We should have seen this coming because this is exactly how Billy Napier got on the hot seat last year. He only knows how to win when his job is on the line, that’s how the Gators turned a season from hell in 2024 into an eight-win season with a bowl win – knocking out a couple of CFP hopefuls in the process. It’s also how he’s going to ultimately save his job in 2025.
Florida started the 2025 season as a top 15 ranked team and after four games, was winless against FBS opponents. All it took was an overranked and underperforming Texas team to give Florida fans false hope. The Longhorns looked exactly like we thought they would and Florida’s defense bailed the Gators, while DJ Lagway and the offense did just enough to get the win.
That win is a step in the right direction, but Napier has a lot more to prove, once again, he’s the best coach to return Florida to national glory. One win over a mediocre SEC team won’t win the fans back. I’m not sure how many wins it will take, but Napier’s job is far from safe in Gainesville and hopefully this is the start to turning things around and not the beginning of the end.
Billy Napier getting mediocre wins won’t save him from the Florida fanbase
Things seem fine now, but this Florida fan base has been here before and they can’t let Napier fighting for his life be the reason he comes back for another disappointing season. Contextually speaking, we have to remember that Napier is only good when his back is against the wall. Is it worth dealing with yet another bad season just because he pulled together a couple of mediocre wins?
The only thing that could save Napier at this point is if they somehow manage to land in the SEC championship game and get to the College Football Playoff. History is repeating itself and if Florida buys into another Napier mid-season turnaround, they’re setting themselves up to be like Penn State with James Franklin.
I give Napier credit that he’s able to bamboozle himself into keeping his job year in and year out, but this season has to be proof that nothing outside of the extraordinary should save his job. Florida has one of the toughest schedules in all of college football.
They finally have their first SEC win of the season, but that’s just a start. They have to go on a generational run to justify bringing Napier back again. He was tied to last year’s freshmen and sophomores with Lagway at the forefront. Lagway has looked extremely disappointing, meaning any leg Napier had to stand on with the players just went out the door too.
Florida still has to play Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Florida State and Texas A&M, all of whom are ranked. If Napier wants his job, he needs to finish the year 9-3 with an SEC title game, anything less isn’t worth carrying the problems over to the next season yet again.
Florida could have a James Franklin-sized problem like Penn State if the Gators retain Billy Napier
Bringing back Napier would be like Penn State’s continued belief in James Franklin. It’s gotten the Nittany Lions nowhere, and while you could say last year’s playoff run to the CFP semifinal was a good way to end the season, you have to look deeper than just a playoff run. Franklin has gotten so much scrutiny because he can’t win the big games against the big opponents. Last year’s playoff run, the first two teams were SMU and Boise State.
Penn State played against Notre Dame in the CFP semifinal and couldn’t win; it lost to Oregon in the Big Ten championship game. This season, Penn State lost to Oregon for the second straight season and then proceeded to lose to winless UCLA. Now the Nittany Lions are unranked.
Napier is setting Florida up for the same mediocrity if the Gators bring him back because he occasionally can win an unexpected game. He’s been mediocre at best at Florida and once the Gators administration accepts that, they’ll be able to actually improve. Use Penn State as proof that mediocre coaches yield mediocre results.
Nothing Napier’s done since he’s been at Florida justifies why he should be retained if he has yet another average finish. Yes, he had a brutal schedule this year and last, but this is what happens when you have high expectations. Napier hasn’t reached any sort of expectation during his tenure that suggests things will change next season.
If Florida goes on to win seven or eight games and gets a bowl win, that means they finished no better than last year. If the team doesn’t improve year after year or uphold a high standard than that means changes need to be made. In Florida’s case, that’s ridding themselves of the disappointing Napier era before it turns into Franklin’s Penn State era.