Another week, another batch of upsets, and even more chaos in the AP top 25 poll as a result. Three more top-10 teams bit the dust this weekend: Vanderbilt's valiant comeback attempt at Texas fell just short, Georgia Tech's defense got shredded at NC State and Miami's inconsistency bit it once again in an OT loss at SMU.
All of which means that this week's top 25 has seen some major changes. Texas Tech and Notre Dame are now back in the top 10, while Oklahoma and Texas made big leaps after ranked wins. Here's how things stack up entering Week 11.
AP Top 25 college football rankings for Week 11
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Oregon Ducks
- Ole Miss Rebels
- BYU Cougars
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Virginia Cavaliers
- Texas Longhorns
- Louisville Cardinals
- Vanderbilt Commodores
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
- Utah Utes
- Miami Hurricanes
- Missouri Tigers
- USC Trojans
- Michigan Wolverines
- Memphis Tigers
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Washington Huskies
- Cincinnati Bearcats
But while the AP poll has been the barometer by which teams are judged to this point in the season, all that changes on Tuesday, Nov. 4, when the College Football Playoff selection committee releases its first top-25 ranking of the year. This isn't official in any capacity, mind you: It's simply a window into the committee's thinking, as they continue to evaluate teams leading up to the 12-team bracket reveal on the first Sunday of December.
Still, it's a big milestone, a way to see who's sitting pretty and who has work to do. And there's plenty of reason to believe the committee will see things very differently than AP voters do.
Biggest differences we'll see in CFP rankings from the AP Top 25
The Iowa Hawkeyes will actually be ranked
If there's one thing we've learned that the committee is a sucker for over the years, it's a Power 4 team with a shiny win-loss record. Enter Iowa, which sits at 6-2 after a 41-3 pasting of Minnesota a couple of weeks ago.
You've no doubt seen this movie before: The defense is a bear, and burly QB Mark Gronowski gives the offense just enough oomph to lean on opposing teams. There's a hard ceiling on how far this team can go, and no one should take them seriously as Big Ten or national title contenders. But their only two losses are at Iowa State and at home against Indiana by a combined eight points; in fact, they're the only team to come within one possession of the Hoosiers all year.
That lack of bad losses, coupled with the committee's abiding respect for any team in either the SEC or Big Ten, will work in their favor come Tuesday. It's hard to imagine any two-loss Power 2 team not finding its way into the top 25.
Virginia, Georgia Tech and the ACC will get no love from the CFP selection committee
The ACC, meanwhile, will get no such love. It was a no-good, very bad Saturday for the conference, with both Miami (at SMU) and Georgia Tech (at NC State) faceplanting while UVA and Louisville slogged their way to uninspiring wins at Cal and Virginia Tech. The conference title contender who may have looked most impressive was Duke, which needed one of the worst calls of the year to survive at Clemson.
That's going to come back to haunt the conference come rankings reveal time. The AP voters might have qualms about dropping teams who win or putting a one- or two-loss team below a team with more Ls on its resume, but the committee is operating under no such precedent. They're creating this from scratch, and if you're just basing things off of who each team has won and lost against, there's not a lot for the ACC to hang its hat on.
Georgia Tech's best win at this point might be at Duke, given how degraded the victories over Clemson and Colorado have become with time. And UVA has done hardly anything beyond beat a collapsing Florida State team and steal a game from Louisville in which it was soundly outplayed. The Hoos have one ranked win, and they eked out one-possession games against the likes of Washington State, UNC and NC State. Don't expect the committee to reward that profile.
Ohio State may not be a lock at No. 1 based on Indiana, Texas A&M's résumés
The Buckeyes continue to move through this season on cruise control, their latest win a 38-14 win over Penn State in which they scored 21 unanswered in the second half. At 8-0, few teams are more trustworthy, and the Buckeyes are locked into at the very least a top-three spot in the initial CFP rankings.
Don't just assume that they'll debut at No. 1, though. They may occupy the top spot in both the AP and Coaches Poll right now, but again, the selection committee is in a different business. And the fact is that Ohio State doesn't have a win that can match the best wins from the other two unbeatens, Indiana and Texas A&M. The Hoosiers won at Oregon back in early October, while the Aggies beat Notre Dame in South Bend. The Buckeyes' best win, on the other hand, is still the season opener against Texas, which looks much different now than it did in Week 1.
Again, we're splitting hairs here, and the committee could well look at the undefeated defending champs — a team that's been largely unchallenged, and a defense that's still yet to allow more than 16 points in a game — and give them the benefit of the doubt. Stricly on resume, though, the top spot probably belongs to someone else.
Love could be coming Texas' way in the CFP rankings
Speaking of the Longhorns: This is going to draw plenty of eyerolls, but don't be surprised if Texas places more highly than you might expect. It's been a bumpy road so far for Arch Manning and Co. starting with that loss at Ohio State and including another L at Florida and two more close calls at Kentucky and Mississippi State. But they still have just two losses, and wins over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma will likely match up well with their peers in the eyes of the committee.
Ironically enough, the Sooners did their hated rival a huge solid by winning at Tennessee on Saturday night. The Horns really, really need Oklahoma to remain a quality win; otherwise, they'd be almost entirely reliant on the Vanderbilt win, and that wouldn't be enough when weighed against their week-to-week performance. Now, though, they've got two top-15 victories under their belt, plus losses against the No. 1 team in the nation and a Florida side that just pushed Georgia to the brink on a neutral field.
And again: We know the committee thinks the world of the SEC, and we know that they'll give more than due deference to a talent- and tradition-rich program like Texas. Jumping one-loss teams like UVA and maybe even Texas Tech wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world.
Oregon may not get the benefit of the doubt from the Selection Committee
I don't mean to discount Oregon entirely, because this is still an extremely talented team that could well win a national title. But I need to ask anyway: To this point in the season, what, exactly, have the Ducks done to merit consideration for a top-four seed?
Sure, they've dropped the clutch on also-rans like Oklahoma State and Rutgers, but that doesn't count for much. The only thing approaching a quality win is at Penn State, which looks a whole lot different now than it did at the time. Other than that, it's a loss to Indiana and slogs against Wisconsin and Northwestern and a non-conference slate that also featured Montana State and Oregon State.
Again, none of which is to say that Oregon isn't capable of beating just about anyone, or that they shouldn't be ranked in the Playoff field at all. It's just all faith-based arguments at this point, at least until a trip to Iowa and a home date to USC, and the committee might not be buying it.