College Football Rankings: Projected Week 4 AP Top 25
Another week of college football, another group of would-be contenders not living up to the billing. Three teams inside of the Top 12 in the AP Top 25 college football rankings entering Week 3 all fell on Saturday with Clemson, South Carolina and then lastly Notre Dame all suffering losses. Even worse for that group, two of those teams suffered their second loss of the season and two of them were also upset on their home field. And that's before we even get to Georgia outlasting rival Tennessee in overtime.
That's certainly one way to give the AP Top 25 rankings another shake-up, namely with the likes of Notre Dame and Clemson now likely dropping off of the ballots with their second losses of the season. Meanwhile, there were other games throughout the country that were quite eye-opening, whether that was Arch Manning and Texas struggling against UTEP, Miami blasting South Florida into the sun, or even teams like Ole Miss and Alabama winning at home against Power Four competition.
There's a ton to unpack after a wild week such as this, so let's dive into what the voters will do on Sunday with their ballots as we project the AP Top 25 rankings after Week 3.
Dropped out of Rankings: Notre Dame (8), South Carolina (11), Clemson (12), South Florida (18)
No. 25-21
25. USC Trojans
Some people will certainly laugh at this, but I'm encouraged that USC won by 16 points against Purdue. Not only do I think that time will tell this season how much the Boilermakers have immediately improved under Barry Odom, but the truth of the matter is that the Trojans defeated some road demons, despite hardships with a three-hour weather delay. This offense is one of the most electric and explosive in the country, and Lincoln Riley's team should crack the Top 25 as more conference matchups loom.
24. BYU Cougars
BYU finally moves into the AP Top 25 despite the fact that the Cougars were off in Week 3, but they've looked quite quality behind Bear Bachmeier to this point. If you'll remember, I thought that BYU would get the nod last week, but that ultimately didn't happen. With several teams set to drop out of the rankings, though, the Cougs should be given the chance to move inside this week before going across the country to face East Carolina next week.
23. Vanderbilt Commodores
Vandy is “effing turnt” once again with Diego Pavia back at the helm. If you thought that the Commodores weren’t going to keep building on the upset-minded 2024 campaign, you’d be dead wrong, because Clark Lea’s group is perhaps even better than a year ago. Yes, LaNorris Sellers was knocked out for the Gamecocks in the first half, but Vanderbilt was already ahead at that point and simply got to pour it on more. This year's 'Dores aren't just a pesky underdog — they look 100% for real.
22. Missouri Tigers
Eli Drinkwitz and Missouri might have everyone up in Happy Valley wondering if James Franklin chose the wrong quarterback at Penn State with the way that Beau Pribula is playing to start his career with the Tigers after arriving via the transfer portal. Mizzou put the work on Louisiana in convincing fashion, including a monster 250-yard performance from Ahmad Hardy on the ground to go with Pribula. What’s clear is that the Tigers might fit the narrative that Missouri is at their best, such as this, when you least expect it.
21. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Haynes King and Georgia Tech deserve your respect. While the greater narrative coming out of Saturday might be that Clemson just isn’t the team we thought they were, the Yellow Jackets deserve their share of the credit as well, now moving to 3-0 on the season with two Power Four wins to their credit. More importantly, with the win over the Tigers now in their back pocket, Brent Key’s team now has a shockingly tasty path to Charlotte for the ACC title game.
No. 20-16
20. Auburn Tigers
Because it’s Auburn, there’s going to be no shortage of people who look at the Tigers’ win over South Alabama and think that Hugh Freeze’s team avoided an upset in a letdown game. Maybe that’s the case, but Auburn has looked too good thus far for me to fully believe that this was anything more than a team looking ahead to a date with Oklahoma next week. That could prove foolish as a belief, but it’s certainly a viable explanation for what we saw in Week 3 at Jordan Hare.
19. Michigan Wolverines
Sherrone Moore was sidelined on Saturday in the first game of the Michigan head coach’s suspension. And you’d like to say that you couldn’t even tell in a blowout win over Central Michigan, but it felt like you could. The brain trust of Biff Poggi and Chip Lindsey finally let Bryce Underwood cook and, while the Chippewas are not a good football team, that aspect was beautiful to watch. If the Wolverines actually unlocked the offense, they’re about to be exceptionally dangerous.
18. Tennessee Volunteers
Anyone who doesn’t keep Tennessee inside the AP Top 25 after the fight they put up against Georgia is outside of their mind. Make no mistake, the Vols should drop after a home loss, no matter who it came against. However, Joey Aguilar largely played big-boy football, the defense made life harder than the score would indicate for Georgia, and Tennessee is still going to be a factor in the SEC race. Chin up, Vols fans. There’s still a lot of good coming off a painful loss.
17. Indiana Hoosiers
Not that anyone expected something different against Indiana State, but Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers absolutely poured it on their in-state foes on Friday night. Fernando Mendoza accounted for six touchdowns and didn’t see the field in the second half while the defense was too much for the Sycamores to even consider handling. The ramp-up period for Indiana is over now, though, as this team will welcome fiery Illinois to Bloomington in a week’s time for a huge conference clash.
16. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Despite weather delays keeping Joey McGuire and his team off of the field for a long while, Texas Tech still took the field against Oregon State and kept on with what’s been business as usual for the Red Raiders against lower-level competition to start the season. Behren Morton continued to put up big numbers as this team airs it out, and they look ready to try and make a statement in Big 12 play with a massive game against Utah looming large for next Saturday.
No. 15-11
15. Utah Utes
Ahead of an ever-important matchup against Texas Tech next week, it was a Kyle Whittingham staple to see Utah go on the road to Wyoming and just sit on the game in any way they could. The one surprise may have been how much the Utes ran Devon Dampier, but even with a smaller margin of victory than some might’ve expected, there’s still no doubting the quality of this team and the fact that they still look the part of one of the Big 12’s favorites this year.
14. Alabama Crimson Tide
There were a lot of people saying that Alabama and Ty Simpson have been fixed after beating Wisconsin in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. The quarterback and the offense certainly looked better, no doubt, but I’m not sure that this proves much of anything about the Crimson Tide other than the fact that they aren’t an abject disaster considering they were facing the Badgers’ backup quarterback. The vibes are undeniably improving, but it’s not time to count their chickens before they hatch either.
13. Ole Miss Rebels
The primary takeaway many people have about Ole Miss is likely going to be something along the lines of, “of course, Lane Kiffin got this team in an unnecessary shootout.” That’s completely unfair, however. Even forced to go to backup QB Trinidad Chambliss, the Rebels still found their groove offensively and came up with enough stops, especially late, to get past a potent Arkansas offense. That’s quite a bit of adversity that the Rebs deserve the credit for overcoming.
12. Iowa State Cyclones
Is a one-possession win on the road at Arkansas State what Matt Campbell and Iowa State were hoping for in Week 3? Probably not. However, they pulled out an ugly win when this Cyclones team clearly didn’t have it, and move to 4-0 as they’ve avoided any sort of Ireland hangover, unlike Kansas State. Mercifully and seemingly necessarily based on the Arkansas State game, ISU will finally get their bye next week before they’re back in Ames to face off with Arizona.
11. Oklahoma Sooners
Perhaps the most interesting thing to happen to Oklahoma on Saturday was the question of why the hell they were playing on the road at Temple. But that trip to the Philadelphia area was a no-nonsense business trip for the Sooners as they boat-raced the Owls handily. John Mateer continued to look the part of the Heisman Trophy frontrunner, the defense looks to be in peak Venables form, and the run game finally got something going outside of Mateer this week. Now, it’s time to prove it again in a huge matchup at home against Auburn next week.
No. 10-9
10. Texas Longhorns
It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Texas drops after a win over UTEP this week. At a certain point, the eye test is going to come through in AP voting, and Arch Manning isn’t passing that eye test. By the transitive property, this Longhorns offense isn’t passing the eye test either. It’s been a big ride on the struggle bus for Steve Sarkisian’s team to try and find their footing on that side of the ball, and the defense is only going to be able to save this team but so many teams.
Now, let’s be clear, this defense is among the best in the country. At the same time, Texas has a bearish SEC schedule awaiting them in October after the bye that follows next week’s matchup with Sam Houston. Manning looks completely unconfident and uncomfortable right now, and until that gets shored up, it’s not difficult to make the jump to the fact that our preseason conception of the Longhorns might just flat-out be wrong.
9. Texas A&M Aggies
Revenge is a dish best served in South Bend. Texas A&M suffered a heartbreaker against Notre Dame last year, but got to return the favor on Saturday night. While it remains to be seen just how good the Fighting Irish are — you know, considering that they're 0-2 and should drop out of the AP Top 25 — the simple truth is that the Aggies showed a ton of fight and, frankly, an element offensively with Marcel Reed that I wasn't sure they were capable of.
Reed isn't a perfect passer, but the downfield deep ball has been there for the Aggies with the weapons on the outside, and the A&M signal-caller has seemingly found that part of his game now. With his rushing ability and a strong backfield, if that element sticks around, this is a team that absolutely has to be taken seriously as a viable College Football Playoff contender.
No. 8-7
8. Florida State Seminoles
Mike Norvell’s Florida State Seminoles got a bye week on Saturday, and somehow still came out of it looking better than when they entered the day. That’s always a nice feather in the cap to not have to lift a finger and have the résumé boosted, but that’s what happens when FSU was able to thoroughly dominate Alabama in Week 1 and then have the Crimson Tide assert their will against a Power Four opponent like Wisconsin.
You might as well call it a bye for the Noles next week as they welcome Kent State to Tallahassee, too. No offense to the Golden Flashes, but they’re among the worst teams in the entirety of the FBS, and FSU looks the part of one of the best. That will be a nice matchup, though, as Florida State will then have a short week before they begin ACC play on Friday at Virginia on the 26th.
7. Illinois Fighting Illini
One of the hallmarks of a good football team is winning with authority even when you aren’t firing on all cylinders. To be sure, Illinois was doing that seemingly by design, and understandably so, on Saturday as they hosted Western Michigan in Champaign. With a huge matchup against Indiana on deck for Bret Bielema’s team, they weren’t trying to run anything near full capacity, and they still dominated an inferior opponent.
