What the Heisman Trophy race lacks in true top-end stars this year, it more than makes up for in controversy. You could argue for any of the current favorites to win college football’s highest award should claim the trophy, with of course the quarterbacks being at the forefront. It’s largely been a quarterback’s award of late, so it should be a surprise that all five favorites are QBs right now.
But it feels like it’s either Fernando Mendoza or Julian Sayin’s race to lose. Of course, over the final month of the season, a lot could change. Did Mendoza really have a Heisman moment at Penn State, or was it simply a good drive (and an all-time catch) amid a rough game? Does Sayin’s unreal accuracy and production more than validate his Heisman campaign against a relatively soft schedule? What about Texas A&M's Marcel Reed, who’s becoming less of a dark horse and more of a serious contender?
There’s a lot to dive in when it comes down to the Heisman Trophy, so let’s make the case for every favorite as things stand. All betting odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Julian Sayin, Ohio State Buckeyes
Odds: +165
The case for Sayin
It’s hard to argue what Sayin has done this season. He’s dissected every defense he’s faced as a redshirt freshman, and he’s been incredibly accurate, completing 81 percent of his passes. According to ESPN, he has the highest QBR in college football with a 91.1 as well. Statistically speaking, he’s thrown for 2,491 yards with 24 touchdowns and four interceptions, and his pick against Purdue on Saturday was his first since Week 3.
There’s a reason why Sayin is atop the Heisman Trophy odds. He just might be the best quarterback to play at Ohio State since CJ Stroud and could be one of the best in decades, and he's carrying an offense that doesn't have much of a running game to speak of right now. You could do a lot worse than a quarterback playing excellent football for the No. 1 team in the country.
The case against Sayin
As good as Sayin’s been, we have to contextualize his breakthrough. He can’t control who the Buckeyes play, only how well he plays, but Ohio State hasn’t really faced a gauntlet of defenses this season. Texas is the best they’ve faced, and ironically that was Sayin's worst game of the season, though it was also his first start at Ohio State. For Sayin to truly separate himself from the pack, he needs to play well against Michigan in a few weeks.
That game is more than just for bragging rights for Sayin; he has a chance to finally get that marquee win he needs. Ohio State has been fortunate enough to have its toughest games of the season at home so far this year. The Michigan game will have a bigger spotlight than the Texas game, on the road in Ann Arbor. If Sayin shreds the Wolverines, it might be what gets him the Heisman, but if he struggles, it could sink him.
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana Hoosiers
Odds: +165
The case for Mendoza
If you wanted to know why Mendoza should be lifting the Heisman Trophy in about a month, look no further than the Penn State game. I know people are going to criticize how poorly he played for most of the day, but you have to remember that even through adversity, how you respond determines your worth. Mendoza responded with a game-winning drive that saved Indiana’s CFP hopes and should solidify his Heisman campaign – as long as he doesn’t throw it away over the next few weeks.
This season, Mendoza has looked similar to Sayin with one caveat: Mendoza and the Hoosiers have had a tougher schedule. They’ve had to play at Penn State and at Oregon this season, and he won both. Knock Mendoza all you want for struggling in Happy Valley, but he made the biggest plays when his team needed him to, and that’s what Heisman winners do.
The case against Mendoza
While the Penn State game could be his biggest nod, it could also be his biggest indictment. I’m not biased enough to ignore that a 3-5 Nittany Lions team forced him into his worst performance of the season. I’m also not naive enough to ignore that just the week before Sayin carved up that same Penn State team. Mendoza hasn’t been nearly as accurate as Sayin and has thrown an interception in each of the last three games.
Stats don’t tell the whole story, impact does. But if you look at last year’s Heisman Trophy race, it came down to raw numbers. If impact mattered more, you could argue Ashton Jeanty should have won while leading Boise State to the CFP. If Mendoza doesn’t clean up his throws, it might be what holds him back from an otherwise remarkable season.
Ty Simpson, Alabama Crimson Tide
Odds: +500
The case for Simpson
Ty Simpson has been in the thick of the Heisman conversation this year, leading Alabama to eight straight wins after a season-opening loss to Florida State. The Crimson Tide are back in the mix for a CFP spot as well, and the fact that he went from being public enemy No. 1 in Tuscaloosa to Heisman favorite is worthy of applause.
Simpson has been great at protecting the ball this year, with just one interception against Vanderbilt last month. He’s thrown for 21 touchdowns with 2,461 yards as well. Like Sayin and Mendoza, on paper he’s as good as any other quarterback this year. Alabama hasn’t had a Heisman winner at the position since Bryce Young, and while he'll have a tough road ahead, Simpson could break that streak.
The case against Simpson
Simpson’s biggest problem to me is his accuracy. For a quarterback that has really good numbers, he has a sub-70 percent completion rate. The SEC is hard and I’m not going to drag him just for that, but he has to make smarter throws if he wants to strengthen his resume. He’s in a race against the most accurate quarterback in the country this season (Sayin) and a one-man offense in Mendoza. It won’t be easy to crash the Heisman race if he doesn’t play better and smarter.
Marcel Reed, Texas A&M Aggies
Odds: +850
The case for Reed
It’s easy to want Marcel Reed to win the Heisman. Texas A&M is one of three undefeated teams left in FBS and he’s been electric. He’s throwing the ball well, with 2,193 yards and 16 touchdown passes (though he does have six interceptions). His biggest advantage over everyone else ahead of him is that he’s a true dual threat: He has 378 rushing yards with six rushing touchdowns so far this season.
Reed can get into the thick of the Heisman race, but it will take more than just winning. If he keeps using his dynamic ability as a runner, it could make up for not being the strongest passer in the field.
The case against Reed
The biggest reason Reed will have a hard time joining a Heisman race dominated by Mendoza and Sayin is that he’s just not that strong of a thrower. His completion percentage is hovering around 60 percent and he’s thrown the most interceptions of any Heisman favorite. As good of a runner as he is, unless he was closing in on 1,000 rushing yards, it’s hard to value his dual-threat ability that highly.
Dual-threat quarterbacks aren’t a phenomenon anymore, so he needs to do more as a passer to strengthen his Heisman resume. Obviously winning is the most important thing for him, but if he wants to join Mendoza and Sayin at the top, he has to look exceptional as a passer to end the season, specifically against the stronger teams left on the Aggies’ schedule.
Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt Commodores
Odds: +2000
The case for Pavia
It’s hard not to want Pavia to win the Heisman Trophy. Between his extremely college football story and the fact that he’s made Vanderbilt football relevant over the span of just two years, he’s earned the right to be considered. He also has the numbers to back it up: He’s thrown for 2,440 with 21 touchdowns and five interceptions while running for 613 yards and seven more touchdowns this season.
Though the Commodores dropped road games to Texas and Alabama, Vandy is still in the CFP mix and that’s almost entirely because of Pavia. If the Commodores sneak into the Playoff, you have to think about Pavia, at worst, being a finalist, and seriously forcing his way into the contender conversation.
The case against Pavia
Though he’s been relatively accurate, boasting a 70-percent completion rate, it’s all about consistency. Before throwing for nearly 400 yards in each of the last two games, Pavia had three straight games with less than 200 passing yards while completing 59 percent of his throws during that stretch. He’s also had five total games with less than 200 passing yards. You can argue that he’s the best running quarterback in college football, but he has to pass at a high level too.