The 2025-26 college football regular season is almost over, and we've already seen some pretty significant movement on the head coaching front.
Multiple high-profile vacancies opened up like LSU, Florida and Penn State before many teams were even bowl eligible. Others were anticipated to become available and surprisingly didn't like Florida State and Nebraska.
The decisions of the latter could come back to haunt them, especially if pride is getting in the way. Sometimes change is necessary when things seem to be going steady.
CFB teams who will regret keeping or firing their HC the most
Florida State, Mike Norvell
This was probably the most surprising head coach retention in all of college football. Norvell had given Florida State every reason to move on from him, and the fanbase had been clamoring for someone's head to roll for the results of the last two seasons. Ultimately, the school determined the football program was on the best possible track with Norvell at the helm.
Granted, the Seminoles did achieve two 10+ win seasons, including a controversial undefeated regular season that would've typically produced a national championship opportunity, under his leadership. Some could point to those and say Norvell has proven he can coach a winning team but recent transfer portal decisions have seemingly stunted the program's growth.
On top of that you can also look at the available coaching candidate pool and ask whether Florida State could legitimately land a better leader than Norvell at the moment. Administrators' answer to that question was seemingly no. Either that or Norvell's $59 million buyout was just too much to swallow this offseason.
But with Norvell's questionable recruiting tactics in the portal - QBs DJ Uiagalelei and Tommy Castellanos were disappointing to say the least - there's a real risk that the 2026 season will just be more of the same if not marginally better. It seems more likely the Seminoles will just be right back in this position come next November and at that point they'll have just wasted a year and will fire Norvell anyways.
Penn State, James Franklin
He just couldn't win the big ones. It was as simple as that for James Franklin and his Penn State tenure. His 104-45 record during his time in State College would suggest significant success but that's only if you define four New Years Six bowl wins in seven attempts and one College Football Playoff appearance as significant success.
If you're a program like Michigan State or Minnesota then that would certainly be overachieving in the Big Ten but Penn State always had loftier expectations, especially since Franklin entered the picture and led the team to a conference title in year three.
But since then, he just could not take them back to the promised land. Franklin's 4-21 record against Top 10-ranked foes while coaching at Penn State made him the butt of every college football joke when it came to taking the program seriously as a national title contender.
Even when he got the Nittany Lions two rounds deep in last year's playoff, it wasn't enough because sometimes renewed success breeds unrealistic expectations. Penn State's 3-3 start to the 2025 campaign after being ranked the preseason No. 2 team in the country set Franklin up for failure.
Now searching for a new head coach, Penn State is vulnerable to even more regression because of a lack of quality candidates. Lane Kiffin was never going to seriously entertain a jump to the Big Ten, and there are few up-and-comers who could replicate Franklin's level of overall success.
Where salt could be rubbed in the wound is if Franklin immediately turns his new home at Virginia Tech into an immediate ACC contender. Then someone will have to ask the question, was it Franklin's fault or is Happy Valley just cursed?
Nebraska, Matt Rhule
The Cornhuskers were never in a position to potentially fire Matt Rhule but they also weren't necessarily pressed to extend him either. Speculation over his potential interest in the Penn State job sort of got Nebraska officials to leap at maintaining the status quo at the very least.
Rhule's two-year extension included some interesting incentives language where he would get a salary boost for every year he takes Nebraska to the CFP. It served as a potential template for other rising programs to stave off blue bloods looking to poach their own coaches.
But has Rhule really done enough to warrant such an extension? In three years Nebraska hasn't topped seven wins and has a single bowl win (2024 Pinstripe). The Cornhuskers haven't come close to competing for a Big Ten title let alone qualify for the College Football Playoff.
QB Dylan Raiola's likeness to Patrick Mahomes has been his only real comparable quality to the three-time Super Bowl champion because he sure hasn't played like him on the field. If Rhule is just going to keep marching on like this, did Nebraska just re-sign him to those incentives because it knew it would never have to actually pay up?
If so, was it really worth it just to avoid losing Rhule to another program? Would that regret feel worse than the regret of going absolutely nowhere with Rhule anchoring the team to mediocrity?
Whatever the case, Cornhusker fans are stuck with Rhule and will have to hope he's got a 10 win season somewhere up his sleeve.