The 38-0 shutout victory over the Broncos was a masterclass in domination without doing too much. Luke Altmyer was as good as he needed to be, the run game allowed the Illini to simply control every part of the action, and the defense sat on WMU to the point that they just couldn’t get anything going. Illinois continues to slip under some people’s radars as perhaps the only Top 10 team in college football that no one is talking about.
No. 6-5
6. Penn State Nittany Lions
Is Penn State the only team in the country that can keep reeling off decisive wins, but still have a multitude of questions about them? Probably not, but it’s been a frustrating start to the season for the Nittany Lions against inferior competition. Yes, the blew the doors off of Villanova on Saturday, but does that actually mean anything, especially if a lot of what we’re seeing through these first three games is so eerily reminiscent of the issues present with this team in recent years.
Drew Allar, at least to this point, still seems to have the questionable trigger and decision-making that have plagued the offense, which causes that side of the ball to lack another gear. The defense still looks nails, even with some of the personnel losses that they suffered, but will that be enough? With a bye week and then welcoming Oregon to Happy Valley looming on the schedule, Penn State doesn’t have much time to figure it out.
5. Oregon Ducks
While I certainly would’ve expected Oregon to win by more than 20 on the road against Northwestern, that’s a bit misleading for how this one played out. The Ducks were in complete control of this matchup from start to finish, and the outcome wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicated. The simple truth is that the Wildcats came out with the clear gameplan to limit possessions and slow things down to try and limit Oregon’s ability to run away from them.
Obviously, that plan worked out, but it doesn’t mean that Northwestern was ever in the same stratosphere of quality as the Ducks on Saturday. There’s no reason to believe still that this team isn’t one of the best in the country right now, and they likely won’t look any differently next week against rival Oregon State. Next up thereafter, though, is the massive showdown with Penn State in Beaver Stadium.
No. 4-3
4. Georgia Bulldogs
Is it even a Saturday for the Dawgs in Knoxville if we don’t have calls for Mike Bobo to lose his job, multiple shirts that have been sweated through, more expletives uttered than Superbad, and another win over the Vols for Georgia? The rivalry matchup between these longtime SEC East rivals feels like it was always chaotic, and this still might be the craziest of the bunch. But when all the dust and calamity had settled, Kirby Smart’s team had secured its first signature win of the season.
Even with a victory under their belt, Georgia still has a lot to clean up. A talented offensive line needs to protect Gunner Stockton better. The defense needs way fewer lapses, particularly in coverage, than what we’ve seen to this point. That all holds especially true considering that, after the bye, the Bulldogs don’t get any sort of break as they’ll be back home in Athens to host an Alabama team that has been a ghoul haunting Smart’s team for years.
3. LSU Tigers
It certainly wasn’t the prettiest game from LSU, especially from Garrett Nussmeier and the offense (and we can also throw Brian Kelly into that equation as well). The Tigers were a little too insistent on trying to run the ball against a solid Florida front, and Nuss was entirely too inconsistent, even if he was able to string together several chunk plays. And yet, it never really mattered because of the blender the LSU defense put DJ Lagway in.
So much was made about the defensive overall the Tigers and coordinator Blake Baker made this offseason, and we’ve seen it pay major dividends twice already. We’re not particularly used to what has been a high-octane offense look so grounded, but if LSU can get back to form on that side of the ball, they have a real chance to be in the mix to win the SEC when it’s all said and done.
No. 2-1
2. Miami Hurricanes
Who knows how different things would’ve been for Miami against the upstart USF Bulls had South Florida not been coming to Hard Rock Stadium on the heels of two straight wins against ranked opponents. But based on what we saw on Saturday, I don’t think it would’ve been much different. No hyperbole, the Carson Beck led Hurricanes might be the most impressive team in college football through the first three weeks of the year.
There could’ve been a world to move Miami up to No. 1 in the rankings, but it honestly doesn’t feel like the AP voters will penalize Ohio State, even if they probably should. Make no mistake, though, this might be the most well-oiled machine we’ve seen from Mario Cristobal. This offense looks just as potent as it was with Cam Ward a year ago, but now there’s defense returning to The U to help bolster that effort and not let it go to waste.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
My best guess is that a ton of AP voters aren’t going to have gotten eyes on Ohio-Ohio State on Saturday evening, especially with the game on Peacock. They’re only going to look at the final score and see what looks like a decisive 37-9 victory. That’s going to be enough to keep the Buckeyes as the No. 1 team in the country when it’s all said and done — but if it was my ballot, that wouldn’t be the case.
For starters, the win over Texas, especially at home, continues to look less impressive by the week. Beyond that, the Buckeyes were in a one-score game late in the third quarter with the in-state Bobcats, even if the offense ended up putting up big numbers. This still feels like an OSU team that has some kinks to work out, and their quality against high-level competition might be more in question than previously mentioned. More than anything, though, the Buckeyes simply don’t have the best résumé in the country anymore.