Predicting how many Big 12 teams will be ranked in the first AP poll

The upper quartile of the Big 12 will be strong, but who will be joining Arizona State there in 2025?
Joey McGuire, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Joey McGuire, Texas Tech Red Raiders | John E. Moore III/GettyImages

I do not know if it is going to happen, but I would love to see the Big 12 get two teams into the 12-team College Football Playoff for this season. Arizona State had a season for the ages last fall, but can Kenny Dillingham's Sun Devils back it up? Most prognosticators expect that they will, as he has awoken the sleeping giant in the Valley of the Sun. But outside of ASU, who else is going to be good?

In the Preseason Coaches Poll, the Big 12 had five teams crack the top 25. After Arizona State coming in at No. 11, we have Kansas State at No. 20, Iowa State at No. 22, BYU at No. 23 and Texas Tech at No. 24. That tells me the coaching collective thinks one of those four teams will likely pay ASU in Arlington, but that is it. Other teams after Texas Tech received votes in the Big 12 in this major poll.

In case you need to see what the US LBM Coaches Poll entails for the preseason, I have you covered.

Preseason Coaches Poll for 2025 college football season

  1. Texas Longhorns: 1,606 points (28 first-place votes)
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes: 1,565 points (20 first-place votes)
  3. Penn State Nittany Lions: 1,525 points (14 first-place votes)
  4. Georgia Bulldogs: 1,466 points (3 first-place votes)
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 1,360 points
  6. Clemson Tigers: 1,324 points (2 first-place votes)
  7. Oregon Ducks: 1,307 points
  8. Alabama Crimson Tide: 1,210 points
  9. LSU Tigers: 1,056 points
  10. Miami Hurricanes; 823 points
  11. Arizona State Sun Devils: 806 points
  12. Illinois Fighting Illini: 734 points
  13. South Carolina Gamecocks: 665 points
  14. Michigan Wolverines: 580 points
  15. Ole Miss Rebels: 573 points
  16. SMU Mustangs: 555 points
  17. Florida Gators: 498 points
  18. Tennessee Volunteers: 492 points
  19. Indiana Hoosiers: 460 points
  20. Kansas State Wildcats: 438 points
  21. Texas A&M Aggies: 392 points
  22. Iowa State Cyclones: 392 points
  23. BYU Cougars: 287 points
  24. Texas Tech Red Raiders: 261 points
  25. Boise State Broncos: 246 points

To help round out my arguments in this post, here is every other team that received at least one vote.

  • Oklahoma Sooners: 221 points
  • Missouri Tigers: 142 points
  • Louisville Cardinals: 126 points
  • USC Trojans: 116 points
  • Utah Utes: 86 points
  • Baylor Bears: 76 points
  • Auburn Tigers: 50 points
  • Iowa Hawkeyes: 49 points
  • Memphis Tigers: 34 points
  • Army Black Knights: 33 points
  • Tulane Green Wave: 31 points
  • Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 27 points
  • TCU Horned Frogs: 24 points
  • Nebraska Cornhuskers: 19 points
  • Syracuse Orange: 16 points
  • Washington Huskies: 15 points
  • Navy Midshipmen: 14 points
  • Arkansas Razorbacks: 14 points
  • Duke Blue Devils: 12 points
  • Colorado Buffaloes: 12 points
  • Minnesota Golden Gophers: 11 points
  • UNLV Rebels: 8 points
  • Florida State Seminoles: 8 points
  • Kansas Jayhawks: 6 points
  • Vanderbilt Commodores: 3 points
  • Buffalo Bulls: 1 point

Outside of the five teams who are ranked, the Big 12 also had five more of its teams receive votes. Utah and Baylor are not far off Texas Tech's trail of making a top 25 appearance. TCU is probably too far back with only 24 points. Colorado definitely is with just 12 points. And look at Kansas getting six points after a sub-.500 season from a year ago. It just goes to show how incredible Lance Leipold is.

So without further ado, let's take a look at what teams in the Big 12 are going to make the AP Top 25.

What Big 12 teams are going to make the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll?

I have put all 16 Big 12 teams into four categories: Locks, probables, borderlines and not a chance...

  • Locks (1): Arizona State
  • Probables (2): Kansas State, Iowa State
  • Borderlines (4): BYU, Texas Tech, Utah, Baylor
  • Not a Chance (9): TCU, Colorado, Kansas, Houston, Cincinnati, Arizona, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia

Arizona State is the only definitive lock I have to crack the AP Top 25 out of the Big 12 this preseason. The Sun Devils are my pick to repeat as Big 12 champions and make the College Football Playoff in back-to-back years. My two probables are Kansas State and Iowa State. Whoever comes out on top in Farmageddon overseas in Dublin may be the presumptive favorite to get to Arlington to play ASU.

As far as borderline candidates are concerned, that is where I have BYU, Texas Tech, Utah and Baylor. I could see any of these four being ranked. Of the four, I am very high on Utah because of Devon Dampier coming over at quarterback from New Mexico. Conversely, I am down on BYU because the Cougars lost Jake Retzlaff to the transfer portal for scandalous reasons. The AP might see differently.

Even though TCU, Colorado and Kansas all received votes, they are too far back in my opinion to climb over that many teams into the top 25. They need to earn their worth this season. As for the other six Big 12 teams, Houston and Cincinnati could be good, or terrible... I am not expecting bounce-back years for Arizona or Oklahoma State. UCF and West Virginia are rebuilding with legends.

So it really all comes down to how I feel about the four borderline candidates of BYU, Texas Tech, Utah and Baylor. While I think Baylor and Utah have the chance to be really good, we are not going to not for sure until conference play commences. They both must beat Auburn and UCLA respectively in the non-conference. I am quite down on BYU, but I might be willing to give Texas Tech one last chance...

While Texas Tech holds onto its top 25 ranking, BYU is probably going to fall out of the top 25 Monday.

  • Arizona State Sun Devils
  • Kansas State Wildcats
  • Iowa State Cyclones
  • Texas Tech Red Raiders

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