Predicting how many SEC teams will be ranked in the first AP poll

If nine SEC teams are top 25 teams in the eyes of the coaches, how about the Associated Press?
Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri Tigers
Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri Tigers | Johnnie Izquierdo/GettyImages

Once again, we are reminded that we live in a Power Four world. Entering the second year of the latest big wave of conference realignment in major college football, we are starting to come to grips with the fact that teams like Oklahoma and Texas play in the SEC, Oregon and USC in the Big Ten, Arizona State and BYU in the Big 12, and SMU in the ACC. Cal and Stanford in the ACC still seems so weird...

Regardless, Monday provided us with healthy helpings of discussion when it came to the Preseason Coaches Poll being released. The coaching collective came together to provide us with some insight into who they think might be the best teams in college football. This is only our guiding light for a week until the AP Top 25 Poll comes out next week. Then, we must wait a bit for the playoff rankings.

For those who have not seen it or need a reminder of what it is, here is the US LBM Coaches Poll.

Preseason Coaches Poll for 2025 college football season

  1. Texas Longhorns: 1,606 points (28 first-place votes)
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes: 1,565 points (20 first-place votes)
  3. Penn State Nittany Lions: 1,525 points (14 first-place votes)
  4. Georgia Bulldogs: 1,466 points (3 first-place votes)
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 1,360 points
  6. Clemson Tigers: 1,324 points (2 first-place votes)
  7. Oregon Ducks: 1,307 points
  8. Alabama Crimson Tide: 1,210 points
  9. LSU Tigers: 1,056 points
  10. Miami Hurricanes; 823 points
  11. Arizona State Sun Devils: 806 points
  12. Illinois Fighting Illini: 734 points
  13. South Carolina Gamecocks: 665 points
  14. Michigan Wolverines: 580 points
  15. Ole Miss Rebels: 573 points
  16. SMU Mustangs: 555 points
  17. Florida Gators: 498 points
  18. Tennessee Volunteers: 492 points
  19. Indiana Hoosiers: 460 points
  20. Kansas State Wildcats: 438 points
  21. Texas A&M Aggies: 392 points
  22. Iowa Sate Cyclones: 392 points
  23. BYU Cougars: 287 points
  24. Texas Tech Red Raiders: 261 points
  25. Boise State Broncos: 246 points

For further context, here is a list of every college football team that received at least one point, too.

  • Oklahoma Sooners: 221 points
  • Missouri Tigers: 142 points
  • Louisville Cardinals: 126 points
  • USC Trojans: 116 points
  • Utah Utes: 86 points
  • Baylor Bears: 76 points
  • Auburn Tigers: 50 points
  • Iowa Hawkeyes: 49 points
  • Memphis Tigers: 34 points
  • Army Black Knights: 33 points
  • Tulane Green Wave: 31 points
  • Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 27 points
  • TCU Horned Frogs: 24 points
  • Nebraska Cornhuskers: 19 points
  • Syracuse Orange: 16 points
  • Washington Huskies: 15 points
  • Navy Midshipmen: 14 points
  • Arkansas Razorbacks: 14 points
  • Duke Blue Devils: 12 points
  • Colorado Buffaloes: 12 points
  • Minnesota Golden Gophers: 11 points
  • UNLV Rebels: 8 points
  • Florida State Seminoles: 8 points
  • Kansas Jayhawks: 6 points
  • Vanderbilt Commodores: 3 points
  • Buffalo Bulls: 1 point

Now that we have seen roughly the 50 best teams college football sprawled out in front of us, I am now wondering how many of those teams will make the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll out of the SEC. A few teams like Georgia and Texas will be locks. Others such as Florida and Texas A&M will be probable inclusions. As for a few others, I wonder where the line of demarcation will be when sizing up the field.

Here is my best guess of what SEC will be cracking the top 25 of the Preseason AP Poll on Monday.

What SEC teams are going to make the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll?

Right now, here is how I would group all 16 SEC teams, based on their chances of making the top 25.

  • Locks (6): Georgia, Texas, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina
  • Probables (2): Florida, Texas A&M
  • Borderlines (3): Oklahoma, Tennessee, Missouri
  • Not a Chance (5): Auburn, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State

Since Georgia and Texas are locks to make the College Football Playoff at this time, they are obvious inclusions inside of the top five. Between Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and South Carolina, those are probably your four next best chances of getting a third, fourth or more teams into the playoff. Alabama and LSU will probably be top 10. Ole Miss and South Carolina are both comfortably top 20.

I may only have two probables in Florida and Texas A&M, mostly because I cannot fathom either team not starting the year ranked. Florida finished last year with some positive momentum. Texas A&M has great players and a phenomenal head coach in Mike Elko. As for the three borderline candidates, I am not sold on Tennessee at all. I also think that people will be touch and go with Oklahoma and Missouri.

And as far as the five teams that do not have a chance to start the season ranked, I feel bad grouping Auburn and Vanderbilt into the same cluster as teams that I do not think are going to do anything in Arkansas, Kentucky and Mississippi State. Auburn and Vanderbilt should be bowl teams, possibly cracking the top 25 at various points of the season if the Tigers and Commodores win eight games.

So for the sake of argument, the six teams I have listed as locks and the two as probable are all making it in. There spots inside of the AP Top 25 feel largely justified at this point in time. As for the three borderline candidates between Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee, I think two crack the top 25. I am leaning Oklahoma and Tennessee over Missouri, although I am especially down on the Vols.

At this point in time, I believe 10 SEC teams will be among the top 25 teams in the Preseason AP Poll.

  • Georgia Bulldogs
  • Texas Longhorns
  • Alabama Crimson Tide
  • LSU Tigers
  • Ole Miss Rebels
  • South Carolina Gamecocks
  • Florida Gators
  • Texas A&M Aggies
  • Oklahoma Sooners
  • Tennessee Volunteers

Not all will finish the season ranked inside of the top 25, but I bet they all will be ranked to start it.

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