The first College Football Playoff rankings were released by the selection committee on Tuesday night and 25 teams saw their national championship hopes quantified. Only 12 will qualify for the official bracket but there are a lot more with some sort of chance at competing for a title.
The typical blue bloods like Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia and Notre Dame heard their names called and should be playing meaningful football in December unless something goes terribly wrong. But those that didn't still have time to turn things around.
There's a lot more football to be played this year, so the 25 teams on the list this week are more than likely not going to be the same 25 teams nor the same top 12 that head to the postseason.
5 teams not in the first CFP rankings but still alive to compete for a national championship
Memphis Tigers (8-1)
It's very surprising to not see any Group of Five teams in the first round of CFP rankings. That indicates the committee isn't ready to back any of them as the current favorite to make the playoff. The Tigers are ranked No. 22 in the Associated Press poll for Week 11, so it's not like they are dangling on the fringe of relevance.
However, Memphis does sit behind unranked Navy in the American Athletic Conference standings. If the Tigers continue to win over the final few weeks of the season, they should hear their name called in the following editions of the ranking reveals. Though their only path into the 12-team bracket seems to be winning the conference as a second loss would likely eliminate them and give the opportunity to another Group of Five conference champion.
Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2)
The second place team in the Big 12 didn't hear their name called and that's shocking. Utah got in at No. 13 with the same record but two ranked wins (including over the Bearcats). I'm not saying they should've been that high but inclusion in the Top 25 was certainly warranted considering the AP let them stick around at No. 25.
There is a slim path but a path nonetheless to the 12-team bracket but a lot has to go their way. First, they must win out and then hope one of the three teams ahead of them in the CFP rankings loses at least once down the stretch. An appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game could be enough to boost their resume but winning the conference is, of course, the guaranteed avenue.
James Madison Dukes (7-1)
This is where things could get really interesting. The Dukes received votes in this week's AP poll and are one win away from jumping in, especially with at least one ranked team losing every week this season so far. With the committee hesitant to back a Group of Five team as of yet, they are still very much in the running.
That being said, they can't just win out and hope to be picked. They don't have any ranked wins but their one loss was to Louisville which is a good loss to have especially if the Cardinals reach the ACC Championship Game. The Dukes will need help in the form of the top teams from the AAC and Mountain West owning at least two losses so that their conference championship stands out amongst the rest just based on the math. Could you imagine if Curt Cignetti and Indiana face his old team in the first round?
San Diego State Aztecs (7-1)
It's just about the same story for the Aztecs as it is for the Dukes. They are receiving votes from the AP but are just one or two successful weeks away from entering the fray officially. Barring a disaster (i.e. a loss to Boise State in two weeks), San Diego State should emerge as Mountain West champions. The only problem is SDSU won't have any ranked wins to their name, which will deter the committee from picking them if Memphis doesn't stumble. The Aztecs need help but it's certainly not out of the question with how much chaos has already taken place this year.
Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3)
Okay, bear with me here. Yes, three losses typically eliminates any team but I'm still toying with the Sun Devils going on a run to just win the Big 12 outright like they did last year. They need a lot of help but there are multiple teams that can act as spoiler for teams like BYU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati and Utah over the final month of play.
If ASU handles business and each of those teams loses at least once (tiebreaker over Texas Tech), then it could meet BYU in Dallas for the title game. Even without Sam Leavitt at quarterback, we saw Jeff Sims prove he's still got something left in the tank. What a story it would be to see a Super Senior like him lead the program on another unlikely title run.