The official 12-team field for the 2025 College Football Playoff has been announced. As expected, there is significant controversy around the exact order — and especially over the teams left out. Notre Dame won 10 straight and finished third in FPI, but missed out due to a head-to-head loss to Miami in their season opener. Duke won the ACC championship in improbable fashion, but couldn't overcome a five-loss record. BYU finished 11-2 in the Big 12, but two losses to Texas Tech (one in the conference title game) sunk their cause, despite a top-10 strength of record.
If the College Football Playoff were to be expanded to 16 teams, some of these controversies would dissipate. There'd still be debate over the 17th, 18th and 19th-place teams, of course, but at a certain point, these three- and four-loss teams start to have less ground to stand on.
How would the 16-team CFP work?
The Big Ten's proposal, albeit far from the guaranteed product, gives us a solid baseline: four automatic qualifiers from the SEC and Big Ten, two automatic qualifiers from the ACC and Big 12, one automatic qualifier from the Group of Five, and three at-large teams.
The top-two seeds would receive a two-round buy. The first round would essentially become a play-in tournament, with a No. 16 vs. No. 13 matchup and a No. 15 vs. No. 14 matchup. The winners would move on to the second round. Six teams would move on from the second round, joining the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds in the third round. The fourth and penultimate round whittles the field down to four. Then, the fifth and final round, is the championship game.
Full 16-Team CFP Playoff Bracket
The autobid process means Duke, as ACC champs, cracks the final field. It also means only one Group of Five school — No. 20 Tulane — is guaranteed a spot, which is a bummer for No. 24 James Madison. Still, this 16-team field does feel like it properly rewards every manner of regular season achiever, from the unexpected conference champ (Duke) to the independent team without a conferece title game to boost their résumé (Notre Dame).
16-Team College Football Playoff Field |
|---|
1. Indiana |
2. Ohio State |
3. Georgia |
4. Texas Tech |
5. Oregon |
6. Ole Miss |
7. Texas A&M |
8. Oklahoma |
9. Alabama |
10. Miami |
11. Notre Dame |
12. BYU |
13. Vanderbilt |
14. USC |
15. Tulane |
16. Duke |
First Round 16-Team CFP Matchups
Home Opponent | Away Opponent |
|---|---|
No. 13 Vanderbilt | No. 16 Duke |
No. 14 USC | No. 15 Tulane |
16. Duke (ACC Champ) vs. 13. Vanderbilt (At-Large)
Some scheduling quirks, plus a late-season meltdown from Georgia Tech, left five-loss Duke (6-2 in conference) in the ACC championship game. The Blue Devils won an OT thriller over Virginia, but was ultimately left out of the 12-team field in favor of two higher-ranked Group of Five champs. If the ACC gets two autobids, Duke would be more richly rewarded for their improbable title run.
Vanderbilt benefits from the assumed superiority and high strength of record that blesses every competitive SEC team. The Commodores only lost twice — to ranked Alabama and Texas — and notched wins over Tennessee, Missouri and LSU. Diego Pavia, a Heisman frontrunner, gets his moment on college football's grandest stage.
15. Tulane (AAC Champ) vs. 14. USC (Big Ten A.Q.)
Tulane finished the season with two losses, but won the AAC championship over North Texas and edged out James Madison as the highest-ranked Group of Five team. That secures an autobid for head coach Jon Sumrall before he departs this offseason for a cushy gig at Florida. The Green Wave is a sparky bunch — and a potential sleeper.
USC finished with three losses and never really had a chance in a 12-team field, but a head-to-head win over Michigan places the Trojans fourth in the Big Ten hierarchy. And, in this scenario, the Big Ten gets four autobids. USC ranks 11th in ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) and has the under-hood indicators to surprise folks in a postseason setting.
Second Round 16-Team CFP Matchups
Home Opponent | Away Opponent |
|---|---|
No. 8 Oklahoma | No. 9 Alabama |
No. 5 Oregon | No. 12 BYU |
No. 4 Texas Tech | No. 15 Tulane/No. 14 USC winner |
No. 7 Texas A&M | No. 10 Miami |
No. 6 Ole Miss | No. 11 Notre Dame |
No. 3 Georgia | No. 16 Duke/No. 13 Vanderbilt winner |
9. Alabama (At-Large) vs. 8. Oklahoma (SEC A.Q.)
Alabama — sixth in strength of schedule, 14th in strength of record, seventh in FPI — pretty clearly deserved a spot after only suffering two competitive losses in the regular season. The Crimson Tide laid an egg in the SEC Championship Game, and their rushing attack is an atypical point of weakness, but Ty Simpson is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and Alabama is a no-brainer for an at-large spot.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, is the fourth-highest ranked SEC squad, and thus one of the automatic qualifiers. (If we want to split hairs, Bama might be an A.Q. based on their making it to the SEC title game, the specifics of each league's qualification process is to be determined.) The Sooners beat Alabama head-to-head, and also picked up noteworthy wins over Tennessee and Michigan.
