If there's one thing we've come to count on during this college football season, it's complete, utter unpredictability. Just when you think you've got a handle on which teams are contenders and which are pretenders, here comes another batch of upsets to flip that silly notion on its head — the sort of country-wide chaos we haven't seen since that fabled 2007 season.
At this point, it's not a matter of whether a top-ranked team will go down to an underdog on a given weekend. It's just a matter how many, and which ones. That's what we're here to try and figure out: While this season has already made all attempts at prediction look foolish, we've given it a shot anyway, identifying five teams that might be walking into a trap this weekend.
No. 10 Vanderbilt needs to be careful of the come-down against No. 15 Missouri (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Vanderbilt football program has quite literally never had it so good. Last Saturday's win over LSU has the Commodores ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll for just the second time ever, and the first time since October of 1937. (For context, Tulane, Georgia Tech and Sewanee were all still in the SEC at the time.) The entire college football world has fallen even more deeply in love with Diego Pavia, and now even College GameDay is set to come to Nashville — just the second time Vandy has ever hosted the program. (The first? A win over No. 14 Auburn back in 2008.)
All of which is tremendous, and the sort of thing that makes college football both so special and so unkillable (no matter how hard certain suits in certain boardrooms might try). And yet, I have a sinking feeling that the party might be short-lived as they face off against a third straight ranked opponent.
Missouri just missed an upset of Alabama a couple of weeks ago, but this is a very sturdy team, one very much still alive in the SEC title race at 6-1 overall and 2-1 in conference. The Tigers can run the heck out of the ball with running backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts and quarterback Beau Pribula, and I have some questions about the interior of Vandy's defense after how efficiently both Bama and LSU ran the ball on the 'Dores. Pavia is capable of winning this game all by himself, but in this conference, the road only gets tougher. And speaking of which ...
No. 3 Texas A&M might be walking into a viper pit against No. 20 LSU (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
I have incredible respect for the job Mike Elko and OC Collin Klein have done with this Aggies team, but I also can't shake the feeling that A&M has been getting away with it for a few weeks now. There was the almost (and probably should-have-been) loss to Notre Dame back in September, of course, and they also looked less than convincing in more recent wins against Auburn, Florida and Arkansas. (The Hogs racked up an eye-watering 8.1 yards per play in the latter game; Taylen Green is really, really good.)
And now the Aggies need to go into Baton Rouge, at night, to face an LSU team that just had its heart ripped out at Vanderbilt on Saturday. Sure, maybe the Tigers will still be licking their wounds and let that loss beat them twice. More likely, though, is that they come out with their hair on fire in front of a raucous home crowd, playing like a team that officially has no margin for error remaining if it wants a shot at the College Football Playoff.
Plus, that Notre Dame game showed us just how shaky this A&M secondary can be, and Garrett Nussmeier finally is starting to look like he's put that oblique injury past him. There are some signs here pointing to an upset, no matter how disappointing LSU's offense has looked to date.
Will a trip to Iowa State be what finally trips up No. 11 BYU? (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
One of these weeks, I'll be right about the Cougars. I've been calling BYU a bit of a paper tiger for a while now, and in my defense, it's a minor miracle that they're still undefeated: They barely survived a trip to Colorado, needed overtime to escape Arizona and trailed Utah in the fourth quarter before ripping off 10 unanswered points to win the Holy War. Credit where credit's due, as this defense is gutsy and true freshman Bear Bachmeier has done enough with his arm and legs to keep the offense afloat. But the resume here is hardly overwhelming.
Iowa State, on the other hand, has been among the more disappointing teams in the Big 12 so far this year, losers of two in a row at Cincinnati and Colorado. But they've had a bye week to prepare for this spot, and there's still plenty of talent on this roster. An overachiever coming off an emotional rivalry week win now traveling to a hostile environment to take on a team that's spent the last 14 days itching to get back onto the field? That sounds like a recipe for an upset to me, doubly so if QB Rocco Becht can avoid throwing the ball to the other team.
Can No. 23 Illinois avoid the time-zone trap at Washington? (3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
They've become the hottest two words in college football in this, the age of conference realignment: body clocks. Time and time again this year, we've seen teams forced to travel cross-country for conference games in which they've come out flat and taken a loss on the road. Now it's Illinois' turn, as Bret Bielema's squad has to head all the way to Seattle to face a very dangerous Washington team at 12:30 p.m. Champaign time.
The Huskies have stalled out against elite competition this year, scoring a total of 13 points in losses to Ohio State and Michigan. Against just about everybody else, though, the big three of QB Demond Williams, RB Jonah Coleman and WR Denzel Boston have been a bear to deal with, averaging nearly 46 points per game in their five wins. If you'd like to know which one of those categories the Illini fall into, please note that this defense gave up 453 yards and six yards per play to Purdue the last time they went on the road.
That seems ... less than ideal, especially factoring in a potentially sluggish start for a team flying over 2,000 miles to the Pacific Northwest. I wouldn't have a ton of faith in Illinois' ability to get stops under normal circumstances, and in this environment, it wouldn't shock me at all if the Huskies sprung the upset.
Houston is good enough to pounce on short-handed No. 24 Arizona State (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
No disrespect to Houston, as Willie Fritz has done an admirable job rebuilding the Coogs into a respectable member of the Big 12's middle class from the rubble of the Dana Holgorsen era. But this has less to do with them and more to do with Arizona State's injury situation, as the Sun Devils will be without star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson for Saturday's game.
It's really hard to overstate just how much Tyson means to this offense. He's accounted for a truly ridiculous 42.4% of ASU's receiving yards this season with 628. The next-closest pass-catcher? Tight end Chamon Metayer ... at 226. Sam Leavitt and Raleek Brown can do some work in the run game, but it's hard not to feel like the Sun Devils will be fighting with a hand tied behind their back. One-dimensional is a tough way for any offense to make a living, much less against a Houston defense that has shown some real teeth at times this year.