It is that time of the year where we relearn once again what the blue-chip ratio is. CBS Sports' Bud Elliott published his latest installment of it ahead of the 2025 college football season late last week. According to his calculations, only 18 teams can realistically contend for a national championship this season, based on how well they have recruited players out of high school. It seems to be everything.
For those unfamiliar with what the blue-chip ratio entails, it is the percent of signees on a team that consists of four and five-star recruits over the four previous recruiting cycles. It does not factor in transfers, but no team built heavily on transfers has ever won the College Football Playoff. While a team can make the playoff with less than a 50-percent blue-chip ratio, they are not winning it all...
Ahead of this college football season, these are the 18 teams who have recruited well enough to win.
- Alabama Crimson Tide: 99 percent
- Ohio Sate Buckeyes: 89 percent
- Georgia Bulldogs: 84 percent
- Texas A&M Aggies: 82 percent
- Oregon Ducks: 78 percent
- Texas Longhorns: 78 percent
- LSU Tigers: 73 percent
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 73 percent
- Oklahoma Sooners: 70 percent
- Penn State Nittany Lions: 68 percent
- Miami Hurricanes: 64 percent
- Florida Gators: 64 percent
- Auburn Tigers: 64 percent
- Michigan Wolverines: 57 percent
- USC Trojans: 57 percent
- Clemson Tigers: 55 percent
- Tennessee Volunteers: 54 percent
- Florida State Seminoles: 54 percent
Of these 18 teams, some are obvious playoff inclusions. You would be hard-pressed to see most people who follow the sport closely have teams like Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Texas not making it back this year. I will have all seven of those teams making the playoff this year at this time. As for the other 11, some may do it, but others will not come close.
If I had to pick eight teams to not use the blue-chip ratio to their advantage, here is who I settled on.
8. Michigan Wolverines: 57 percent
I have only just begun to pick how every Power Four team will perform this season. While I have a great idea of what could potentially happen in the SEC, I am still trying to figure out the lay of the land in the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12. That being said, one team in the Big Ten I am having a hard time of trusting is Michigan. The Wolverines won their national title two years ago, but that was a one-off.
If Michigan goes something like 10-2, the Wolverines will probably make the playoff in most estimations. My concern is they might drop three or so games this season. Sherrone Moore may be in for a rude awakening back at his alma mater of Oklahoma. Outside of Ohio State, who they own, there are not a ton of tough games on the schedule. Look out for at Nebraska and vs. Washington.
The ceiling for this year's Michigan team is probably around 10-2, but their 8-4 floor is not cutting it.
7. Florida Gators: 64 percent
Florida is a team that I think has an outside shot at making the playoff this year. I have the Gators in a cluster of about six-or-so teams in the SEC that would be happy to make the playoff this year, but are largely not expected to. They face one of the toughest schedules in the country, but that is just par for the course in the SEC. In a best-case scenario, they may go 9-3 or 10-2 to maybe make the field.
However, it is the combination of a brutal gauntlet, DJ Lagway still being a little bit green as a college starting quarterback, and the Billy Napier of it all. Florida has upwards of seven incredibly difficult games. They need to win at least four of them, as well as win their five other gimmes. To make the playoff, they probably need to win two of four between at LSU, vs. Texas, vs. Georgia and at Ole Miss.
This team's ceiling is potentially 10-2 with a 6-6 floor, but I have them comfortably as an 8-4 team.
6. Texas A&M Aggies: 82 percent
Years ago, I interviewed former Florida star quarterback, college football analyst and the iconic host/contestant of The Bachelor, the one, the only, Jesse Palmer. It may have only been a 15-minute conversation some five or six years ago, but he taught me one invaluable lesson. That is to never trust Texas A&M under any capacity. This team recruits phenomenally, but never gets the job done.
The Aggies may have a strong 82-percent blue-chip ratio, but they have never made it to the College Football Playoff in 11 tries to date for a reason. They always lose the game they cannot afford to, and usually then some. I love what Mike Elko is about as a head coach, but he needs maybe one more year to establish his style of ball in College Station. I have the Aggies going 7-5, but with a 9-3 ceiling.