12. BYU (Big 12 A.Q.) vs. No. 5 Oregon (Big Ten A.Q.)
BYU finishes second in the Big 12 with their championship loss to Texas Tech, but still secures an autobid — and, ironically, a top-12 seed — in this setup. It feels right, as the Cougars are undoubtedly more qualified than the two Group of Five teams seeded ahead of them in "real life." The Cougars finished ninth in strength of record and only lost once before the conference title game.
Oregon as the top non-champ autobid is a given. The Big Ten was a buzzsaw this season, but the Ducks only lost once — 30-20 to No. 1 Indiana. Ranked wins over Penn State, Iowa and USC left Dan Lanning's squad with the fourth-best strength of record in college football. Oregon is also No. 4 in FPI. Now, the Ducks attempt to exorcise past CFP demons.
No. 15 Tulane/No. 14 USC winner vs. 4. Texas Tech (Big 12 Champ)
Texas Tech won the Big 12 Championship over BYU and secured their spot as a one-loss top-four seed. The Red Raiders beat the Cougars twice in the end and added another ranked win over Utah. Grading highly in strength of record (No. 7) and FPI (No. 5), Texas Tech put all doubt to rest on Saturday. Their reward? A winnable showdown against the victor of Tulane and USC.
No. 10 Miami (ACC A.Q.) vs. 7. Texas A&M (SEC A.Q.)
Texas A&M suffered a disappointing season finale loss to Texas, which bumped the Aggies out of the SEC Championship Game. Even so, A&M finished with a single loss in the SEC and college football's No. 3 strength of record. The committee ultimately favored Ole Miss, but A&M's résumé is as strong as any autobid in this hypothetical bracket.
Meanwhile, Miami separated itself as the best team in the ACC by season's end, with Carson Beck thriving under center and Mario Cristobal's squad producing its standard high-octane offensive numbers. Miami a couple close losses to Louisville and Notre Dame, the latter of which impacts the exact order of these rankings, but the Hurricanes easily secure the ACC autobid, despite not appearing in the championship game. If, in theory, Virginia was to be granted an autobid as the technical ACC runner-up, Miami would still secures an at-large bid in this 16-team format, which is the beauty of an expanded field.
No. 11 Notre Dame (At-Large) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (SEC A.Q.)
This is probably the most keenly that Notre Dame has felt the consequences of being an independent, non-conference school. A head-to-head loss to Miami in week one ultimately doomed the Fighting Irish in the final 12-team standings, despite ranking No. 3 in FPI. The Fighting Irish opened the season with back-to-back losses to Miami and Texas A&M, both top-10 teams in the end. Since then, Notre Dame has won 10 straight — including against ranked opponents, such as Pittsburgh and USC. The 16-team concept is practically designed to give teams like Notre Dame a bit more margin for error.
Ole Miss finishes No. 6 and secures an SEC autobid despite the departure of Lane Kiffin to LSU. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. will return to Ole Miss for the postseason run alongside new head coach Pete Golding. That means the Rebels have both their playcallers and some valuable continuity in the locker room, despite Kiffin's disruptive exit. Don't count out Ole Miss — No. 6 in strength of record and No. 12 in FPI.
No. 16 Duke/No. 13 Vanderbilt winner vs. No. 3 Georgia (SEC Champ)
Georgia weathered the storm of an early-season hiccup against Alabama and ultimately beat the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game. The Dawgs needed a bit of luck to reach the title game, but A&M's loss to Texas cleared the path and Kirby Smart's squad reasserted itself as the SEC's primary powerhouse. No. 2 in strength of record and No. 6 in FIP, there's a strong case for UGA over Ohio State in the final rankings, but the committee favored the Buckeyes and their undefeated regular season record in the end. Georgia gets either Vandy or Duke, both beatable opponents.
Two-Round Buys in 16-Team CFP Bracket
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten A.Q.)
Ohio State went undefeated through the regular season before a disappointing 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game. Ryan Day's squad remains more than capable of running the table and capturing back-to-back titles. The Buckeyes finished No. 5 in strength of record and No. 2 in FPI, but were (rightfully) not penalized for participating in their conference championship game — especially since their opponent was also an undefeated Big Ten squad.
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten Champ)
A rousing and unexpected victory over Ohio State cemented Indiana as the undisputed No. 1 seed — top in both strength of record and FPI, with wins over Ohio State, Oregon and Illinois. Fernando Mendoza probably wins the Heisman at this point. The Hoosiers have exceeded even the most optimistic of preseason expectations. Is Indiana able to go the distance after their 13-0 campaign? Time will tell, but there's no question as to who deserves the top seed and, hopefully, the easiest path.