Just when you think this college football season can't possibly get any crazier, Saturday rolls around and proves you wrong. We once again saw a dizzying number of upsets in Week 8, with five of the 11 remaining unbeatens — Miami, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Memphis and UNLV — going down in flames. It feels like there are precious few known quantities this year, with anyone liable to beat anyone on any given weekend.
Still, while 2025 has plenty of time left for twists and turns, it does feel like things are starting to clarify a little bit — at least as far as the College Football Playoff picture is concerned. We've got a way's to go yet, but we can safely cross a few more teams off the list of potential at-large bids after Week 8, including some of the biggest brand names in the sport.
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-2)
Hey, don't laugh. After surviving a scare at Maryland last weekend, Nebraska sat at 5-1 — maybe not the most impressive 5-1, admittedly, but 5-1 nonetheless. And the closing schedule didn't seem too arduous, with USC at home and a road trip to Penn State looking less and less scary by the day. It wasn't hard to envision this team getting to the finish line at 11-1 or 10-2 and at least forcing the committee into a conversation.
All of that feels like a pipe dream now, though, after Dylan Raiola and the Huskers offense imploded in an ugly Friday night loss to Minnesota. Raiola's sack and interception problems (and Nebraska's shaky run defense) finally came back to bite them, and Matt Rhule's continued flirtation with the PSU job threatens to derail what was a promising season. Nebraska would have to win out to even have an outside shot at Playoff consideration, and does anyone really trust this team to handle trips to Penn State and UCLA in addition to home dates with USC and Iowa? And given how the SEC and Big 12 are shaping up, would 10-2 with wins over the Trojans and Cincinnati even be enough?
4. Memphis Tigers (6-1)
It's hard out here for the Group of Six, where there's almost literally no margin for error to snag the one auto-bid awarded to the highest-ranked non-P4 conference champion. Just 24 hours ago, Memphis seemed to be in pole position: The AAC was clearly the best non-power conference this season, and the Tigers were ranked No. 22 in the AP poll after a 6-0 start.
But their CFP hopes may have flown out the window thanks to one of the more shocking results of this season, a 31-24 upset at the hands of a previously 2-4 UAB team that just fired head coach Trent Dilfer earlier in the week. Memphis isn't done, either in the American or the Playoff race; they still have games against South Florida, Navy and Tulane — the three remaining AAC unbeatens — on the schedule, and winning out would put them in the conference title game and likely back in the committee's good graces.
3. Utah Utes (5-2)
Utah looks like world-beaters when they face inferior competition, with all five of their wins this season coming by at least three scores. But twice now they've gone up against a like opponent and twice they've come away with an L, the latest a particularly painful one in the Holy War against rival BYU.
The Utes are going to be kicking themselves this morning, and for good reason: They had no problem moving the ball against the Cougars, outgaining BYU by almost a full yard per play, but two crucial turnovers turned a 14-10 lead in the fourth quarter into a 24-21 loss — one that has likely slammed the door shut on their Playoff hopes.
Utah is now two games behind the Cougs in the Big 12 standings, three when you include the head-to-head tiebreaker. They also lose the tiebreaker to Texas Tech, meaning a spot in the Big 12 title game is a long shot at this point even if they win out. And while a 10-2 finish is still on the table — the Utes only have road trips to Baylor and Kansas remaining, and they get Cincinnati at home — it's hard to imagine this team's resume stacking up against other two-loss teams in the at-large pecking order. They beat Arizona State without its starting quarterback, and Cincy would be their only ranked win.
2. USC Trojans (5-2)
It felt like this time might finally be different for Lincoln Riley in L.A. The offense was humming amid a scorching start, and while they stubbed their toe at Illinois, handling their business against a physical Michigan team last weekend felt like the sort of statement the Trojans hadn't been able to make in years past.
And then they traveled to take on Notre Dame Saturday night, and it went the same way just about all of their trips to South Bend go these days: USC's defense got physically manhandled up front, allowing over 306 yards of rushing in a 34-24 loss. Now Riley and Co. essentially have to win out to make it to the Playoff — and realistically, even that might not be enough.
For starters, winning out is easier said than done, considering that road trips to Nebraska and Oregon still loom in November; the odds are pretty good that the Trojans take at least one more loss from here on out. And even if they do manage to finish 10-2, the loss to Notre Dame is going to loom large, as the Irish look destined to also finish with two losses. It's clear who the committee is going to favor in a head-to-head comparison there, which likely dooms SC's Playoff hopes.
1. LSU Tigers (5-2)
It felt like only a matter of time before LSU's struggles offensively came back to bite them, and of course it was Diego Pavia who delivered the dagger. The Tigers once again struggled to run the ball and once again struggled to get enough juice in the passing game from Garrett Nussmeier, falling short in a 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt that moves Brian Kelly's team to the back of the pack of SEC Playoff hopefuls.
The good news is that the conference is as muddled at the top as it's been in recent memory, especially after Georgia handed Ole Miss its first loss on Saturday. The bad news is that LSU's margin for error is essentially gone: There are just too many teams that have a realistic path to a 10-2 finish, and the Tigers' schedule from here on out does them no favors.
LSU will hardly have time to lick its wounds before undefeated Texas A&M comes to Death Valley next Saturday night. And even if the Tigers manage to spring the upset there, they then have to go on the road to Alabama the following week — before a season-ending road trip to Oklahoma Thanksgiving weekend. If LSU does manage to win out, a Playoff spot is very much in play. But it's just awfully hard to envision a team with clear limitations surviving that gauntlet.