Just a week ago, both the Texas Longhorns and Penn State Nittany Lions were still College Football Playoff locks in the eyes of most people, or at least they had the inside track based on where they showed up in the AP Top 25 college football rankings. It's amazing how much losses to struggling Florida and previously winless UCLA, respectively, can change things, though, as the two former national championship contenders are now unranked in the latest AP Top 25 poll.
Texas and Penn State both dropped from the Top 10 to outside of the Top 25 in the Week 7 AP rankings, shaking things up in a dramatic way. Meanwhile, Iowa State's upset loss to Cincinnati pushed the Cyclones further away from College Football Playoff contention, while Vanderbilt dropped slightly after its loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide. On the positive side of things, though, the Miami Hurricanes moved up yet again, while Texas A&M also inched up a spot as well.
There's obviously a ton of the college football season left to be played and, with how things have transpired to this point, things can turn on their head with just one chaotic Saturday. However, we're going to use the latest AP Top 25 rankings to build out the College Football Playoff field if the season ended today, but also then look at the winners and losers from the latest CFB rankings in regards to the playoff outlook.
Projected College Football Playoff field based on Week 7 AP Top 25
Based on the Week 7 AP Top 25 released on Sunday, here's a look at what the College Football Playoff field and seeding would look like for the 12-team bracket.
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Miami Hurricanes
- Oregon Ducks
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Georgia Bulldogs
- LSU Tigers
- Memphis Tigers
First Four Out: Tennessee Volunteers (12), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (13), Missouri Tigers (14), Michigan Wolverines (15)
With Memphis as the highest-ranked Group of Five team right now, they project to take the final spot in the College Football Playoff entering Week 7 — though the USF Bulls are just right behind them. That, however, pushes Tennessee, ranked 12th in the AP poll, out of the playoff picture for now as the first team out. However, it's also worth noting that the rise of Texas Tech has helped us to avoid a conundrum, for now at least, in which the Big 12 champion isn't stealing another spot in the 12-team field.
But as for the winners and losers, there is more to consider than just the teams in the projected College Football Playoff field for now.
College Football Playoff winners and losers from AP Top 25 rankings
Losers: Texas Longhorns (NR) and Penn State Nittany Lions (NR)
It only feels natural to group Texas and Penn State together as losers given their catastrophic Week 6 showings. Losing to teams that had a combined one win between them is the exact opposite of something to build the résumé. More importantly, though, this is already the second loss for both teams on the season, and neither has a win over a team that ranks inside the Top 85 in terms of ESPN's FPI ratings this season.
That alone would make the Longhorns and Nittany Lions losers, but it actually gets worse than that. In theory, neither team is officially eliminated from the College Football Playoff as winning out and going 10-2 for the year would likely propel both teams into the 12-team field. Having said that, doing so seems impossible after dropping games that just about everyone involved with either program had circled as near certain wins.
Texas still has to play Red River, on the road at Mississippi State, at home against Vanderbilt, on the road against Georgia, and at home against Texas A&M this season. That's daunting even if the Longhorns were clicking on all cylinders, and they're definitively not doing so. And while the full schedule is less taxing for Penn State, beating both of Indiana and Ohio State in the coming month feels next to impossible barring a dramatic turnaround.
Even calling the CFP hopes of these teams on life support might be putting it kindly based on what lies ahead for each of them.
Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes (1)
I'll keep beating the drum that Miami should be the No. 1-ranked team in the country over Ohio State right now based purely on résumé to this point in the season. However, the fact that the Buckeyes are still holding on to the top spot in the AP Top 25 rankings despite the win over Texas looking less and less impressive is undeniably a great thing for Ryan Day and his team as they eye a run at winning back-to-back national titles.
Even though the AP rankings can differ from what we see the College Football Playoff Selection Committee release in just about a month, the fact that Ohio State is still getting this level of respect from voters speaks volumes about the perception of this team. Even if the CFP were to flip Miami and Ohio State in their rankings, the simple truth is that the Buckeyes already have a built-in grace period should they falter at any point.
