Disclaimer: No college football head coach will be fired after Week 1. Teams do get upset all the time in this wacky, weird and wonderful sport we do love so much. That being said, any time a team of note suffers its first loss of the season, it leaves a sour taste in the mouth of the fan base and the athletic department propping this figurehead up. Everyone loses in college football, but it's about when you lose, too.
With the 2025 college football regular season slated to begin in less than three months with some Week 0 action, I wanted to take some time to see what high-profile head coaches cannot really afford a bad Week 1 loss. Again, none of them are going to get whacked after a hypothetical defeat in this situation, but it may be foreshadowing what is later to come down the pipeline. People do not forget.
I came across five head coaches, including LSU Tigers head coach Brian Kelly, for this exercise. He may have the toughest Week 1 opponent in having to go on the road to the other Death Valley to play in The Battle for Death Valley vs. the Clemson Tigers. LSU, or Clemson for that matter, have their whole season ahead of them after this game. I will argue in just a bit why that might be worse for Kelly.
Let's start with another head coach who will have his entire fanbase turn on him with a Week 1 loss.
5. Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer
Saturday, Aug 30: at Florida State Seminoles (3:30 p.m. ET)
Do I think the Alabama Crimson Tide will lose on the road to the Florida State Seminoles in Week 1? Probably not. However, I do not expect Mike Norvell's Florida State team to be at the very bottom of the ACC again. The 2025 Seminoles will not go 2-10, as I have a strong feeling they will win around six to eight games this fall. Norvell is already on the hot seat, but a road loss puts Kalen DeBoer on it.
Follow me on this. DeBoer may have won at a high level at Washington, Fresno State and Sioux Falls before, but this is the SEC we are talking about. It should not matter that this South Dakota native is a total outsider to the region, but the Crimson Tide faithful will quickly turn on him if it becomes readily apparent that he does not have it. He is not Nick Saban. They know that. They just want him to be him.
What I am getting at is Alabama will be sizable favorites in its Week 1 road matchup at Florida State. While a win for the Seminoles will do wonders for Norvell's fleeting job security, a non-conference road loss to this struggling team from a year ago may signify to everyone with Alabama ties that this year's team is not sniffing the College Football Playoff. DeBoer needs to get Alabama there by 2027.
Firing DeBoer after two season would be incredibly harsh for AD Greg Byrne, but it could be justified.
4. Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham
Saturday, Aug. 30: at UCLA Bruins (11:00 p.m. ET)
Let me be perfectly clear. It is beyond highly unlikely that the University of Utah would ever fire its iconic head coach Kyle Whittingham. That being said, this team failed to go to a bowl game a season ago in a year where there was some belief they could win the Big 12 in the Utes' first year in the conference. Whittingham is not getting any younger. He may retire sooner rather than later as well.
Even though I have a lot of respect for the job that DeShaun Foster is doing of leading his alma mater of UCLA, the Utes cannot lose this non-conference game vs. their former Pac-12 foe, even if it is in the Rose Bowl. While a win should help get UCLA to a bowl game, a loss might tell the entire Utah administration that this is the end of the line for Whittingham. It will be Morgan Scalley's show soon.
It will be a high-profile clash between two exciting transfer quarterbacks. Devon Dampier transferred over from New Mexico ahead of spring practice, while Nico Iamaleava took his sweet time to leave Tennessee behind. Let me put it this way. If Utah looks outmatched vs. UCLA, the Utes are toast. They would not only be wasting Dampier's time, but everybody else on the team sticking with Whittingham.
While I do not think it will happen, a bad loss to UCLA will help jumpstart a golden parachute send-off.
3. LSU Tigers head coach Brian Kelly
Saturday, Aug. 30: at Clemson Tigers (7:30 p.m. ET)
I touched on this at the top of the article. No, LSU is not going to fire Brian Kelly if the Tigers lose to Clemson in Week 1 during The Battle for Death Valley. It is one of the hardest games on the schedule that weekend. LSU is a playoff contender, but I would argue that Clemson is pretty much a lock for it at this point in time. What this all comes down to is doubt creeping into the mind of Scott Woodward.
Woodward is known for his big swings when it comes to hiring coaches. To get Kelly to leave Notre Dame was mightily impressive. He left South Bend with the belief that national championships cannot be won at Notre Dame due to climate, academic restrictions and religious overtones in a state that does not produce a ton of high school talent. Well, Marcus Freeman just played for a national title, bro.
Year three is the proverbial Brian Kelly pop year. It is when he gets Group of Five teams to six wins or Power Four teams to the playoff or a national championship. Well, year three came and went. It may take a little longer at a place like LSU in the heart of the SEC, but the clock is ticking on him to make it happen. Let's just say not making the playoff would be a tough pill to swallow for the LSU fan base...
Kelly also struggles with winning the first game and the last game of his seasons as a head coach.
2. Auburn Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze
Friday, Aug. 29: at Baylor Bears (8:00 p.m. ET)
While I think there is a halfway decent chance that the Auburn Tigers finally pop under Hugh Freeze and they contend for the College Football Playoff, that might be an impossibility if they lose on the road to Baylor to start the year. Baylor is a team with an outside shot of winning the Big 12. Sawyer Robertson is a dark horse Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback for them. Baylor is of quality.
However, Auburn still plays in the SEC. While they do get their two biggest rivals at home this year in Alabama and Georgia, it is going to be a tough road to hoe with an unexpected non-conference road loss in Waco. Freeze has won everywhere else he has coached before. It is usually slimy, but he does get the job done. Well, what if Freeze does not get the job done down on The Plains now in year four?
To me, as long as he maintains a good working relationship with athletic director John Cohen, Freeze may be able to survive another disappointing season in Auburn. Unfortunately, the YellaWood money may be the one driving the bus, the same one that drove the Gus Bus out of town. Auburn is not going undefeated, but losing to a team you probably should beat in Baylor, even if it is on the road, is tough.
Auburn was willing to overlook some character flaws with Freeze because he wins, but is he winning?
1. Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops
Saturday, Aug. 30: vs. Toledo Rockets (12:45 p.m. ET)
While the four other head coaches of note that I have mentioned will be tasked with playing a notable non-conference opponent on the road, can you imagine what may happen to Mark Stoops should the Kentucky Wildcats lose at home to the Toledo Rockets? Toledo is one of the better resourced programs in the MAC, but they have not made the playoff yet for what are ... Jason Candle reasons...
No, Kentucky was not a good team a year ago, far from it, in fact. That being said, Stoops is actually the longest tenured head coach in the SEC by quite a lot. He has been in his position for well over a decade now. While Kentucky has a great season every few years under him, the offense is what usually holds them back. The defense has been consistently strong, but scoring points can be hard.
What I am getting at is if Kentucky were to fall at home in Week 1 to Toledo, do you reasonably expect for the Wildcats to win three or more games in SEC to potentially counterbalance? They will not be favored vs. in-state rival Louisville at the end of the season. For Kentucky to go bowling at 6-6, they would need to go 4-4 in SEC play with non-conference losses to Toledo and Louisville. Good luck...
Mitch Barnhart may have seen enough out of Stoops anyway, as his UK departure feels imminent.