Where have all the good coaches gone, and where are all the Smarts? Where's the streetwise Schembechler to fight the rising odds? Isn't there a Miles or Holtz upon a fiery steed? Late at night, they toss and turn and dream of what they need. Unfortunately for the LSU Tigers, Penn State Nittany Lions, Florida Gators and many others already riding the college football coaching carousel looking for a hero...things are looking pretty sparse.
On Thursday, Nebraska locked in head coach Matt Rhule, who had been heavily linked to the Penn State job. Rhule got a two-year extension, pushing his contract with the Cornhuskers through 2032. The two extra years tacked onto the back of his current contract will pay him $12.5 million each, according to Pete Thamel.
Indiana's Curt Cignetti got an extension after last season, with a prohibitive buyout on both sides. Dan Lanning's extension after winning the Big Ten with Oregon is also likely to keep him in Eugene for the foreseeable future.
More extensions are sure to follow Matt Rhule's
Other popular names attached to coaching opportunities could just as easily leverage the interest into lucrative extensions as well. There's massive incentive for Georgia Tech, Louisville, Missouri and Vanderbilt to find a way to keep Brent Key, Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz and Clark Lea in place. The fact that Key, Brohm and Lea are alumni of their current universities only make it more likely they'll opt for an extension over a job change.
That's not to say those coaches won't jump at the opportunity to take the reins of a program with national title success this century, like Florida or LSU. Or that they won't see the strong foundations already laid at Penn State as the perfect place to rebuild a national power. But this isn't the college football landscape of 20 or even 10 years ago, when the job hierarchies were more clear and stepping stone programs had to assume their successful coach would eventually leave for a blue blood.
Even Lane Kiffin, the clear top prize in the market, doesn't have to leave Ole Miss to reach the pinnacle of college football success. Nick Saban himself is advocating for the Rebels.
The 12-team College Football Playoff has evened the playing field. It's not outside the realm of possibility for the Rebels to give Kiffin the financial security he needs while legitimately arguing he can win national titles in Oxford. Why rebuild in Gainesville or Baton Rouge when you've already got things rolling at Ole Miss.
The grass isn't always greener on the side, just ask Brian Kelly
These days, coaches who have made lateral(ish) moves have been left sorely disappointed. Kalen DeBoer's start at Alabama has been rocky. Even if he's starting to figure things out, he's always one loss from being the most hated man in Tuscaloosa. Lincoln Riley has a worse record (30-15) after 45 games than Clay Helton (31-14) at USC. Brian Kelly left Notre Dame to seek the heights he couldn't reach with the Fighting Irish. Now he's out of a job despite winning 70 percent of his games. Jimbo Fisher went from respected national title winner at Florida State to a joke at Texas A&M.
Success is never a given. Even coaches who have gotten things to work like a well-oiled machine in one spot may find it hard to operate in a new environment. Coaches have to take that into account. They're better positioned to take that into account, too.
Extensions may be more lucrative than what the top jobs can offer anyways
So where does this all leave the schools with open jobs? Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Stanford, UCLA, Virginia Tech and others are on the job hunt. Tigers (~$50 million), Nittany Lions ($49 million) and Gators ($21 million) owe significant buyouts, to the point they may not have the financial flexibility to drop a bag in front of their favored candidate.
The governor of Louisiana, Jeff Landry, has already publicly railed against the massive financial burden LSU is bearing after their string of coaching buyouts.
"Right now, we have a $53 million liability, and we are not doing that again," Landry said on Wednesday.
Is that what Lane Kiffin wants to hear as he considers whether it's time to uproot his life and take a new job? In fact, every second of Landry's press conference may have given Kiffin new reason to favor an extension.