Now, to be sure, the Buckeyes have looked stellar to this point, even if they haven't faced the highest level of competition to this point. They deserve to be ranked highly, and a relatively soft remaining schedule (especially with Penn State's decline) doesn't hold too many danger spots for this team. But even if they do slip up, their current standing will work to their advantage when it comes to returning to the playoff.
Loser: Tennessee Volunteers (12)
Being the first team left out of what would be the current College Football Playoff field based on the latest rankings obviously isn't a good feeling for Tennessee, especially considering this is a team who has a narrow overtime loss to No. 10 Georgia and a road win over a good (and much-improved) Mississippi State team to its credit already. However, that's not the only reason the Vols come in as a loser after this week's rankings.
Texas aside, the SEC continues to look exceptionally deep and strong this season, and as of right now, the Volunteers aren't in a great spot in relation to the rest of the conference. They're behind Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia and LSU already, with Missouri just two spots behind them in the AP poll as where. While all of these teams will play one another in the throngs of conference action, the fact that they're having to make up ground based on their current ranking is a difficult spot to be in.
To be sure, Tennessee can flip its own script with big wins of their own, notably still with the likes of Alabama, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt still left to play. However, the fact that they're already behind such a bevy of conference foes almost demands that the Vols be perfect (or close to it) in order to crack the CFB Playoff field when it's all said and done, especially with the loss to Georgia already working against them in a head-to-head capacity.
Winner: Notre Dame
If you were to zoom out just a bit more than the first four teams out of the current College Football Playoff field, the next team on the outside looking in is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. While they might be only 3-2 on the season and lost arguably the two biggest games on their schedule to begin the year, the fact that the Irish are already that close to being in the playoff field is a huge advantage for Marcus Freeman's team, especially as they continue to show improvement and play better football.
When you look at the remainder of the Notre Dame schedule, the fact that the Irish are already at No. 16 feels like they might end up walking into a playoff spot. The USC Trojans, who they host in South Bend in two weeks, are the only team that could even have an argument to be a ranked opponent when the Irish play them. Combine that with fact that they lost to Miami and Texas A&M, two top-five teams, by a combined four points, and the Irish are going to be able to build a nice 10-2 résumé with quality losses.
Of course, Notre Dame has to avoid a letdown game to accomplish that, but the current positioning and where the season is heading from here has the Irish in a truly phenomenal spot to make a return to the playoff.
Loser: The Big 12
Aside from the Texas Tech Red Raiders, a team that currently looks like it could threaten to run away with the Big 12 this season, the conference as a whole can't be feeling all that great when they look at the AP Top 25. Yes, undefeated BYU moved up five spots to No. 18, while No. 21 Arizona State continues to climb as well. And I'll admit that I was shocked to see Iowa State still ranked at No. 22 as well.
On the whole, though, this conference felt like it would be a one-bid league for the College Football Playoff coming into the season, but the hope was that Texas Tech would be able to do what it's done to this point while other teams like potentially Utah, ASU and now even BYU would stake their claim as well to potentially sneak in as a second berth for the Big 12. As of right now, that simply doesn't seem like it's a realistic possibility.
The parity of the Big 12 makes it one of the most fun conferences in college football, but it's also to the league's detriment when it comes to the College Football Playoff. We're only six weeks into the season and the rankings are already showing us the same before the parity in the conference has fully come to fruition even.
Winner: South Florida Bulls (24)
Yes, I understand fully that, if the season ended today, USF would be on the outside looking in as they come in just one spot behind Memphis for the highest-ranked Group of Five team. Having said that, the Bulls used a dominant victory over Charlotte to surge back into the AP Top 25 rankings this week, and also got a bit of help to improve the merits of their previous win over Florida with the Gators taking down Texas as well.
In terms of quality wins in the Group of Five, the victories over Florida and Boise State are working heavily in the Bulls' favor when compared to other teams, even Memphis. Furthermore, you have to believe that they're prepared to wage war in The American to potentially take the lead. And let's also not forget that they'll have a date with the aforementioned Memphis Tigers on Oct. 25 in a game that will have monstrous CFP implications.
The fact that USF is already nipping at the heels of the top G5 team in Memphis means that they ultimately control their own destiny. In a year in which much of the Group of Five is down by previous years' standards, that's a great spot for the Bulls to be in.