Miami made the ACC's case for College Football Playoff representation after beating the No. 3 team in the SEC on the road and the No. 2 team in the Big Ten to advance to the semifinals. Unfortunately for the Big 12, Texas Tech made a case in the opposite direction after losing to Oregon in a CFP quarterfinal shutout.
The Ducks lifted the Orange Bowl trophy after humbling Tech, 23-0. The Red Raiders couldn't get their offense going. Worse still, quarterback Behren Morton turned the ball over three times and running back Cameron Dickey fumbled as well.
Given the trouble teams coming off byes have faced in the first two years of the 12-team playoff, we don't want to draw too many firm conclusions from one outcome. Having said that, this particular outcome hurts the legitimacy of the Big 12.
Right about now, I'm wondering if the Big 12 is capable of producing a true playoff contender. And I suspect I'm not the only one.
The Big 12's College Football Playoff leverage took a hit
The Red Raiders were far and away the best team in the Big 12 this year. They shelled out enormous resources to load up their roster and rolled through the competition in front of them. But we all just saw what Oregon did to them. Their defense was as advertised, but even they couldn't hold the Ducks (who would have scored more if they had taken the points instead of going for fourth downs in field goal range). It was not a competitive game.
The ACC and Big 12 have something frustrating in common. They're not the Big Ten or SEC, the major power players in college football right now. Those conferences will argue for four autobids to the CFP, and get them. The ACC and Big 12 will have to be content with scraps.
At the same time, the difference between the ACC and Big 12 is stark. There are powerhouse programs in the former conference, even if Florida State and Clemson are not at their best at the moment. Those two and Miami have the legacy and resources to reach the elite tier. To make it through the conference, you have to go through rosters with Top 15 talent, especially if you're Miami and you schedule Notre Dame to start the season. The ACC made the statement they needed to with CFP results.
The Big 12 doesn't have the same argument, in part because it can't present the same challenge to its members. Texas Tech's closest competition in the Big 12 was Utah and BYU. Both of those programs are exceptional. They're perennially well-coached and do a great job of developing talent. However, they win games with maturity and grit. Neither boasts elite-tier talent. The Utes are 44th in 247Sports team talent. The Cougars are 70th. Texas Tech is the cream of the conference at 29th.
That's not to say the Big 12 is a bad conference. It's not. But it's very middle heavy. It's a bunch of solid teams. True national contenders are few and far between. The conference lacks a blue blood, or anything close to that status. There are a total of 10 national championships claimed by teams in the conference — and that's being generous by talking claims instead of consensus titles (UCF in 2017 anyone?). Michigan, USC and Ohio State in the Big Ten have three times as many alone. Texas and Oklahoma, who left for the SEC, have 11 between them.
Non-blue bloods can be great and competitive, don't get me wrong (see Indiana). There's just a recruiting gap between the best teams in the Big 12 and the best in the Big Ten, SEC or even ACC. Because of that, it's hard for any team in the Big 12 to become battle tested against elite rosters. The game moves at a different speed when you go up against those kinds of teams. If you're not prepared for it, you risk being thrown off balance with little hope of settling in before you're already in a hole. Texas Tech got away with a mediocre offense in the Big 12 because their defense picked up the slack. To truly compete in the playoff, you have to be solid in all aspects of the game. They couldn't get away with it against a true contender.
Tech's investment could turn them into a next Oregon — a new money powerhouse. But the Red Raiders can't turn the Big 12 into a conference that's feared on their own.