It took just one conference title game on Saturday to clarify the College Football Playoff bracket, like a set of windshield wipers sweeps away the first sprinkles of rain. Texas Tech beat BYU 34-7 in the Big 12 championship game. The Red Raiders' elite defense gave up a first quarter touchdown run, then clamped down and smothered the Cougars. QB Behren Morton took it from there, leading his offense to 34-unanswered points. The blowout nature of the win was music to the ears of Notre Dame fans. The Irish look to benefit from the outcome more than anyone.
Only two teams have officially locked in their bids for the playoff: Texas Tech and Tulane. The Red Raiders will almost certainly occupy one of the first round byes. The Green Wave are guaranteed no worse than the No. 12 seed. Here's where the projected bracket stands going into the SEC title game.
Projected College Football Playoff Bracket
First Round | Quarterfinals |
|---|---|
(12) Tulane vs. (5) Oregon | (4) Texas Tech vs. 12/5 winner |
(9) Notre Dame (8) Oklahoma | (1) Ohio State vs. 9/8 winner |
(11) Virginia vs. (6) Ole Miss | (3) Indiana vs. 11/6 winner |
(10) Alabama vs. (7) Texas A&M | (2) Georgia vs. 10/7 winner |
We're keeping this simple by leaning on the CFP selection committee's own hierarchy of teams and oddsmakers' expectations for the conference title games. That puts Virginia in the field as the favorite in the ACC title game and Georgia in the first round byes as the expected winner of the SEC title game. Ohio State is the presumptive No. 1 seed because they're favored over Indiana, who only drops one spot despite suffering their first loss.
The first round of the bracket is much more intriguing
Notre Dame's odds of getting in went way up thanks to Texas Tech
Debates will rage over whether Notre Dame or Miami deserves to be in the field of 12. The thing is, the committee has already given us their answer to that debate. Despite a 10-2 record and a head-to-head loss to the Hurricanes at the beginning of the season, the Irish were ranked ahead of their ACC competition. ND has a more impressive resume. It's that simple.
The BYU question was also answered handily by Texas Tech. Notre Dame started the week ahead of the Cougars. They're not going to move up after suffering a 27-point loss in the conference title game. The committee doesn't want to punish teams that played in on championship weekend, but they're not going to reward them just for playing (and getting their ass kicked).
If BYU had won the Big 12 title, Notre Dame would have been in trouble. They didn't so the Irish will be in the playoff and the Cougars will be in the Alamo Bowl in all likelihood.
Alabama's disaster scenario is off the table
At 10-2 and playing in the SEC title game against Georgia, Alabama was one of the more intriguing teams this weekend. If they lost to the Bulldogs after BYU locked in a spot in the field, would the committee drop the Crimson Tide from the bracket? That would mean legitimately punishing a team for playing the extra game, while rewarding a team like Notre Dame or Miami for not playing. And the committee has said they don't want to do that. What the committee says and does are not always the same thing, though. Alabama would have three losses in that case. The only three-loss team to ever make the playoff got in via an autobid (granted, that's a one-year sample size in the 12-team era).
BYU's loss makes the decision much easier. It seems highly unlikely Notre Dame and Miami would get in over Alabama, even with three losses. The Crimson Tide can guarantee their participation by upsetting Georgia. At the same time, they should be able to breathe easy knowing the Big 12 is only getting one bid.