Ranking college football’s first-year starting QBs by their ability to lead a national title run

This blew my mind as much as it did Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman's for On3. During a recent episode of Andy & Ari, the popular college football analysts could not believe the following fact heading into this season. Of the last 20 teams to win a national championship, dating back to 2005, at least nine of the national champions were led by first-time starting quarterbacks. That is just absurd!

In a year where things are looking about as good as they can get for College Football Playoff contenders such as the Clemson Tigers and the Penn State Nittany Lions, it may not matter all that much when it comes to how many games Cade Klubnik and Drew Allar have started for their respective teams. It would not be shocking if a player like Arch Manning or Julian Sayin won it all.

What is important to understand before I dive into this is quarterbacks who have started less than half of their team's games the prior season would qualify for this stat. That would make Dante Moore of Oregon eligible for this designation, although Staples conveniently forgot The Mailman from Georgia. Needless to say, a proven quarterback who transfers in from another school does not count.

Check out this clip over on X from Staples where Wasserman's mind short-circuited in real time again.

Staples did not originally include Stetson Bennett IV and Tua Tagovailoa in his nine, by the way...

• 2021: Stetson Bennett IV (Georgia)*
• 2020: Mac Jones (Alabama)
• 2018: Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
• 2017: Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)*
• 2015: Jacob Coker (Alabama)
• 2014: J.T. Barrett/Cardale Jones (Ohio State)
• 2013: Jameis Winston (Florida State)
• 2011: A.J. McCarron (Alabama)
• 2010: Cam Newton (Auburn)
• 2009: Greg McElroy (Alabama)
• 2007: Matt Flynn (LSU)

Of the handful of first-time starting quarterbacks, here are seven who could win it all this season.

7. Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood

For the sake of argument, I am going to include true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood in this exercise. Do I think Michigan is going to seriously contend for a national championship? I do not. However, I think there is a pathway for the Wolverines into the College Football Playoff if they can win around nine or 10 games. Think of them potentially replacing the Indiana Hoosiers in the playoff field.

Underwood is a massive talent, but I am not sure that Sherrone Moore is the right head coach to lead this team. They have plenty of high-end players all over the roster, but I think the overall disdain the rest of the sport has for the program could get in their way. Furthermore, Moore will be suspended for the Wolverines' third and fourth games of the year vs. Central Michigan and on the road at Nebraska

Underwood's inclusion is banking entirely on Michigan's top-15 ranking to start and his huge upside.

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback C.J. Carr

C.J. Carr must really be something to effectively force presumptive starter Steve Angeli to transfer to Syracuse immediately after spring practice finished. He is the grandson of iconic former Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr. While I do think he will be coached up by an outstanding offensive coordinator in Mike Denbrock, I really only see Notre Dame being on the fringe of a national title bout.

For Notre Dame to win its first College Football Playoff National Championship with Carr as its starting quarterback, the Irish will need to go undefeated en route to a first-round bye. They may not get the No. 1 seed in that situation, but the less games they have to play, the better. Unlike Michigan, I have Notre Dame as a playoff lock. They have a rather high floor, but their ceiling is not quite there.

If 10 teams can win a national championship this year, I would say Notre Dame would be the eighth...

5. Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson

We will finally see what Ty Simpson's five-star potential coming out of high school was all about. Right now, he looks like he will be the Week 1 starter for the Alabama Crimson Tide over Washington transfer Austin Mack and true freshman Keelon Russell. While I think there is a finite ceiling with Simpson under center, Alabama did win a national title with Jacob Coker as its starting quarterback...

To me, as long as Simpson has offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb's trust, then I think he has a chance to have a great season for the Crimson Tide. Head coach Kalen DeBoer usually gets the best out of his quarterbacks anyway. Where I am the most concerned about Alabama's chances winning it all with Simpson is their difficult schedule, as well as their lack of playmakers beyond Ryan Williams.

I do not have Alabama as a playoff team, but that could quickly change if Simpson looks the part.

4. Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore

Dante Moore has the most experience at the college level of any of these quarterbacks. As Staples pointed out, he started five games for Chip Kelly at UCLA two years ago. Under Dan Lanning, the Oregon Ducks have been every bit plug-and-play at quarterback, regardless of who their offensive coordinator is. Moore backed up Dillon Gabriel last year, while learning Will Stein's offensive scheme.

In my estimation, it is not about a lack of talent in Moore's direction that has me dubious on Oregon winning a national title. They need to get better on defense in crucial standpoints. That falls on Lanning more than anything. While I have the Ducks as a playoff lock, they are firmly third in that regard in the Big Ten behind Ohio State and Penn State. I will say that Moore could be a catalyst here.

It is for that reason why I have Moore ranked smack dab in the middle of this starting quarterback list.

3. Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton

If I have to be totally honest with you, there are only five teams I think have a really good chance of winning a national championship. Clemson and Penn State are among them because they have loaded and experienced rosters. I will now throw my alma mater of Georgia into the mix. The only reason people are seemingly down on the Dawgs heading into this season is Gunner Stockton.

He is a Mike Bobo guy through and through, as he initially committed to play for him at South Carolina. While he is more of a runner than a thrower at this point of his career, that may be exactly what Georgia needs to get back to a national championship. His threat to carry the ball will keep opposing defenses more honest, allowing for easier throwing lanes to open up than they did with Carson Beck.

Georgia can win another national title with great defense and a running game with Stockton part of it.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin

Regardless of if it ends up being Julian Sayin, Lincoln Kienholz or Tavien St. Clair under center, the Ohio State Buckeyes have enough talent on their roster to repeat as national champions. I have done a few projected College Football Playoff fields, and the Buckeyes are the team that wins the most often for me, more so than Clemson, Georgia, Penn State or Texas. I really believe in this team again.

Sayin is the most talented of the three quarterbacks, although Kienholz may be the steadiest. Look, if former Kansas State starter Will Howard can transfer in and win a national title, then anyone of these guys at Ohio State is capable of doing it. This is because Ryan Day has the monkey off his back of winning a national title. The Buckeyes also have two elite players in Caleb Downs and Jeremiah Smith.

If there is any cause for concern for Ohio State, it would have to be attrition, roster and coaching...

1. Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning

Although they are not my pick to win the College Football Playoff, the Texas Longhorns are the No. 1 team to start the season for a reason in both polls of note. This could be the best defense Texas has had in a very long time. The offensive skill-position players will have time to grow into their roles. This includes first-year starting quarterback Arch Manning. There will be growing pains for him this year.

However, I think if he can take two-of-three on the road at Ohio State, Florida and Georgia, he may have what it takes to win a national championship in his first year as a starter. No, he is not declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft, no matter what happens this year. I will say that no Manning has ever won a national championship before, nor have they won a Heisman Trophy. Maybe Arch bucks the trend?

If he is all that and a bag of chips, then maybe Texas wins its first since Vince Young's 2005 heroics?

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