CFP Playoff Picture after Miami wins: Updated matchups, paths and stakes

The Miami Hurricanes are the first team to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff semifinals after stunning reigning national champion Ohio State.
College Football Playoff Quarterfinal - Miami v Ohio State
College Football Playoff Quarterfinal - Miami v Ohio State | Sam Hodde/GettyImages

The Miami Hurricanes were the most controversial addition to the College Football Playoff field. They just proved once and for all they absolutely deserved to be there. It was already clear enough when they beat Texas A&M in the first round. Taking down No. 2 seed Ohio State in the quarterfinals, 24-14, ends the debate once and for all.

The Canes advance to the semifinals with their point proven but their sights set on more than just winning the argument over Notre Dame. They're one game away from the College Football Playoff Championship Game.

College Football Playoff bracket after Miami beats Ohio State

College Football Playoff bracket after Miami beats Ohio State
College Football Playoff bracket after Miami beats Ohio State | Michael Castillo, FanSided

How did Miami take down Ohio State, widely considered one of the best teams in the country for most of the season? In short, they were the more physical team. Mark Fletcher ran the ball hard. Carson Beck put his body on the line. Rueben Bain and the Miami pass rush made Julian Sayin's life a living hell.

The Canes sacked Sayin five times, rattling him throughout the game and taking advantage of the results — like Keionte Scott returning an interception 72 yards for a touchdown.

Miami didn't need Beck to put up big numbers. He was 19-of-26 for 138 yards and a touchdown. What they needed from him was twofold: Don't lose the game and take what the Buckeyes give you. That means running the ball for a critical first down or two.

Jeremiah Smith couldn't be contained. He had seven catches for 157 yards and a score. In the end, that didn't matter for Miami, who held the Buckeyes scoreless in the first half and withstood the second half push. After conceding back-to-back touchdowns on Ohio State's first two drives of the second half, Miami shut down OSU's remaining possessions and killed an enormous amount of clock.

Now Ohio State's season is over and their attention turns to departures. Miami though, they get to keep going.

Remaining quarterfinal matchups

DATE AND TIME

BOWL

MATCHUP

Jan. 1 at 12:00 p.m. ET

Orange Bowl

(5) Oregon vs. (4) Texas Tech

Jan. 1 at 4:00 p.m. ET

Rose Bowl

9) Alabama vs. (1) Indiana

Jan. 1 at 8:00 p.m. ET

Sugar Bowl

(6) Ole Miss vs. (3) Georgia

We ended 2025 with a game worthy of fireworks. We'll begin the new year on Thursday with a triple header of juicy matchups. Miami will be paying special attention to the Sugar Bowl, which will determine their semifinal opponent.

CFP semifinal matchups

DATE AND TIME

BOWL

MATCHUP

Jan. 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Fiesta Bowl

Miami vs. Georgia/Ole Miss

Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Peach Bowl

Indiana/Alabama vs. Texas Tech/Oregon

If Miami faces Georgia...

Georgia owns the all-time series over Miami with seven wins to Miami's four, with one tie between them. However, the two teams haven't met since before Neil Armstrong walked on the moon. Their last meeting was a 7-6 win for the Hurricanes in 1966.

The matchup between these Hurricanes and Bulldogs could be just as tight. CFB Graphs gives Miami a 52.8 percent win probability with a projected margin of only 1.5.

The numbers are intriguing but the storylines are even better. Carson Beck left Georgie for Miami after being pushed out for Gunner Stockton. It'd be a bit of a grudge match on both sides.

If Miami faces Ole Miss...

Georgia and Miami's last meeting predates the moonwalk, but Miami and Ole Miss's last meeting predates Elizabeth of York ascending the British throne and becoming Queen Elizabeth II. Miami won that 1951 battle 20-7, but they still trail the series 2-1.

According to CFB Graphs, Miami has a 4.7-point edge on Ole Miss. The Canes have a 58.6 percent win probability.

Miami's impressive defense would face an intriguing matchup with Ole Miss's explosive offense. The bigger question might be how the Rebels' 53rd-ranked FPI defense will fair, even against the Hurricanes' offense ranked 19th.

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