With college football season upon us, I have the Oregon Ducks in rarified air, a spot only occupied by fellow College Football Playoff contenders Notre Dame. The Ducks and the Fighting Irish are among seven teams I view as preseason locks to make the 12-team field once again. However, I like other teams such as Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas' upward trajectories much more.
Essentially, Oregon and Notre Dame's ceiling is their floor. It would be shocking if they weren't in position to nab a CFP spot in December, but there is simply not much variance to be had with this fringe national title contenders. Oh, I would say they are among a group of eight or so teams that could conceivably do it, but I will be taking the five other teams mentioned above over both of them. It is only fitting the coaching collective saw it the same why I did in the Coaches Poll.
This is what the US LBM Coaches Poll looks like ahead of the upcoming 2025 college football season.
Preseason Coaches Poll for 2025 college football season
- Texas Longhorns: 1,606 points (28 first-place votes)
- Ohio State Buckeyes: 1,565 points (20 first-place votes)
- Penn State Nittany Lions: 1,525 points (14 first-place votes)
- Georgia Bulldogs: 1,466 points (3 first-place votes)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 1,360 points
- Clemson Tigers: 1,324 points (2 first-place votes)
- Oregon Ducks: 1,307 points
- Alabama Crimson Tide: 1,210 points
- LSU Tigers: 1,056 points
- Miami Hurricanes; 823 points
- Arizona State Sun Devils: 806 points
- Illinois Fighting Illini: 734 points
- South Carolina Gamecocks: 665 points
- Michigan Wolverines: 580 points
- Ole Miss Rebels: 573 points
- SMU Mustangs: 555 points
- Florida Gators: 498 points
- Tennessee Volunteers: 492 points
- Indiana Hoosiers: 460 points
- Kansas State Wildcats: 438 points
- Texas A&M Aggies: 392 points
- Iowa Sate Cyclones: 392 points
- BYU Cougars: 287 points
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: 261 points
- Boise State Broncos: 246 points
While there could be some reshuffling inside the top seven, those are the right seven teams. I may have a bone or two to pick with who the coaches put at No. 8, No. 9 and No. 10, but that is a conversation for another day. What I want to do right now is try to unpack why I would have had Oregon slotted in at No. 7 on my ballot if I had one, behind each of the six teams listed ahead of them.
To help me do that, I will pose five harsh and somewhat rhetorical questions.
5. What if OC Will Stein already has one foot out the door toward his own gig?
This has been in the back of my mind for about a year or so. The secret sauce to be had in Eugene, outside of all that Phil Knight Nike money of course, would have to be Oregon's wunderkind offensive coordinator Will Stein. A peer of mine, Stein is well on his way to becoming a Power Four head coach like his predecessor Kenny Dillingham quickly became at his alma mater of Arizona State in 2023.
Although Stein's alma mater of Louisville is not going to open up anytime soon for Jeff Brohm reasons, his sharp offensive mind could work at a multitude of Power Four programs, particularly out east. Should Mike Locksley fail at Maryland, Tony Elliott at Virginia or Brent Pry at Virginia Tech, you would think Stein would be on their short list of candidates. What lies ahead of him is hard to overlook.
I think for that reason, Stein's candidacy to get his next job might impact his work at his current one.
4. How confident do we feel they will beat Penn State and Washington?
While we should give Oregon some credit for trying to schedule a strong non-conference slate, it does not help them that in-state rival Oregon State has struggled in a post-Jonathan Smith world, or that Oklahoma State just went 0-for-9 in the Big 12. In short, neither win is a resume booster right now. Plus, Oregon faces some challenging road games on their schedule in the Big Ten.
Three of their four hardest games on the schedule will be away from Liquid Sunshine. Those include road dates at Penn State, Iowa and at massive rival Washington to end the season. Oregon could clip the Nittany Lions again, but being favored at home feels like a James Franklin special. As for Washington, the Huskies did not lose at home at all last season. Jedd Fisch is a good coach, and it looks ominous.
For that reason, I have Oregon going 10-2 this year with road losses at Penn State and Washington.
3. What if Dante Moore is not as good as Dillon Gabriel or Bo Nix at QB?
While the first two questions may be more of my concern, the final three are all ones the majority of the college football world is worried about. For Oregon, it is all about having great quarterback play year over year over year. Dan Lanning has done a phenomenal job of hitting the transfer portal since coming over from Georgia, but Dante Moore is not exactly coming in with a ton of experience.
He spent last season backing up a seasoned Dillon Gabriel in Eugene. Despite being a five-star recruit coming out of high school, his freshman season at UCLA was largely anonymous. Simply put, Moore does not have the in-game reps that Gabriel had coming over from Oklahoma and UCF, and nowhere in the same vicinity as what Bo Nix had coming over from Auburn after three years there.
If Moore proves to be a fantastic player, that changes the calculus, but so much is unknown right now.
2. When will the Oregon Ducks finally play great defense for Dan Lanning?
This is my biggest beef with Oregon right now. Since Lanning took over, I have seen them play just one game in which I felt they completely dominated in all three phases. That would be vs. Colorado in their final respective seasons as members of the Pac-12. Lanning was an outstanding defensive coordinator before arrivingin Eugene, but why is it that I never feel his side of the ball at Oregon is ever menacing?
While I will not go as far as to say Lanning may have one foot out the door like Stein might, I am beginning to wonder if he has the overall recruiting gravitas to land SEC talent on defense into a new Big Ten school that hails from a state with a shade over four million people. For Oregon to ever win a national title under Lanning, their defensive-minded head coach needs to level up his game.
Over the last three years, Oregon has both lived by the shootout and, eventually, died by the shootout.
1. Have we all grown tired of anointing Oregon, only to be let down later?
I am going to choose my words wisely here. There are reasons why Oregon is not what many college football purists would deem a traditional power. Oh, they have been a program worth writing home about over the last 30-something years, or ever since Mike Bellotti took over. Yes, they have the cool uniforms because of Knight's investment in his alma mater after creating Nike, but some lingering questions still remain.
At its core, Oregon is still forever soft. The Ducks have never won a national title because they simply do not have the recruiting base in-state. To get on the same level as the upper crust of college football, they must provide something of intrigue to impressionable kids who can be swayed by that sort of sizzle. Oregon has uniforms, while Texas A&M has NIL oil money. Sadly, it attracts the wrong type of players.
Last season was the one for Oregon to win a national title, and they got smoked in the Rose Bowl.