The good thing about the College Football Playoff featuring 12 teams is it actually presents the opportunities for real upsets, similar to what we’d see in the NCAA Tournament. This year, Tulane and James Madison are the Group of 5 teams with no respect and all the reason to shock the college football world. Tulane, as the No. 11 seed, will get a second shot at Ole Miss and the Dukes will get the chance to stun Oregon.
It won’t be easy by any means, especially with the first round games on campus sites. That said, it’s not irrational to think there could be at least one upset in the first round. James Madison is my favorite to pull it off. Nothing against Oregon, it just feels like James Madison is the sleeper team.
Since games aren’t played on paper, the question is, what would it actually take for Tulane and James Madison to pull off the improbable? Here’s how the two lowest seeds could reach the quarterfinals.
How Tulane could stun Ole Miss in the first round of the College Football Playoff
The most important thing for Tulane is to recapture its offense. In that game, the Green Wave only scored 10 points. It wasn’t until the second half of the season when they started actually scoring more consistently. Since a 38-32 win over Memphis, they scored more than 30 points in all but one game. If they want to beat Ole Miss, they’ll have to win a shootout.
Ole Miss is obviously still recovering from the Lane Kiffin drama so that could affect them negatively. Though now that things have resolved, it feels like it could motivate them. The Rebels can’t lose this game, especially after all the drama of the CFP rankings. Tulane could end all of that.
The other thing going for Tulane is the fact that Ole Miss has all the pressure to win. They are the home team and got in despite losing their coach. Sometimes that pressure can be unnerving. Ole Miss has to put all of that aside. The fact that Ole Miss already beat Tulane by 35 points this year, they have no choice but to win.
Ole Miss plays with pace so if Tulane can slow them down, that would help them keep it a game. Tulane has nothing to lose and they should play like it. They’re supposed to get blown out so there’s no pressure on them at all. That’s exactly why they could pull off the win.
How James Madison could stun Oregon Ducks with a first-round shocker
James Madison has truly been one of the strongest G5 teams, despite being one of the newest. In just two years of being in the FBS, the Dukes are already in the College Football Playoff. Since they’ve moved up from FCS to FBS, they’ve continued their winning ways. A lot of that was thanks to Curt Cignetti and his transformation. Bob Chesney has continued that in his final season before he departs for UCLA.
Oregon is a good matchup for James Madison in the sense that they’re not the toughest team in the field. Oregon’s offense has turned it up since the loss to Indiana. As good as they are, I feel like James Madison and the edge they play with will motivate them to play well. They only lost to Louisville by 14 points earlier this year.
James Madison has hardly played anybody this season. But they do remind me of Appalachian State where they can just sneak up on you. When they got to the FBS level, they became the first, first-year team to get ranked in the AP poll. It wouldn’t surprise me if they were the first G5 team to win a College Football Playoff game.
The Dukes don’t have to do a whole lot to beat Oregon. The toughest thing for them will be simply playing on the road and playing against better players. James Madison can hang with the bigger teams and they could very well pull off the upset.