Thank you, South Florida, for making an already convoluted selection process for the Group of 5 in the College Football Playoff even more chaotic. The Bulls were positioned to lead the pack if they took care of business, yet a loss to Navy likely puts them out of contention as a three-loss team. But that’s not even the most alarming note from the Group of 5. The next important thing is: Who replaces South Florida? The answer gets complicated quick.
Yeah, James Madison, Tulane, North Texas and even San Diego State could all force the CFP selection committee to head down a dangerous path in putting in an even lesser G5 team into the field to compete for a national championship.
It’s not ideal, but the American Conference has long been the one that should control the auto-bid for the Group of 5 teams, yet in the last two years they’ve played themselves out of it. Tulane and North Texas are now the only hope for the conference to get in, but with a crowded pool, it doesn’t guarantee them a shot at a national championship.
Who replaces South Florida as the new G5 favorite to land in College Football Playoff?
I think James Madison has the best chance to get into the CFP at this point over the rest of the field. I think Tulane and North Texas make a strong argument, but truthfully the Dukes pass the eye test, which seems to carry the most weight to the CFP selection committee (even if they don’t want to admit it).
The Dukes’ only loss is to Louisville and that came by just two scores. I think realistically, with the way the season has gone, you can’t punish James Madison just because the Cardinals have now lost two straight to unranked teams. James Madison is the best G5 team left, and at the end of the day the best teams need to make it.
I think with JMU, much like if South Florida or Memphis if they'd survived the AAC gauntlet, they’re the best chance to put up a good fight in the first round. I know it’s not the most attractive team in the field, but it’s a team that not only deserves to get in but one that deserves to show why they’re the best G5 team in the country.
The CFP selection committee will have their work cut out for them as they need to figure out which G5 team should get in, but the next one should be James Madison. The way their season has gone, it’s safe to say they’re probably going to win out and win a conference championship in a down year for the Sun Belt. If the committee ranks JMU highly, it could solve all the G5 chaos.
The G5 chaos is highlighting the biggest flaw with automatic conference championship bids
While the G5 does deserve to have a spot in the field, it makes you wonder if that rule is going to change soon. I’m all for giving a smaller school a seat at the big table, but at the end of the day, you want the good matchups. With Memphis and South Florida out of contention, there aren't too many more teams out there that could put up a good fight against a P4 power that didn’t win their conference.
It’s a hard sell for a team like San Diego State to get in when they don’t have a good conference slate or non-conference schedule. Their non-conference loss is to Washington State and the Mountain West is down bad right now. I think maybe a stipulation down the road should be that you have to schedule at least one P4 team in order to get consideration.
I don’t know how well that would work, but just a thought to try to ensure that you’re getting the best quality G5 teams out there. In years where there isn’t a runaway G5 team, one thing that could bring some clarity is find ways to differentiate which G5 teams that should get in.