Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The College Football Playoff is moving toward expansion, with discussions now focused on whether the field will grow to 16 or 24 teams.
- A 24-team format would add 13 more games to the postseason calendar and shift the start of the regular season to late August.
- The decision timeline hinges on whether conferences can agree before December 2026, with 2027 the earliest possible year for expansion.
It took more than 100 years for college football to adopt a playoff. It took nine seasons for the four-team College Football Playoff to expand. By the time the CFP expanded to 12 teams, additional expansion talk was already off and running. That's partly because the expansion to 12 was debated alongside an even broader change to a field of 16. Obviously, 12 teams won out, and now the debate has shifted to 16 vs. 24.
College Football Playoff expansion is coming. That much has become clear as the movers and shakers in college football debate the merits of models proposed by each conference. It's when, not if.
How the current 12-team CFP format works
- Bids: 12 total; 5 guaranteed for highest-ranked conference champions, 7 at-large
- Seeding: Determined by selection committee
- First round: 4 games; Bye for Seeds 1-4; Seeds 5-8 host Seeds 9-12 in third week of Dec.
- Quarterfinals: 4 games; Seeds 1-4 play first-round winners in rotating bowl games on New Year's Eve/Day
- Semifinals: Quarterfinal winners play in rotating bowl games one week after quarterfinals
- Championship Game: Semifinal winners play at neutral site two weeks after semifinals
The original four-team College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams beginning in 2024. The contract for the 12-team playoff runs through the 2027 season.
The growing push for College Football Playoff expansion
16-team playoff
There are multiple ways a 16-team playoff could be formatted, but the most popular version has been proposed by the SEC. It is commonly referred to as the 5+11 model.
- Bids: 16 total; 5 guaranteed for highest-ranked conference champions, 11 at-large
- Seeding: Determined by selection committee
- First round: 8 games; No byes; Seeds 1-8 host Seeds 16-9 in third week of Dec
- Quarterfinals: 4 games; Seeds 1-4 play first-round winners in rotating bowl games on New Year's Eve/Day
- Semifinals: Quarterfinal winners play in rotating bowl games one week after quarterfinals
- Championship Game: Semifinal winners play at neutral site two weeks after semifinals (late Jan.).
Expanding to 16 teams would be fairly simple with a standard playoff process. Four more teams would be added to the current field. The most drastic change would be eliminating byes for the top four seeds.
24-team playoff
While the SEC has stuck to the 16-team model, the Big Ten is now putting its weight behind a 24-team model. For the sake of consistency, let's call this the 23+1 model.
- Bids: 24 total; 23 at-large, 1 guaranteed to highest-ranked Group of 6 champion
- Seeding: Determined by selection committee
- First round: 8 games; Byes for Seeds 1-8; Seeds 9-16 host Seeds 17-24 in first week of Dec. (in place of conference championship week)
- Second round: 8 games; Seeds 1-8 host first-round winners one week after first round
- Quarterfinals: 4 games; Second-round winners play in rotating bowl games in late Dec.
- Semifinals: 2 games; Quarterfinal winners play in rotating bowl games on New Year's Eve/Day
- Championship Game: Semifinal winners play at neutral site two weeks after semifinal (mid Jan.)
The Big Ten's proposal would guarantee one bid to ensure a Group of 6 team is included in the field each year. However, the 24-team model does not include automatic bids for conference champions. In fact, it will do away with conference championship weekend, using that first week after the regular season for the first round. Another significant calendar change would shift the start of the season to late August, or Week 0, as we currently call it.
Who supports and opposes CFP expansion
24-team supporters: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Notre Dame, FOX
The Big Ten's 24-team proposal has the most momentum, with nearly all the major conferences and Notre Dame supporting the plan. Access is at the heart of support for the 24-team model. While conferences like the Big 12 and ACC feared limited representation relative to the Big Ten and SEC in a 16-team model, the 24-team model essentially ensures all 9-3 or better power conference teams will have a shot.
Revenue is also an undeniable factor. The 24-team playoff will feature 23 games. That's 13 more than the current model and nine more than the SEC's 16-team proposal. More games equals more revenue whether from media rights or ticket sales and concessions.
This could be particularly lucrative for FOX which currently doesn't have a seat at the table when it comes to broadcasting the college football postseason. However, any expansion beyond 16 would trigger a new bidding process for CFP broadcast rights, giving FOX an opening to get in on the action.
16-team supporters: SEC, ESPN/Disney
The SEC has stuck by their 16-team proposal in part because they want to preserve the SEC Championship Game, a massive driver of revenue for the conference. The 24-team model taking over conference championship week is a no-go for the SEC.
But let's be real here: This is all about the proxy war between FOX and ESPN. As it stands, Disney owns the exclusive rights to broadcast the CFP and those rights remain so long as the field stays at 16 or less. So expansion to 16 is perfect for ESPN, and thus the SEC because of their long-term media rights deal with the mouse. They get more games and they don't have to share with FOX.
One note of clarification here: The SEC's official stance is in opposition to the 24-team field. However, reports suggest internal opposition to that level of expansion is actually limited. Joel Klatt of Fox Sports reported 90 percent of coaches and 100 percent of athletic directors in the conference favor the 24-team model.
When could the College Football Playoff expand?
The 12-team playoff is locked for the 2026 season, so competition to be ranked in that top 12 of the college football rankings won't change. However, an expanded field could arrive as soon as 2027.
The key to such a quick turnaround is the timing of the decision. If the college football powers that be can come to an agreement about a 24- or 16-team model before Dec. 1, 2026, the new expanded CFP could be in place for the 2027 season. If no deal is agreed, then the timeline will shift forward to 2028.
There is an agreement ensuring the existence of College Football Playoff through the 2031 season (though that agreement does not specify the number of teams), so theoretically the conferences could keep kicking the can down the road at 12 teams until that agreement expires.
The way the momentum is currently trending, it's more likely expansion of some variety will be agreed upon far sooner. And considering the now overwhelming support for 24 teams at conference, athletic director and coaching levels, it's looking very likely that's the model that ultimately wins out.
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