With the College Football Playoff expanding from four teams to 12, and almost certainly to 16 in 2026, dropping a game or two during the regular season is no longer the worst thing in the world. However, stumbling in the wrong game could still have disastrous consequences. What if a team's third loss is to a bad team? What if a team suffers two with a less-than-stellar strength of schedule?
The proverbial trap game is always out there, hiding in the tall grass, waiting to pounce and strike your favorite team's season. For some teams, they are simply too talented and too deep to suffer a fatal wound from such a loss. However, most teams competing at the FBS level are not that lucky. More chances to get in has created even more excitement surrounding the best sport around.
What I am about to do is highlight the biggest trap game on the schedule for the 12 betting favorites to make the playoff this year. For the sake of simplicity and time, I used anyone with +200 odds of making the College Football Playoff or better from FanDuel Sportsbook as the line of demarcation. It should be noted that there are 39 teams with +1000 odds or better of getting in which I may address at a later date.
Let's start with these 12 heavy-hitters and then go from there. Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-154)
Oct. 11: at Missouri Tigers
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the first of eight teams here that have a better chance of making the College Football Playoff than not at -154 odds. That may be a little steep for me, as I do not think they are the third most likely team to make the playoff out of the SEC beyond Texas and Georgia. That being said, I am good with them being a strong candidate to make it this year after just missing out in 2024.
As far as their trap game is concerned, I decided to go with the Oct. 11 road date at Missouri. It is right in the heart of the Crimson Tide's conference slate. It comes two weeks after playing at Georgia and one after hosting Vanderbilt. Alabama survived at home over UGA a year ago, but was stunned vs. Vandy. After the Mizzou game comes an onslaught of tough SEC games, including Tennessee to start.
I do not think Alabama will overlook the Vols in the Third Saturday in October, nor their road game at South Carolina to close out the month. Home vs. LSU and Oklahoma to start November off are not trap games. Missouri may not be a playoff team, but the Tigers are too talented to completely overlook. With how challenging Alabama's schedule may be, they stand a chance to slip up like a season ago.
After all, this is a team that fell to Vanderbilt early in the season before getting pummeled by Oklahoma later.
Boise State Broncos (+198)
Sept. 27: vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Boise State is the overwhelming favorite to win the Mountain West and earn the Group of Five spot again. The Broncos come in at +198 odds, which is just off the pace of Miami but right ahead of Michigan, who is just outside the +200 threshold. Because Boise State competes at the G5 level, they will be favored in all of their games, outside of their tough road date at Notre Dame on Oct. 4.
That game is significant because if Boise State wins it, the Broncos almost certainly will be making the playoff, while it might remove Notre Dame from the equation to some degree. As far as the Broncos' trap game is concerned, I went with the week before the much-anticipated showdown with the Irish. Boise State hosting Sun Belt menace Appalachian State is the one keeping me up at night.
The Mountaineers may have a new head coach and quarterback, but this is a program built on the foundation of slaying giants. The fact that App State does not play in the Mountain West leads me to believe that Spencer Danielson's lack of head-coaching experience could get exposed. He and his staff will really have to game plan to avoid this non-conference loss with a feisty Group of Five foe.
I have Boise State winning all of its games this season outside of the Notre Dame date to finish 11-1.
Clemson Tigers (-140)
Nov. 1: vs. Duke Blue Devils
At -140 odds, the Clemson Tigers are the presumptive favorite to win the ACC yet again and make it back to the College Football Playoff. At this time, I have the Tigers losing to Penn State in the national championship game, but so much will inevitably change between now and then. While I do recognize a handful of tough games on the schedule, I would be real concerned about losing at home to Duke.
Outside of Miami, Clemson draws pretty much every other serious playoff contender out of the ACC. This would include at Georgia Tech, home vs. SMU and at Louisville. The Tigers also host LSU in The Battle for Death Valley in Week 1 and then play at South Carolina in the Palmetto Bowl in the non-conference. For me, I keep going back to the Duke game, based on where it comes on their schedule.
Yes, it may come after a bye, but I expect the ACC title bout rematch between Clemson and SMU to be high-octane. Clemson may be riding high, and possibly still undefeated at this point. Thinking they can cake walk over reeling rival Florida State a week later befor the Louisville game is not a great idea. To me, Duke has the head coach and quarterback combination with Tulane transfer Darian Mensah to potentially stifle Clemson on Nov. 1.
Georgia Bulldogs (-260)
Sept. 13: at Tennessee Volunteers
At -260 odds to make the College Football Playoff, you could argue that the Georgia Bulldogs are among the safest bets to make the field. (Dating back to 2017, the Dawgs have played in eight consecutive New Year's Six bowls, so keep that in mind.) This may be my alma mater and my favorite team, but I also recognize the potential challenges and pitfalls that could be had for them this season.
The game that I ended up settling on as the potential trap game for Georgia is on the road at the Tennessee Volunteers on Sept. 13. It is two weeks before Alabama comes to town. While Georgia has owned the Vols for about a decade now, Josh Heupel is still an excellent coach. One of the reasons why this is the trap game of note is how most of Georgia's other tough games will be in Athens.
