Neither Vanderbilt Commodores fans nor Alabama Crimson Tide fans have forgotten what happened when these two SEC foes met in Nashville last season. Diego Pavia shocked the world and told everyone that Vandy is "turnt" (with some more colorful modifiers) as Clark Lea's team pulled off a monster upset. But now the matchup is heading to Tuscaloosa in Week 6, which changes things enough. Pavia and Vanderbilt, however, might be poking the bear just a bit too much for this.
Make no mistake, the Commodores have plenty of reason to feel confident coming into this matchup. They are no longer the doormat of the SEC, as best evidenced by the fact that this will be the first Vandy-Alabama matchup between two ranked teams in nearly 90 years (the Crimson Tide defeated the Dores, 9-7, back in 1937 in the last instance). Moreover, Vanderbilt comes into the matchup at 5-0 on the season and with bigger hopes this time around than just making a bowl game.
There's reason for Pavia and the rest of Lea's team to be confident. But there's a fine line between confidence and dangerous arrogance, which the 'Dores might've already run past with some of what they've said this week, starting with their beloved, fiery quarterback, Pavia.
"I don’t know what they’re doing, I just focus on us, but I know we’ve got to bring it, that’s for sure," Pavia said, via On3. "The crowd, I think, is going to be a big factor in the game. But we just gotta play within the white lines. If we do that, if we play our game, it won’t be close."
Believing you're going to win is one thing — saying that this game won't be close is another thing entirely. However, that eye-popping confidence isn't just with Pavia, as star running back Sedrick Alexander echoed a similar sentiment to Billy Derrick of Vandy247.
"I feel like we’re going to go dominate down there in Tuscaloosa," Alexander said. "I feel like we have the best coaching staff and best players in the country, so I feel like we’re going to do great things."
Again, I love the belief that Vanderbilt has built in themselves under Lea and this staff. And I actually agree with Alexander that this might be among the best coaching staffs in college football. All of this, however, feels like the 'Dores might be eating a healthy helping of crow after this game when the final whistle blows on Saturday.
Vanderbilt playing a dangerous game with fiery quotes toward Alabama
Make no mistake, this is a much better Vanderbilt team than the one that knocked off Alabama team a year ago. While their ceiling remains slightly uncertain, the explosiveness this team possesses on offense is undeniable, as is the certainty in their identity. At the same time, though, this is also a Vanderbilt team that isn't going to catch the Crimson Tide by surprise this time around.
The Commodores had been easy to overlook for so long in the SEC, and it became something that Lea, as his program was starting its come-up last year, used to its advantage against opponents like Alabama. Now, Vandy has a number next to its name on the schedule, has a zero in the loss column, and has the upset win last year that puts them squarely on Bama's radar and won't allow them to be looked past in this matchup.
More important than that, the last thing that Vanderbilt needed to do in light of that situation was give Alabama more ammunition. The bear was already angry, and the comments from Pavia and Alexander were, in essence, throwing rocks at it just to make damn sure that it was as angry and motivated as possible.
This is also, quite simply, a much taller order than anything Vandy has had on its plate this season. Yes, they beat South Carolina — but LaNorris Sellers was ruled out by halftime. The remainder of their wins came against Charleston Southern, Virginia Tech (who fired their coach soon after), Georgia State, and Utah State.
In that, Ty Simpson and Kalen DeBoer will be the best quarterback and offensive combo the Commodores have seen, and that still hasn't stopped Vanderbilt from ranking outside the top 45 in defensive success rate against both the pass and the run this season.
So, when you combine all of that with the comments from the players, the slope looks even more slippery. That might be even truer when you consider the history that Vanderbilt is also staring up at coming into this matchup.
The numbers for Vanderbilt are stacked against them in Tuscaloosa
Despite the monumental victory against Alabama a year ago, the 2025 matchup being on the road against the Crimson Tide and being against a Top 10 team seemingly stacks the deck against the Commodores. Or at least that's what history in this type of matchup would have you believe.
Vanderbilt is 1-17 playing against Alabama in Tuscaloosa in program history, and their only win came 41 years ago in 1984. Just as importantly, the Commodores have just one road win over a Top 10 team in program history in 62 tries. And as we already mentioned, the last time that these two teams were ranked when they faced one another — even if it was before World War II — Alabama also won that game.
Again, this is a new era of Vanderbilt football. I'm not denying that, and I would actually contend that we're about to see the best that this program has quite literally ever had to offer. That's how much I believe in Clark Lea and the job he's done in Nashville and will continue to do. At the same time, the gap between Vandy and Alabama was a chasm that even Evel Knievel wouldn't have attempted to cross just a couple of years ago. So even with the Commodores' upswing and a possible step back from the Crimson Tide, I don't think the gap is entirely closed just yet.