There are only nine FBS college football games this weekend. 18 teams will vie for their respective conference championships but some of them will have massive implications on the national title race.
For some teams not participating, they'll be sitting at home on their couches and rooting for particular results to aid their slim chances of getting off the College Football Playoff bubble and into the 12-team bracket.
Those teams are No. 12 Miami, No. 13 Texas and No. 14 Vanderbilt. On top of that, No. 11 BYU is fighting for its life in the Big 12 title game despite only owning a single loss entering the weekend.
Group of Five contestants that are not currently in the Top 12 can technically be called bubble teams as only one of them is likely to qualify. However, the only scenario in which multiple get in is if unranked Duke (7-5) defeats No. 17 Virginia in the ACC championship and essentially eliminates the power conference altogether.
What do the CFP bubble teams need to happen on Championship Weekend to get in?
No. 11 BYU (11-1)
The Cougars are given a 34 percent chance to make the CFP ahead of their Big 12 title game matchup with No. 4 Texas Tech, according to ESPN's Playoff Predictor. It's essentially a win-and-in situation with a second loss dropping BYU into the same crowded category as Vanderbilt, Miami, Notre Dame and Alabama.
BYU only has one ranked win on its resume and losing to the same team twice in the same season without much else of substance to back up an inferior schedule compared to the Big Ten and SEC leaves it pretty much in checkmate. The only other viable path would involve Alabama incurring a third loss in the SEC title game and Duke upsetting No. 17 Virginia in the ACC title game to trigger chaos. Even then, the committee may favor a Crimson Tide team with four ranked wins on its resume.
No. 12 Miami (10-2)
The Hurricanes are given an 11 percent chance to make the CFP without playing this weekend, per ESPN. That seems generous considering the ACC championship will not feature Miami as a participant and the team already sits in one of the unlucky bubble spots with no chance of moving up.
Even if Alabama loses the SEC title, Virginia loses the ACC and BYU loses in the Big 12, there's still a likelier chance the committee excludes an ACC team altogether for two Group of Five champions to make its quota. A week 1 win over Notre Dame won't save Miami now.
No. 13 Texas (9-3) & No. 14 Vanderbilt (10-2)
The Longhorns' rivalry week upset over No. 3 Texas A&M is the only thing keeping them afloat. Three losses is a death sentence in CFP eligibility and even ESPN doesn't give Texas a percentage chance to make it in. There really isn't any viable path for head coach Steve Sarkisian to return to the playoff even if there's chaos.
The same goes for Vanderbilt who, to their credit, attempted to schedule a 13th game this weekend to impress the committee with a potential additional win. It's unclear who their opponent would've been but think about the possibilities of that de facto play-in game. Even if the Commodores got to 11-2 without winning their conference, they could realistically only pass Texas, Miami and BYU to be the first team outside the bracket.