College football is only a few weeks away, and I could not be more excited! On Monday, the preseason Coaches Poll was released to much intrigue. While I do feel like the coaching collective got more things right than wrong, there are exceptions. No, this is not about who the coaches overrated or underestimated. It is all about trying to figure out who is going to be inside the top 25 at year's end.
So what I am going to do today is take a look at a handful of teams I'm questioning when it comes to finishing the season ranked. For the sake of this exercise, I feel strongly that if a team wins nine or more games in the Power Four (or even in a strong Group of Five league), they will be ranked. Teams that win fewer than nine regular-season games are very borderline.
Here is what the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll looks like heading into the 2025 college season.
Preseason Coaches Poll for 2025 college football season
- Texas Longhorns: 1,606 points (28 first-place votes)
- Ohio State Buckeyes: 1,565 points (20 first-place votes)
- Penn State Nittany Lions: 1,525 points (14 first-place votes)
- Georgia Bulldogs: 1,466 points (3 first-place votes)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 1,360 points
- Clemson Tigers: 1,324 points (2 first-place votes)
- Oregon Ducks: 1,307 points
- Alabama Crimson Tide: 1,210 points
- LSU Tigers: 1,056 points
- Miami Hurricanes; 823 points
- Arizona State Sun Devils: 806 points
- Illinois Fighting Illini: 734 points
- South Carolina Gamecocks: 665 points
- Michigan Wolverines: 580 points
- Ole Miss Rebels: 573 points
- SMU Mustangs: 555 points
- Florida Gators: 498 points
- Tennessee Volunteers: 492 points
- Indiana Hoosiers: 460 points
- Kansas State Wildcats: 438 points
- Texas A&M Aggies: 392 points
- Iowa Sate Cyclones: 392 points
- BYU Cougars: 287 points
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: 261 points
- Boise State Broncos: 246 points
Outside of teams like Oklahoma and Louisville, who just missed the cut, I can get behind these rankings for the time being. Of course, as soon as the AP Top 25 Poll is released ahead of the regular season, that will be my guiding light until we get the first College Football Playoff rankings come November. It also goes without saying that somebody unexpected in this top 25 will bottom out.
For now, here are the five teams ranked inside the top 25 I am dubious about being there in January.
5. No. 14 Michigan Wolverines
The Michigan Wolverines are a very tough nut to crack at the start of the year. I believe in the upside of Bryce Underwood at quarterback. This team has talent all over the gridiron, but I need to be see this year that Sherrone Moore is the right man to lead this team post-Jim Harbaugh. The Wolverines should start the year off ranked, likely within the top 15, but I think they are closer to an 8-4 team than they are to a 10-2 one.
Michigan should be able to get two easy wins in the non-conference over New Mexico and Central Michigan out of the Group of Five. I like Oklahoma's chances to beat the Wolverines in Norman during Moore's homecoming. While I can totally see six or more wins in Big Ten play, Michigan may need another marquee victory over Ohio State to ensure themselves of being ranked, even at 8-4.
I have Michigan going 8-4 with losses at Oklahoma, at USC, at Michigan State and vs. Ohio State.
4. No. 17 Florida Gators
For as much as I may believe in Florida's upside in the near future, man, do the Gators have a brutal schedule in 2025. Along with Oklahoma, it is the hardest in all of college football: They only have four gimme games (vs. LIU, South Florida and Mississippi State and at Kentucky), and even winnable games at home vs. Tennessee and Florida State are easier said than done. My big concern, though, is their other six ball games.
If Florida wants to go 9-3 and push for the College Football Playoff, the Gators must win all six of the previously mentioned games, as well as three of the following six: at Miami, at Texas A&M, at LSU, home vs. Texas, vs. Georgia in Jacksonville and at Ole Miss. Billy Napier may have great buy-in and belief from his team, but promising star quarterback D.J. Lagway being injury-prone already is less than ideal.
I have Florida going 8-4 with losses at LSU, vs. Texas, vs. Georgia and at Ole Miss.
3. No. 21 Texas A&M Aggies
Years ago, ESPN college football analyst Jesse Palmer taught me an invaluable lesson: Never trust Texas A&M under any circumstance. In the years since COVID, that still holds to be true. We do this every year in getting sucked up by the A&M hype machine. I am a huge fan of Mike Elko as a head coach, but Collin Klein must improve as an offensive coordinator to get the most out of Marcel Reed.
While I am okay with the Aggies starting out the season ranked, I question their ability to hold serve throughout the campaign. There are wins to be had in SEC play beyond just Auburn, Mississippi State and at Arkansas. But in the event they should shock playoff contender South Carolina, they still have to play at Notre Dame in the non-conference, as well as one dominating SEC program after another.
I have Texas A&M going 7-5 with losses at Notre Dame, vs. Florida, at LSU, at Missouri and at Texas.
2. No. 23 BYU Cougars
While I ended up with a ton of egg on my face last year for being so down on BYU ahead of the Cougars' first season in the Big 12, they still did not end up getting to Arlington. For as much as I believe in what Kalani Sitake is selling as a head coach, I just cannot get past the perceived downgrade at quarterback. I understand Jake Retzlaff had to go, but is BYU getting to a bowl game without him?
BYU should go undefeated in the non-conference with wins over Portland State, Stanford and at East Carolina. Where I differ on BYU more than others is I think their projected conference record of 6-3 is flipped. They get at least a few easy ones with rebuilding West Virginia and UCF coming to town, and I think they can clip a pesky TCU team as well. But I am not high on them winning any more Big 12 games.
I have BYU going 6-6 with losses at Colorado, at Arizona, Utah, at Iowa State, at Texas Tech and at Cincinnati.
1. No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers
Let me make this perfectly clear: I am a big fan of what Josh Heupel and Danny White have done together since leaving Orlando for Knoxville. Together, they have helped bring respectability back to this program. That being said, losing last year's starting quarterback in Nico Iamaleava to UCLA in the transfer portal has me so incredibly down on this year's Tennessee Volunteers.
Joey Aguilar could be a revelation at quarterback, but I need to see it first. For that reason, I have Tennessee in a similar bucket to that of BYU, a team which lost its strong starting quarterback from a year ago very late into the offseason under less-than-stellar circumstances. This will probably be a bumpy ride for Heupel this season, but that does not mean I am down on him as a head coach, y'all.
I have Tennessee going 6-6 with losses to Georgia, at Alabama, at Kentucky, Oklahoma, at Florida and vs. Vanderbilt.