Easier said than done, but I have a feeling the AFCA has a pretty good feel as to who some of the best college football teams in the country are. On Monday, they released their first Coaches Poll of the preseason while we continue to wait for the preseason AP Top 25 to be released. Obviously, there is and was a lot to discuss. I do not agree with it all, but it does have pretty good bones to it. Could it help us predict who will make and win the College Football Playoff?
We still have to play all the games, but I will say this. The top seven teams who made the Coaches Poll are all essentially locks to make the playoff at this time: Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson and Oregon. You would have to make a strong argument to not have at least six of them in your field, probably all seven in my estimation. Again, we have a whole season to be played...
Here is what the first US LBM Coaches Poll had to provide us during the first week of August 2025.
Preseason coaches' poll for 2025
- Texas Longhorns: 1,606 points (28 first-place votes)
- Ohio State Buckeyes: 1,565 points (20 first-place votes)
- Penn State Nittany Lions: 1,525 points (14 first-place votes)
- Georgia Bulldogs: 1,466 points (3 first-place votes)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 1,360 points
- Clemson Tigers: 1,324 points (2 first-place votes)
- Oregon Ducks: 1,307 points
- Alabama Crimson Tide: 1,210 points
- LSU Tigers: 1,056 points
- Miami Hurricanes; 823 points
- Arizona State Sun Devils: 806 points
- Illinois Fighting Illini: 734 points
- South Carolina Gamecocks: 665 points
- Michigan Wolverines: 580 points
- Ole Miss Rebels: 573 points
- SMU Mustangs: 555 points
- Florida Gators: 498 points
- Tennessee Volunteers: 492 points
- Indiana Hoosiers: 460 points
- Kansas State Wildcats: 438 points
- Texas A&M Aggies: 392 points
- Iowa Sate Cyclones: 392 points
- BYU Cougars: 287 points
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: 261 points
- Boise State Broncos: 246 points
For a bit more context, here is every other team that received at least one vote in the Coaches Poll.
- Oklahoma Sooners: 221 points
- Missouri Tigers: 142 points
- Louisville Cardinals: 126 points
- USC Trojans: 116 points
- Utah Utes: 86 points
- Baylor Bears: 76 points
- Auburn Tigers: 50 points
- Iowa Hawkeyes: 49 points
- Memphis Tigers: 34 points
- Army Black Knights: 33 points
- Tulane Green Wave: 31 points
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 27 points
- TCU Horned Frogs: 24 points
- Nebraska Cornhuskers: 19 points
- Syracuse Orange: 16 points
- Washington Huskies: 15 points
- Navy Midshipmen: 14 points
- Arkansas Razorbacks: 14 points
- Duke Blue Devils: 12 points
- Colorado Buffaloes: 12 points
- Minnesota Golden Gophers: 11 points
- UNLV Rebels: 8 points
- Florida State Seminoles: 8 points
- Kansas Jayhawks: 6 points
- Vanderbilt Commodores: 3 points
- Buffalo Bulls: 1 point
Now that we know all that, here is what a projected College Football Playoff format could look like.
- Texas Longhorns (Projected SEC champion)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (Projected Big Ten champion)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
- Georgia Bulldogs (Projected SEC runner-up)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Projected national indepdent at-large)
- Clemson Tigers (Projected ACC champion)
- Oregon Ducks (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (Projected SEC at-large)
- LSU Tigers (Projected SEC at-large)
- Miami Hurricanes (Projected ACC runner-up)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (Projected Big 12 champion)
- Boise State Broncos (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five winner)
For even more context, these would be the first four teams out of the College Football Playoff field.
- 13. Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten)
- 14. South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC)
- 15. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten)
- 16. Ole Miss Rebels (SEC)
If this were the College Football Playoff field, here is how I would expect for it to ultimately shake out.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket based on the first Coaches Poll
So here is who would be getting first-round byes, as well as who will be playing who in the first round.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket first round
- No. 1: Texas Longhorns (BYE)
- No. 2: Ohio State Buckeyes (BYE)
- No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (BYE)
- No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs (BYE)
- No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 6 Clemson Tigers
- No. 10 Miami Hurricanes at No. 7 Oregon Ducks
- No. 9 LSU Tigers at No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide
With Texas, Ohio State, Penn State and Georgia on byes, our projected first-round matchups based entirely off the preseason Coaches Poll offers great intrigue. We have two matchups from the regular season in Boise State facing off with Notre Dame once again, as well as a major SEC rivalry between LSU and Alabama. I think there would be upsets here, as not all four home teams are going to win...
