James Franklin can’t afford another disappointing end to the season. Last year, Franklin led Penn State to their only College Football Playoff appearance, winning two games before falling to Notre Dame in the semifinals. Last season felt like anything less than a CFP appearance would mean he could probably never get there. Now, it’s about contending for a national championship.
Franklin won’t be allowed to lose too many more big games before the uncomfortable questions arise. He’s been given an extremely long leash in Happy Valley, but at some point, he has to start winning the big games. Penn State hasn’t won the Big Ten since 2016, and they routinely struggled against the best teams and biggest conference rivals over that span.
Over the last few years, the only team Penn State can beat is Michigan State. They've struggled against both Michigan, losing the last three matchups and Ohio State. Penn State’s last win over Ohio State was back in 2016, Franklin’s only win against the Buckeyes. Franklin struggles to win in the big games and another loss to Big Ten newbie, Oregon, would all bring on the critical spotlight he can’t seem to avoid.
Penn State’s game against Oregon is a test for James Franklin
Penn State and Franklin need a win, not just because it’s a Big Ten foe and the first real test for either team this season, but because if Penn State loses to Oregon and Ohio State this year, assuming it beats Indiana, the Nittany Lions could realistically go 10-2 and miss the College Football Playoff. The only thing worse than losing to the two best teams on their schedule is missing the CFP because of it.
That’s such a Franklin move and that’s why he won’t get off scot free if he isn’t able to win these big games. Last year, he got away with losing to Ohio State because the Nittany Lions were able to reach the Big Ten game and subsequently land in the CFP field thanks to an expanded bracket.
But at some point, the Penn State administration will have to see that Franklin has already hit his ceiling. He can’t win the big games and isn’t an annual threat to contend for a national championship. Ten-win seasons aren’t good enough for Franklin anymore. He needs to start winning the big games and beating the big teams. That starts with Oregon this week. Anything less than a win and nothing else he does this season will matter; unless he beats Ohio State.
Can James Franklin survive at Penn State without a College Football Playoff appearance this year?
Franklin realistically can survive at Penn State if he doesn’t reach the College Football Playoff this year, but it’s not because the administration will be pleased with what he’s done, rather because there may not be a coach worth replacing him with. That said, if the right name comes about, I’m sure the Nittany Lions will entertain it.
Reaching the College Football Playoff isn’t easy, but Penn State is in the best position to do it each year. Essentially, as long as they reach the Big Ten championship game, they are most likely guaranteed one of the 12 seeds. This year, though, they could potentially lose the two biggest games on the schedule and end up missing the playoff altogether.
This team has been ranked in the top 5 all season and could quickly fall out of the top 20 with losses to Oregon and Ohio State and possibly even Indiana. I don’t think Franklin returns next year if they lose to all three of their ranked opponents, and there’s an argument to be had about firing him if he loses to Ohio State and Oregon.
The 2025 season probably has more pressure on Franklin than last year. Because Penn State struggles to win the important games, the only way Franklin can prove he’s the best coach for the team is by reaching the CFP pretty much every year. This year, that will be a tough task if he doesn’t actually win the big games on the schedule.