The Texas Longhorns saw their College Football Playoff hopes practically evaporate after their 35-10 loss to the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday. They woke up ranked No. 17 in the nation after dropping seven spots as a result.
While their 7-3 record would suggest there's no way for them to make the 12-team bracket, it's not entirely curtains for the Longhorns' season. They're still positioned to be offered one of the last at-large bids but there are some things that have to go their way.
First off, Texas has to win its final two games against Arkansas and No. 3 Texas A&M. It's the latter matchup that will matter the most. A massive upset would vastly enhance its resume in the eyes of the committee and force them into a difficult decision.
There's only one reason to justify including a three-loss Texas in the CFP
A 9-3 Texas team that does not participate in the SEC championship game would have its resume stacked up against not only other conference rivals but also the runners-up from the ACC and Big 12. That could get dicey, especially if there's an upset in either championship game.
The SEC is projected to have at least four teams in the playoff so Texas will need a powerful resume to be among them. It already has two ranked wins (No. 6 Oklahoma & No. 9 Vanderbilt) and if you add No. 3 Texas A&M, that's three top ten wins.
Two of the Longhorns' three losses are to top five teams so you can consider them "good" losses. There isn't another team in college football with a resume like that sitting on the outside looking in at the moment.
What Longhorns fans should be rooting for in the final two weeks of the CFB season
There are five specific teams Texas will need to scoreboard watch over the final two weeks of the regular season: No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 10 Alabama, No. 12 Vanderbilt, No. 15 Georgia Tech and No. 16 USC. You could even add No. 11 BYU and No. 13 Utah to that list but the Big 12 is looking more and more like a one-bid conference.
Longhorns fans will need to see at least three of those teams lose at least once more down the stretch to have a shot at moving up enough spots to safely be in the 12-team bracket.
The most likely of those programs to stumble down the stretch would be Vanderbilt (who faces No. 20 Tennessee on Nov. 29), USC (who faces No. 6 Oregon on Nov. 22) and Georgia Tech (who faces both Pittsburgh and No. 4 Georgia to close out the year). All would then have three losses and Texas' resume includes more quality ranked wins than they do.
When it comes to the conference championship races, Texas needs certain outcomes as well. For example, if Georgia Tech makes it to the ACC championship game (which could still include a loss to Georgia) then the Longhorns need the Yellow Jackets to lose there too. It doesn't matter who wins the Big 12 except for hoping the committee doesn't decide to reward the runner up with a berth. At this point, that would be a two-loss program between BYU and Texas Tech.
Sitting at fifth in the SEC at the moment keeps Texas well within the conversation for CFP inclusion. There's a real chance even more than five are included in the bracket considering Oklahoma is in sixth and ranked higher than the Longhorns.
Once the CFP selection committee releases its all-important rankings this week, we'll all have a better picture of how much it favors Texas as an option for one of the final at-large bids. If the Longhorns sit any higher than No. 17, that should be all the confirmation needed to prove the committee is keeping the door open.