It’s conference championship weekend and all eyes are on the teams on the College Football Playoff bubble and how Saturday’s outcomes will affect the final CFP rankings. For Alabama, even though at one point the conference championship game wouldn’t punish you, win or loss, they could very well get left out of the field with a loss to Georgia as the No. 9 ranked team.
The Crimson Tide lost to Florida State in the season opener, before winning eight straight games before a two-point loss to Oklahoma. As a three-loss team, it’s a hard sell for the Crimson Tide to get in over BYU, which has two losses and is playing in the Big 12 title game, Notre Dame, who the CFP selection committee is infatuated with, despite not having any truly credible wins.
Bama could even miss the CFP thanks to Texas, which is probably going to find its way in because of Arch Manning and a late season win over Texas A&M. Here’s all the scenarios for the Crimson Tide if they don’t complete the season sweep over the Bulldogs on Saturday.
Can Alabama still make the CFP with a loss to Georgia in the SEC title game?
Here are some hypothetical scenarios that could help Alabama get into the CFP if they lose to Georgia in the SEC title game.
- Alabama loss and BYU loss
- Alabama loss and Virginia loss
- Alabama loss and BYU win
These are realistically the only two scenarios in which the Crimson Tide can sneak into the CFP field. The logic here, if there is any with this volatile and subjective selection committee, is that the committee has used criteria of reaching the conference title game as insurance for not plummeting you out of the field.
Alabama loss, BYU loss
Bama has the strength of schedule advantage as well as a better strength of record and the SEC bias on their side. With that, the Crimson Tide could stay in the field without risk of BYU jumping them simply because they’re already ranked ahead of them. The selection committee admitted that anything is possible, though I doubt they bump BYU over Bama unless the Crimson Tide get whooped.
Alabama loss, Virginia loss
As far as a Virginia loss, with the ACC out of the picture if Virginia loses, it’s hard to think that the committee would put Tulane and James Madison ahead of Alabama – the two G5 conference champions that won on Friday night.
If Alabama loses, it’s not irrational to think Notre Dame and Miami sneak in and Texas as well, but if the committee stays true to their criteria, then losing to a team ranked higher than them in the conference title game shouldn’t hurt them.
Alabama loss, BYU win
In a weird scenario where Bama loses and BYU wins, I could see the committee dropping Notre Dame and then triggering the conference championship rule as Notre Dame isn’t in a conference. Though Bama would be a three-loss team, they lost in the conference title game and that shouldn’t be the reason they get out over a team that isn’t affiliated with a conference.
Should Alabama get in if they lose to Georgia on Saturday?
I’m a big believer that a three-loss team shouldn’t get in if there are two-loss and one-loss teams on their heels in the rankings. In this case, BYU, Miami, Notre Dame are all ranked around Bama with Notre Dame the only team in the field. With a loss, a two-loss BYU should technically be ranked higher than a three-loss Bama, especially since BYU’s only losses are against Texas Tech.
This will all come down to how the committee really feels about Notre Dame. Sure the Fighting Irish have won 10 straight, but they started 0-2 and lost to Miami, who’s somehow ranked below them. We’ll learn a lot about the selection committee if Alabama loses.
It will be a hard sell to get Bama into the CFP field if it loses. That said, the Crimson Tide need to win to ensure they get in. Notre Dame is the wildcard and BYU winning provides an even crazier scenario, but Alabama is most likely a CFP loss, even if Georgia beats them on Saturday.