It's officially crunch time for teams looking to qualify for the College Football Playoff. The 12-team bracket is starting to come into focus as the selection committee released its latest rankings on Tuesday. The committee's list tends to have a couple of differences from the Associated Press' Top 25 rankings, but this week there was one omission that had some fans scratching their heads.
Tulane earned the No. 24 spot, making them the highest-ranked Group of Five squad and subsequently the 12-seed in the bracket in the committee's eyes. AP 21st-ranked James Madison was left out. The former's judgment means more in this situation, but the committee appears to be backing the wrong horse.
Comparing Tulane and James Madison's résumés
A comparison of two team's résumés and the eye test typically have been the biggest deciders for the committee. In this case, it's difficult to understand why the one-loss Dukes are being penalized and the two-loss Green Wave propped up.
Both Tulane and James Madison's résumés are void of ranked wins, so the next step would be to look at their losses. The former fell to No. 13 Ole Miss early in the year, which is understandable, but a Week 10 loss to UTSA is a significant knock. In comparison, James Madison's only loss was in Week 2 to a Louisville team that was ranked as late as Week 12.
The two match on losses to Power Four foes, but with Tulane having the additional loss to a conference opponent (and a mediocre one at that), the Dukes really should have the advantage. It seems the committee considers the American Athletic Conference tougher than the Sun Belt and that's a fair assessment.
CFP committee is disadvantaging James Madison for dominating its schedule
However, the expectation should then shift to JMU dominating its conference, which it has. The Dukes have scored 30 or more points in six conference contests this year (two of them 50 or more points). That's exactly the kind of production you want to see in a team proving it's punching above its weight. In fact, JMU ranks 41st in FEI, an opponent-adjusted efficiency measure, while Tulane ranks 64th.
Granted, JMU still has a path into the playoff if Tulane were to falter in the conference championship game (likely against Navy). The Midshipmen are a good team but again, the résumé and eye test should give JMU the advantage.
The Dukes will face Washington State, a pseudo-Power Conference team, in Week 13 compared to Tulane taking on Temple. If both win, the committee should eat its words and allow JMU to flip spots with the Green Wave. They probably won't, but it would be a huge résumé boost for JMU if it ends up winning the Sun Belt.
We all want to see the 12-5 seed game where Indiana's Curt Cignetti has to face his old team in round one of the playoff. The committee knows what it has to do if the conditions are met.