it does the Utes. If I had to guess, Utah will probably be in the bottom-half of the rankings at the end of the season. 

If the 24-team playoff gets finalized as more support starts to pile in, it could be what helps them land in the CFP for the first time. That will probably be the only way they get into the CFP this year. The Utes were aggressive in the transfer portal, but I don’t have the confidence it will be enough to make them serious contenders in 2026. 

Tennessee Volunteers

ESPN ranking: No. 25

Tennessee is one of those teams that always finds a way to get ranked, despite how their season goes. I think 25 is reasonable, but I don’t think the Volunteers will be that strong once conference play begins. Their quarterback options are a redshirt freshman and a true freshman. That’s not to say they can’t figure it out, but I wouldn’t bet on Tennessee to have a strong year with two inexperienced quarterbacks. 

SEC bias is real with ESPN so that influence could help the Volunteers be one of the top 25 teams. Like Penn State, I need to see more from Tennessee before I’m ready to deem them one of college football’s best. The counter-argument is that who should be ahead of them? It’s a fair point, which is why it’s not outlandish to have Tennessee ranked. But they struggled last year with Joey Aguilar. They lost quite a bit of firepower on offense from last year, I’m not confident they’ll be as good as ESPN thinks.

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