Notre Dame holds steady to advance to the quarterfinals over Boise State. While I think Arizona State will keep it close, Clemson being at home in Death Valley gives the Tigers the leg up to advance. I have Carson Beck playing the game of his life to shock Oregon in Autzen. As for LSU at Alabama, give me the Bayou Bengals moving on because they get better quarterback play out of Garrett Nussmeier.
Now let's move our collective attention to the national quarterfinals all being played at neutral sites.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national quarterfinals
These would be the four quarterfinal matchups of note in this projected College Football Playoff field.
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 9 LSU Tigers
- Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
- Orange Bowl: No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 6 Clemson Tigers
- Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
We have eight big brands duking it out for the right to advance to the national semifinals. No, the higher-seeded teams are not going to all lose like the did last year, but one of them will... I have Texas being too much offensively for SEC foe LSU to handle in the Cotton Bowl. I also have the high-octane offense of the Ohio State Buckeyes blowing the Miami Hurricanes so out of water in the Rose Bowl.
As far as the Orange and Sugar Bowls are concerned, these will be a bit more close. The ultimate driving machine that is James Franklin is not able to adjust to Dabo Swinney thinking on the fly. Keep in mind that Tom Allen knows Penn State's offensive personnel from his time in State College last season. I have No. 6 Clemson upsetting No. 3 Penn State to advance to the national semifinals here.
As for Georgia, the Dawgs will get revenge on Notre Dame in the same house of horrors from a season ago. Georgia is far from a perfect team, but last year's Notre Dame was a close approximation to that. If they can slow down Jeremiyah Love running the ball, Gunner Stockton and the boys will do enough offensively to reach the national semifinals with another national title bout on the horizon.
Now that we know who all is advancing out of the national quarterfinals, let's move onto to the semis!
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national semifinals
Here are the two national semifinal matchups as part of this year's College Football Playoff field.
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 6 Clemson Tigers
To help me better unpack this, let's assume three things about Texas' season en route to the No. 1 seed. For the Longhorns to get the No. 1 seed, they would have had to beat No. 2 Ohio State in The Horseshoe to start the season. I am skeptical of that, but it is possible... As for No. 4 Georgia, the Longhorns being No. 1 and Georgia being No. 4 means they split in Athens and then again in Atlanta.
In my best guess, Texas' lone loss of the season was Between the Hedges in Athens and Georgia either went undefeated or only lost to Alabama or Ole Miss in the regular season before falling by a single score to Texas in Atlanta. That is the best way I could conceivably forecast Texas being the No. 1 seed, Ohio State being the No. 2 and Georgia being the No. 4. That all makes the most sense to me.
As for who gets to play for a national championship, I like Georgia to get revenge on Texas after falling to them in the same building a few weeks prior. Over in Greater Phoenix, give me Ohio State moving on from Clemson because I have a feeling that Cade Klubnik will finally play tight in a game he simply cannot afford to. This will be his final college football game before he embarks on his NFL journey.
So it will be No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State for all the marbles down in South Beach this season...
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national championship
As stated above, this will be the matchup for the College Football Playoff National Championship.
- No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs
It will be close for a while. However, I just have a bad feeling that Georgia will enter this game a bit more banged up than Ohio State will. Kirby Smart may out-coach Ryan Day in this one, but Ohio State's players will out-execute Georgia's players in a critical spot. Having had an easier national semifinal matchup vs. Clemson will afford the Buckeyes to repeat as national champs in this scenario.
Overall, the preseason Coaches Poll does give us largely what we want. We have a few new entrants into the playoff from last year in Alabama, LSU and Miami, as well as nine returning teams in Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, Oregon, Arizona State and Boise State. While there is a fair share of chaos initially, the semifinals gives us four of the seven teams who can win it all.
Ultimately, this is a very conceivable predictive measure. I could totally see the 2025-26 college football season playing out this way. There are still only about eight teams who can win a national championship, and we all know who they are. However, seeding is still left to be decided, as well as figuring out who will be making the College Football Playoff field beyond the most magnificent seven.
This exercise also goes to show that we all seem to really like Arizona State and Boise State as well.