After playing Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas all on the road in 2024, the Crimson Tide, Rebels and Longhorns will all make their way to The Classic City in 2025. Yes, the Cocktail Party vs. arch rival Florida will be hard, as may be the case with the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry at Auburn. Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate with Georgia Tech might be in Atlanta, but the Dawgs have not lost to the Jackets there in decades.
If Georgia were to beat Tennessee decisively in Neyland, the Dawgs have a shot to go 12-0 this fall.
LSU Tigers (+138)
Sept. 18: at Vanderbilt Commodores
With +138 odds of making the playoff, the LSU Tigers are very much a borderline candidate heading into this season. They may have a Heisman Trophy favorite at quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, but the Tigers need to take care of business with a tough schedule. As far as a trap game is concerned, I went with at Vanderbilt on Sept. 18. The game is sandwiched between many bigger ones in SEC play.
With the Magnolia Bowl at Ole Miss this year, coupled with a tough home date vs. South Carolina the week after, I could totally see LSU potentially slipping up in Nashville before hosting rival Texas A&M and then going to Alabama in the early part of November. I look at LSU's schedule as one where 10-2 is the ceiling, maybe even 11-1 if they were to win the Battle for Death Valley at Clemson in Week 1.
There are three things working in Vanderbilt's favor here for the potential upset bid, outside of where it comes on LSU's schedule. It could be a sleepy road game for LSU. For as talented as Nussmeier is, he does tend to pull back in big moments, or he has up to his point of his college football career. The last one is my biggest concern: I do not trust Blake Baker's defense, but I do love the Live Dog, Diego Pavia.
If LSU were to somehow lose to Vanderbilt in Nashville, it may cost the Tigers their shot at the playoff.
Miami Hurricanes (+172)
Oct. 4: at Florida State Seminoles
I may be higher on the Miami Hurricanes making the playoff than most people. I have a feeling the ACC stands a great chance of getting two teams in. Clemson feels like a lock, but the other bid may go to either Miami or to SMU again. At +172 to make the playoff, Miami is in the same boat as LSU in that the Canes are very borderline. And Mario Cristobal seems like a lock to lose a trap game or two. It is what he does.
The game that I ended up picking for the Hurricanes to stumble in will be at the in-state rival Florida State Seminoles on Oct. 4. This comes two weeks after Miami hosts their other big in-state rival in Florida. That game could go either way; I think the Gators may win that one. If they do not, then I think there is a chance Miami overlooks Florida State down in Tallahassee two weeks later on Oct. 4.
They will have another bye of sorts before hosting fellow ACC contender Louisville on Oct. 17. Given how strong the Cardinals are offensively, they will not get overlooked. For similar reasons, I do not see Miami overlooking a trip to SMU and a home date with Syracuse. Pitt may Pitt at the end of the season, but Florida State is not going to be a 2-10 team again this year, y'all.
The consequences of Miami losing at Florida State may be disastrous for the Hurricanes this season.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-150)
Sept. 27: at Arkansas Razorbacks
Despite losing an unthinkable game very early on last season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish were an impressive bunch that made it all the way to the national title game. While they did come up short vs. the Ohio State Buckeyes, I would argue that Notre Dame is almost a lock to make the College Football Playoff again this year. Their -150 odds of making it back are a direction reflection of that notion.
When I was looking for a potential trap game for them, I settled on the Sept. 27 road date at Arkansas. This will come after two big games to start the year at Miami and home vs. Texas A&M, as well as a breezy one at home vs. putrid Purdue. My thought is Notre Dame could potentially take its foot off the gas a bit heading into Arkansas, especially with a massive home game the next week vs. Boise State.
I look at Notre Dame's schedule for this season and firmly believe that if the Irish were to go something like 10-2 or better, they will be back in the playoff. Not to say that a road loss to Arkansas would do them in, as they did lose to Northern Illinois at home a year ago, but that would not be one of the games I would expect for the Golden Domers to lose this season. They have to be ready for it.
With jobs on the line at Arkansas, I would not be stunned if Sam Pittman's team beat Notre Dame.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-310)
Sept. 27: at Washington Huskies
Although the Ohio State Buckeyes are among the favorites to make it back into the College Football Playoff, as reflected by their -310 odds of doing so, I have a hard time seeing them going undefeated with their tough schedule. While I think they will get up for huge home games this fall vs. Texas and Penn State, as well as the road date at Michigan, their trap game comes at the start of Big Ten play.
Yes, I think there is a halfway decent chance that Ohio State could stumble in Seattle vs. the Washington Huskies. Jedd Fisch is an excellent head coach. It has been a minute since U-Dub lost at Husky Stadium. The fact that Huskies QB Demond Williams Jr. has more starting experience over anyone on the Ohio State roster should matter. Washington played for a national championship only two years ago.
