BYU got humbled real fast on Saturday. Texas Tech shoved $28 million into their roster and the Red Raiders played like it, hosting College GameDay for the first time since Michael Crabtree had the go-ahead touchdown to stun No. 1 Texas at the time. Yeah, crazy things happen in Lubbock and now the Big 12 is in shambles.
With the loss, BYU was handed its first conference loss of the season and no longer controls its fate in both the College Football Playoff and the Big 12 championship game race. But the loss also complicates the Big 12 standings. Now, Cincinnati is back in the conversation as three, one-loss teams now battle it out for a shot at the Big 12 title game.
As of now, Texas Tech has the best odds as they have one loss, but beat BYU. It will ultimately come down to the Cincinnati-BYU game in a couple weeks. The winner of that game will most likely land in the Big 12 title game and as long as that winner and Texas Tech win out, that will determine which team gets in the CFP.
Texas Tech’s big win shakes up Big 12 title game race
TEAM | RECORD |
|---|---|
1. No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 9-1 (6-1) |
2. No. 7 BYU Cougars | 8-1 (5-1) |
3. Cincinnati Bearcats | 7-2 (5-1) |
4. Houston Cougars | 8-2 (5-2) |
5. No. 13 Utah Utes | 7-2 (4-2) |
6. Arizona State Sun Devils | 6-3 (4-2) |
7. TCU Horned Frogs | 6-2 (3-2) |
8. Baylor Bears | 5-4 (3-3) |
9. Kansas State Wildcats | 4-5 (3-3) |
10. Kansas Jayhawks | 5-4 (3-3) |
11. Arizona Wildcats | 5-3 (2-3) |
12. Iowa State Cyclones | 5-4 (2-4) |
13. West Virginia Mountaineers | 4-6 (2-5) |
14. UCF Knights | 4-5 (1-5) |
15. Colorado Buffaloes | 3-7 (1-6) |
16. Oklahoma State Cowboys | 1-8 (0-6) |
Cincinnati, Texas Tech and BYU are the only teams with one loss, though it could get really crowded if two of those teams get handed a second loss before the season’s over. Behind the three-way tie at the top, Houston, Utah, Arizona State and TCU are all lurking with two losses and a hope to crash the Big 12 party.
For the Big 12’s sake, this can’t happen. The last thing this conference needs is more scrutiny as arguably the weakest of the Power 4 conferences — though an argument could be made about the ACC. The best case scenario is Texas Tech and BYU land in the title game and both somehow get into the CFP.
Does BYU’s loss mean the Big 12 is a one-bid league in the CFP?
BYU is probably the conference’s only hope to get multiple teams in the CFP this year. Assuming Texas Tech handles business the rest of the way, unless BYU gets into the title game and beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, it’s hard to see the Big 12 getting more than one team in. If Cincinnati beats BYU later this season, it would basically mean Texas Tech has the easiest path to the CFP.
Cincinnati is still clinging on in the AP top 25 poll after a blowout loss to Utah last week, but it’s hard to see the Bearcats get into the CFP rankings as a two-loss team at this point. Sure, they have just one loss, but there’s just not a lot of games left for them to improve their resume. If any two-loss team is getting in, it would probably be Utah.
Could Utah sneak into the College Football Playoff with an at-large bid?
The Utes entered this weekend as the No. 13 ranked team in the CFP. They’re on the fringe of getting in, but the automatic conference champion bids have them within arms reach. I don’t think they’ll be able to sneak into the Big 12 title game at this point as BYU has the head-to-head over them if the Cougars were to lose a second conference game.
I think it would be very hard for a Big 12 team to get in over an SEC team thanks to SEC bias, but if there is a team that could pull it off, it’s probably Utah. Their losses to Texas Tech and BYU are going to haunt them, but they might still have life. It also helps having games against Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas to end the season.