College football is a game of sure-things and frauds. It can be hard to tell them apart in the first month of the season. What we think in August can change drastically by October. Sometimes, the reckoning comes even earlier than that.
In Week 1, there were three matchups between ranked teams and the lower ranked team won each one. The teams and players we think will dominate don't always live up to our standards. Sometimes, they crash and burn.
So let's look at the five teams in college football with the fraud label already stuck to their backs.
5. Indiana
I'll be completely honest: I thought it was far more likely Illinois would be the Big Ten sleeper to take a step back this year. While Indiana would be breaking in a new quarterback, I was thoroughly impressed with Fernando Mendoza at Cal and my respect for Curt Cignetti's ability to get his team ready to play was sky-high, even with some personnel turnover.
I don't want to overreact too much to Week 1, but Indiana was far from impressive against Old Dominion. Remember, this team rolled through everyone they played last year, so long as their opponent wasn't ranked. A 31-7 win over FIU in Week 1 was as close as it got in their out of conference slate.
So yeah, a 27-14 win over ODU just didn't look...right. The Hoosiers led by seven at halftime. Twice they gave up 70-yard touchdowns to Monarchs quarterback Colton Joseph.
Mendoza was 18-of-31 for 193 yards through the air. It could be early rust he needs to shake off, but the QB needs to clean things up before tougher opposition comes around. It's worth remembering that he was an up-and-down player at Cal. Is he ready to lead a playoff hopeful? The jury is still out.
Maybe this is harsh on Indiana, but they're flirting with the big leagues. This is how top teams are judged.
4. Kansas State
No team in the preseason Top 25 has had a worse start to the season than the Kansas State Wildcats. A disappointing trip to Ireland and a 24-21 loss to Iowa State wasn't the ideal way to open the campaign, but it certainly wasn't a complete embarrassment. They were supposed to come home and get the bad taste out of their mouths with a game against 27.5-point underdogs North Dakota.
That's not North Dakota State, the FCS powerhouse, by the way. That's the Fighting Hawks, an FCS program coming off a 5-7 record in 2024. K-State needed a touchdown in the final minute to beat them...yikes.
Trailing by 10 going into the fourth quarter, North Dakota flipped the script with a 22-yard touchdown pass and 20-yard scoring run. Avery Johnson threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns and still his team had their lives on the line and the clock ticking down to the final whistle.
The Wildcats were widely considered one of the top teams in the Big 12. They were supposed to factor into the conference title race. The Week 0 speed bump was one thing. Nearly falling to an FCS team in Week 1 should have everyone questioning this team.
3. Boise State
What is Boise State without Austin Jeanty? It didn't take long to find out.
The Broncos fell to South Florida to start the post-Jeanty era off with a whimper. They averaged 3.2 yards per carry. Starting QB Maddux Madsen and their top two running backs, Malik Sherrod and Sire Gaines all lost fumbles. Boise State scored just seven points. The last time they were held to a touchdown or less was 2019 in a Vegas Bowl loss to Washington.
USF isn't a pushover. And facing them in Tampa in August is even tougher. The Broncos can reset in Week 2 against Eastern Washington and still go on to win the Mountain West. First, they'll have to find their identity. I'm not sure what that is without a Heisman winner in their backfield.
Boise State is a fraud, not because they're a bad football team. They'll likely win a whole lot of games. But their playoff window closed the moment Jeanty walked out the door.
2. Kalen DeBoer and Alabama
Alabama's Week 1 loss to Florida State was equal parts shocking and unsurprising. If you had told me before the season that someone would humble the Crimson Tide and prove that maybe they're not a Top 10 team, I'd have nodded. "Yeah, I can see that." I just wouldn't have predicted it to happen this early, or against Florida State. The fact that the Seminoles completely dismantled Bama, now that was stunning.
The thing is, it wasn't just a loss. Alabama couldn't run the ball. Nor could they stop the run. They were physically outmatched by FSU, who looked bigger, stronger and faster than their opponents throughout. Was that actually Bama out there? Are we sure they didn't get body snatched on their way to the stadium?
It's wild to think of how prescient Tommy Castellanos was when he said, "They don't have Nick Saban to save them." I'll go to bat for Kalen DeBoer. He's a good coach. But it's starting to become pretty damn clear he's not the right coach for Alabama. That wasn't Alabama football we saw at Doak Campbell Stadium.
The best case scenario for the Tide is that Florida State is just really good and woefully underrated coming into the season. This loss could age well on paper. But it'll be hard to forget what the eye test told us here.
1. Arch Manning
I can't remember a more highly anticipated first start in college football. Or a bigger dud than Arch Manning's against Ohio State. His stat line was unimpressive, taking the L while going 17-of-30 for 170 yards, with a touchdown and interception. And it doesn't even begin to tell the whole story.
I distinctly remember Matt Barkley's first road test as a true freshman at USC in 2009. It came at Ohio State as well. He went 15-of-31 for 195 yards and an interception. Similar stats, but very different performances, because Barkley's outing was more unspectacular than bad. He maintained his composure surprisingly well for a first time starter in a hostile environment and led a final scoring drive to win 18-15.
Arch missed his opportunity to do the same by missing far too many throws to give his team a chance. If it had just been a tough outing against a good defense, I'd be quicker to shrug it off. But his problems weren't entirely caused by Ohio State. On top of the mental lapses you'd expect from a first-time starter, there were lapses of technique. That's a much more concerning issue. There were so many errant throws, even without significant pressure. He skipped his first throw and never seemed to clear the mechanism after that. His second-to-last throw of the game, on third-and-5, he put the ball so far behind his receiver it fell incomplete instead of easily moving the chains.
Manning could turn this around. He's undoubtedly talented. He might just need time to put it all together. There's nothing wrong with that — unless you're the preseason darling everyone expects to win a Heisman and a national title. Those achievements feel like pipe dreams right about now.