We have to remember that cross-country travel has been an interesting wrinkle in the new Big Ten. While the upper crust of the conference seems to do just fine no matter where they play, home-field advantage is a real thing. Washington came to the Big Ten to help make the top half of the conference even more formidable in football. I think we see that come to fruition during this season.
Ohio State may have a 12-0 ceiling, but they could have a 10-2 floor with a road loss at Washington.
Ole Miss Rebels (+142)
Sept. 20: vs. Tulane Green Wave
While I am skeptical of the Ole Miss Rebels making the playoff this year, they do have +142 odds of making it in. Last year was supposed to be the year where it happened, but they went 9-3. There is a chance Austin Simmons could be even better than what Jaxson Dart was in Oxford, and I think we are overstating the demise of the program. Lane Kiffin can coach, and the schedule is favorable.
When I was looking for a trap game for Ole Miss, I stumbled upon an intriguing one in the non-conference. I settled on their Sept. 20 home date vs. the Tulane Green Wave. It is a week after the Nutt Bowl vs. Arkansas, and a week before the Magnolia Bowl vs. LSU. Tulane is one of a handful of teams I expect will be in contention to win the Group of Five, so a bad loss here could be devastating.
The back half of Ole Miss' schedule is more challenging than the front. While I think the entire college football world would be shocked if they ran the gauntlet, we have seen Kiffin-led teams play with their food at times and lose to inferior competition. Tulane is far better than Kentucky was last year, and I think they could suffer a similar fate.
Not to say the winner of that game will make the playoff, but a loss could keep the losing team out.
Oregon Ducks (-265)
Oct. 18: at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Oregon may be an overwhelming favorite to make the College Football Playoff at -265 odds, but this team is not going undefeated. I would also argue that it is more likely the Ducks go 10-2 than they do 12-0. They may have been able to run the gauntlet during their first season in the Big Ten, but they are not going to catch anyone off-guard this season. Picking a trap game was hard, but I think I found one.
For whatever reason, the road date at the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Oct. 18 seems to do it for me. It comes after three straight high-stakes games for the Ducks: They host arch rival Oregon State in the Strife Aquatic before going on the road to Penn State and then hosting Indiana. I believe they take two of three, with the most likely loss coming to Penn State in Happy Valley. Will they let down after?
When it comes to Rutgers, we know that the floor is quite high for the Scarlet Knights under Greg Schiano's watch. They will play great defense, but it remains to be seen if they can move the needle offensively. While I do think Oregon comes out on top in this one, a loss in Piscataway would put a ton of pressure on the Ducks to beat Iowa in Kinnick before having to face its massive rival Washington over in Seattle.
I think Oregon's two losses will be at Penn State and at Washington, but at Rutgers could be difficult.
Penn State Nittany Lions (-235)
Oct. 18: at Iowa Hawkeyes
At this time, Penn State is my favorite to win the College Football Playoff. The Nittany Lions come in at -235 odds to make the playoff. Under James Franklin, they have become the ultimate driving academy: Keep your hands at 10 and 2 so you can go 10-2! This is a team that does not lose as a heavy favorite, but also struggles when going up against a top-five team. Something has to give here.
Since Penn State is not built to succumb to the proverbial trap game, I had to look a bit beyond surface level. I am going on feel here. Assuming they beat Oregon and Indiana at home, but lose in The Horseshoe to Ohio State, we are looking at an 11-1 team getting back to Indianapolis. The other road loss I could see happening would be at Iowa two weeks before the big Ohio State showdown.
Penn State and Iowa always play weird games whenever they go up against each other. Although I would argue that Penn State has far more talent offensively, what if South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski is the better quarterback over Drew Allar? I am not ruling that out just yet. Again, Penn State is not built to lose trap games, but Iowa is the one team I think could potentially upset them.
Iowa is in a group of about five teams in the Big Ten I think may vie for the league's fourth playoff spot.
Texas Longhorns (-300)
Oct. 4: at Florida Gators
For all intents and purposes, the Texas Longhorns are a lock to make the College Football Playoff. At -300 odds to make it back in for the third year in a row, they should be. While they may be some prognosticators' pick to win the national championship this year, we need to see what Arch Manning can do first in his first year as the starter. The Longhorns have a slew of tough road games this year.
At this time, I think Texas will fall at Ohio State in The Horseshoe in Week 1, as well as stumble vs. Georgia between the hedges on Nov. 15. If those are their only two losses, they will make the playoff comfortably. However, they do have another tough road game they cannot overlook. I am talking about their Oct. 4 road date at Florida. This comes a week before Red River vs. an Oklahoma team who just might be good this season.
Having an extra week off to prepare for the Gators could be to their advantage. That being said, a loss to either Florida or Oklahoma before that Georgia date could put an absurd amount of pressure on this team. The Longhorns still have to finish the season at home vs. traditional rivals Arkansas and Texas A&M, both of which will be at DKR. But Texas is only making the playoff if it can win on the road.
I see Texas beating Florida ahead of Red River, but they likely need to win both to make the playoff.