Road dates at Notre Dame, LSU and Texas are going to be hard, plus hosting South Carolina as well.
5. Oklahoma Sooners: 70 percent
I was talking about this with my FanSided.com colleague on the latest episode of False Start on Sunday night. He and I are of the believe that Oklahoma is the one team in the SEC that can make the entire league look foolish. We have come full circle on OU, initially doubting everything to do with Brent Venables, only to be all-in on the likes of John Mateer and Jaydn Ott in Ben Arbuckle's offense.
Unfortunately, the Sooners play as tough of a schedule as Florida does. Even if I am bullish on this team to some degree, they still have to play the likes of Texas, Ole Miss and LSU at home, as well as going on the road to South Carolina and Alabama. They might win a game or two of that grouping, but that only gets them to 9-3. I have them going 7-5, but they are going to be a very tough out this year.
If Oklahoma is to make it to the playoff, the Sooners will need Mateer to be a Heisman Trophy finalist.
4. Auburn Tigers: 64 percent
I do not see it with Auburn. Hugh Freeze has been under fire all offseason long for living his golf bro lifestyle. He was brought into Auburn to help turn the recruiting around. We have arrived at a point where we may need to stop blaming Bryan Harsin for all that is wrong with Auburn football. Freeze needs to take some ownership of this. That being said, there is a chance they could upset someone.
In truth, I do not think there is an impossible game on their schedule. Getting their two biggest rivals at home in Georgia and Alabama is massive, but that requires upsetting at least one of them. From there, you cannot lose on the road to the likes of Baylor to start the year or at Oklahoma, Texas A&M or Vanderbilt during conference play. Diego Pavia owns Freeze, so I will be taking Vanderbilt for sure.
Auburn can make the playoff at 9-3, but the Tigers have a 5-7 floor; they can win six or seven games.
3. Tennessee Volunteers: 54 percent
I feel horrible for Josh Heupel. Had Nico Iamaleava stayed put at Tennessee, the Volunteers might be a serious contender to make it back to the playoff again this year. Given that they are on the bottom-end of the blue-chip ratio positives, it is not looking like it will be in the cards for ole Rocky Top this fall. Heupel better hope that Joey Aguilar and company have what it takes to play well at quarterback.
I look at Tennessee being a team capable of winning six SEC games this season. If they can either beat Georgia at home or Alabama down in Tuscaloosa for the Third Saturday in October, the Vols may prove me wrong and make the playoff anyway. Unfortunately, I could see them losing to teams like Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Florida on the road. What if they fell to awful rival Kentucky in Lexington?
Tennessee is going to make a bowl game, but the Vols are closer to a 6-6 team than to a 10-2 one.
2. Florida State Seminoles: 54 percent
As is the case with the three Power Four leagues outside of the SEC, I really need to spend some more time breaking down the schedule when it comes to a fallen former ACC contender like Florida State. While I like the additions of Thomas Castellanos as quarterback, Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and Tony White as defensive coordinator, Mike Norvell's team went 2-10 last season...
I think the ACC is Clemson's conference to lose, with about four or five other teams vying to get to Charlotte to probably lose to the Tigers. Those teams would include Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami and SMU. Duke and Georgia Tech may be a bit of a stretch, but anyone else besides those six teams getting to Charlotte is not happening. Florida State will probably be a bowl team, but that is it.
There is simply too much pressure on Norvell this season with not enough talent on the FSU roster.
1. USC Trojans: 57 percent
As long as Lincoln Riley remains the head coach of the USC Trojans, I am going to fade them at every turn. While I do think there could be something with second-year starting quarterback Jayden Maiava, I doubt Rob Ryan will be able to help transform D'Anton Lynn's defense overnight. This team is decadent unlike any other in the Power Four. I have a feeling this will be Riley's last season on the job.
To try and be a bit more optimistic, I think there is a chance this team can win nine games with an impressive Big Ten slate. I look at road games like at Illinois, at Notre Dame and at Oregon to be their three most likely defeats. If they take even one of them and hold serve, maybe they do make the playoff at 10-2? Then again, this is also a USC team that struggled on the road and lost to Maryland.
This should be a bowl team, but I have a hard time seeing USC being any better than 8-4 this season.