If you had told any college football fan at the beginning of the 2025-26 season that No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami would be facing off for the national championship, I don't think many would've believed you.
The Hoosiers' 2024 revival was thought of as more a fluke and not sustainable, yet head coach Curt Cignetti proved us all wrong with a 15-0 campaign. And Miami had so many questions surrounding its viability with Georgia transfer quarterback Carson Beck and head coach Mario Cristobal's potential hot seat timeline.
But here we are and a Cinderella in one sense or another is going to lift the CFP trophy at Hard Rock Stadium on Jan. 19. Ironically, the 7.5-point underdog Hurricanes are the ones who have actually earned a national title before and that experience may factor into a Goliath matchup.
3 reasons Miami will win the CFP title game over Indiana
1. Homefield advantage is real in college football
The national championship game is literally being played at Miami's home stadium this year. The Hurricanes went 7-1 there this year and even if Indiana has the largest active alumni network in the nation (over 807,000 strong), Miami fans will probably do their job and prevent too much of the stadium being filled with crimson.
Miami has gone 18-3 at home over the last three seasons including 2025. That's some serious home field advantage. Consider this, the Hurricanes went 5-2 at home in 2023 with quarterback Tyler Van Dyke under center. They finished that season 7-6 overall so that building has some home cooking associated with it. As far is it appears, Indiana has played just two games in Miami all-time and split with the Hurricanes but that was back in the 1960s.
2. The Hurricane defense is the real deal
Miami has allowed an average of just 14.00 points per game this season, good for fifth-least in the nation. Going up against the juggernaut that is Indiana's offense, which is averaging a second-best 42.6 points per game, the Hurricanes are going to need to live up to that reputation.
This could be the college football version of what happens when an unstoppable force (Indiana) meets an immovable object (Miami). The Hurricanes have held their last three opponents to just 44 points combined. The first two only scored a combined 17 points and one of them was the defending national champion. Miami has also forced five turnovers in their three-game CFP run (four INTs, one fumble). Their 16 total picks this year are good enough for 12th-most in the country (three returned for touchdowns). If the Hurricanes force Heisman Trophy QB Fernando Mendoza to make mistakes, they may have found the Hoosiers' Achilles heel.
3. Carson Beck is defying the narrative
Many chastised Beck for leaving the "gauntlet" of an SEC schedule Georgia faces every year for the cushiness of the ACC. While Miami was on the outside of the 12-team bracket looking in for most of the year (losing two winnable games late in the season), the Hurricanes' controversial inclusion looks to have been the best opportunity for Beck to prove the haters wrong.
He's thrown for 509 yards and four touchdowns while only turning the ball over once in the CFP. That's impressive considering Beck led Miami to the elimination of two SEC teams and the Big Ten runners up; hardly a cushy schedule. If Beck can claim his third career CFP national championship (2021, 2022 with Georgia) then he may very well have a case to be named the best QB in the tournament era.