The calendar has flipped to August, and while actual college football games are still weeks away, preseason rankings season is about to kick into high gear. The coaches poll was released on Monday, and next week it'll be the AP's turn to unveil its Top 25 to start the year — and inevitably kick off a run of endless debate about which teams are being snubbed and which teams are being gassed up out of all proportion.
But why wait to get that party started? While we won't know the official order for another few days, we can still make some very educated guesses. In fact, our very own Cody Williams has already put together a projection of how he thinks the first AP poll will shake out. And it's already got me riled up about a few teams who figure to either wildly outperform or underperform their ranking this fall.
5. Louisville (Unranked)
When the preseason coaches poll was released earlier this week, Jeff Brohm's Cardinals fell just outside the top 25, placing third in the "others receiving votes" category. But this team was closer than you think to a real breakthrough last season: Louisville lost to Notre Dame (on the road), SMU and Miami all by seven points, and a truly fluky upset at Stanford put to rest any hopes they had of crashing the ACC Championship Game.
Now, Brohm might well have his best team to date. USC transfer Miller Moss looks like the ideal trigger man for this offense, and with all due respect to the receivers at Clemson, you could argue that running Isaac Brown and wideouts Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy are the most dangerous skill trio in the conference. Combine that with Brohm's track record as an offensive mind, and it seems all but certain that the Cardinals are going to put up a bunch of points.
Can they get enough stops to make a run at the College Football Playoff? That remains to be seen, but TJ Quinn, Stanquan Clark and Antonio Watts are a heck of a linebacking trio and Brohm came away from the transfer window with a ton of intriguing G5 names that could revamp this team's secondary. Trips to Pitt, SMU and Miami won't be cakewalks, nor will a visit from Clemson. But this team simply has too much firepower to be overlooked like this; the Cardinals are capable of beating anybody on their schedule this season.
4. Iowa State (No. 22)
Nothing that Matt Campbell does at Iowa State is particularly flashy. But man if it isn't effective at a school where effective football has historically been hard to come by, and there might not be as big a gap between the Cyclones and Arizona State as you might think atop the Big 12.
Losing Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel hurts, but if there's one position at which Iowa State has been able to reload under Campbell, it's at wide receiver. ECU transfer Chase Sowell could be the next man up, and if he is, this offense will have everything else it needs with Rocco Becht back under center and one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country paving the way for the returning duo of Abu Sama and Carson Hansen.
The defense loses a bit more from last year's unit, but veteran DC Jon Heacock has more than earned the benefit of the doubt. He's got talent to work with at linebacker and in the secondary; if he can cobble things together up front enough to make this an above-average unit for what seems like the zillionth consecutive season, there's no reason why this team can't be banging on the door of a playoff spot once again.
3. Tennessee (No. 19)
The floor here still feels pretty high, as DC Tim Banks seems to have what he needs to produce another tough, nasty defense despite the loss of James Pearce to the NFL. But all the drama surrounding Nico Iamaleava's departure for UCLA has masked the fact that there are some serious concerns about Tennessee's offense in 2025.
Getting former App State QB Joey Aguilar from the Bruins in what amounted to a transfer swap was a decent enough emergency option, but it's far from a sure thing that he can pilot this offense against SEC opponents, and there are literally zero experienced options behind him on the depth chart right now. Speaking of a lack of experience: The Vols WR corps is similarly unproven, with Chris Brazzell the only returning starter. If former star recruit Mike Matthews isn't ready to make a leap on the outside, or the run game slips a bit without Dylan Sampson to lean on, things could be pretty ugly.
And that would put a ton of pressure on this defense, pressure that it probably can't withstand against what should be another rugged schedule. Tennessee should be rugged and physical once again, but they might be asked to take over games in a way that will be tough to sustain, and I don't quite get why they're ahead of some more proven options in the top 25.
2. Michigan (No. 13)
Michigan is a tough one to crack. On the one hand, this should absolutely be a championship-caliber defense once again; the Wolverines are as well-positioned as a team can be to replace Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant on the interior, and while there are still some questions to be answered in the secondary, Sherrone Moore's team gets the benefit of the doubt here.
On the other hand, this was a championship-caliber defense last year, and while the Ohio State win was magical, the rest of the season was very much not. There's a chance that all-world QB recruit Bryce Underwood comes in and immediately elevates the offense enough to give the defense the help it needs. But that's asking a lot of a true freshman, even one as physically gifted as Underwood is, and it's worth noting that he'll have a thin line and receiver group around him.
Again, Michigan certainly won't be bad in 2025, and the upside is such that I can understand why they'll inevitably find themselves in the top 15. But it does feel a little bit premature to start talking playoff before we see them with a more functional passing game.
1. South Carolina (No. 12)
Let's make one thing very clear: LaNorris Sellers is the truth. He's among the most spectacular athletes in the sport, and there are few players that I'd rather watch on any given Saturday.
But even someone like Sellers needs help around him, and I'm not sure the Gamecocks will be able to provide it. South Carolina has to rebuild the entire interior of its offensive line, and while transfer Rahsul Faison replacing the departed Raheim Sanders at running back, there are currently zero proven SEC targets for Sellers to throw the ball to. It's all too easy to imagine a world in which Sellers is put into tough down-and-distances and forced to run for his life just to keep this offense afloat.
And unlike last year, the defense might not be able to pick up the slack. Dylan Stewart gets all the attention, but he's also the only member of this ferocious front seven who returns in 2025; if opponents throw extra bodies at him, his teammates might not be able to make them pay. There's plenty to be excited about here, but projecting them as a playoff team right now is a bit rich for my blood.