We're now nearly halfway through the 2025 college football regular season. Conference title races are beginning to take shape, and in just under four weeks, the College Football Playoff selection committee will release its first rankings of the year — kicking off a mad dash to be one of the 12 teams in the field with a shot to win a national title.
If we've learned anything about the Playoff over the last few years, it's that this new format creates far more leeway and margin for error. Drop a couple of games? No problem. Lose in heartbreaking fashion to your bitter rival on the final week of the season? Shake it off. This is far closer to an NFL-style system, where as long as you're good enough, you've got a chance.
So, with that in mind, let's provide a some optimism for teams who maybe haven't gotten off to quite the start they were hoping for this year. Which team not currently ranked in the AP top 25 has the cleanest path to a Playoff spot?
Honorable mentions
Before we dive in, a quick tip of the cap to some teams who shouldn't be entirely ignored but who still face a bit too uphill a battle for consideration here.
Duke gets both Georgia Tech and Virginia at home, and the road trip to Clemson doesn't seem all that scary anymore, but even if they run the table to finish 10-2 they still would need to upset Miami in the ACC title game to feel good about their chances. Washington has a real shot to get to 10-2 if they can go 2-1 against Michigan (in Ann Arbor), Illinois and Oregon (both in Seattle), but that's easier said than done. Auburn has just one tough road trip remaining, but that road trip is the Iron Bowl, and home games against Vandy and Missouri are hardly cake walks — especially with essentially zero margin for error. And then, of course, there's Texas, which would still be a viable Playoff contender ... if I had any faith in this team's ability to go to Georgia in November and win.
The Big Ten's middle class
The upper crust of the conference, your Ohio States and Oregons and Indianas (yes, we said Indianas), are locked in. Unlike the SEC, however, the second tier still has some work to do to try and work their way into the field.
USC
The Trojans suffered an extremely USC loss (derogatory) to Illinois last weekend, but discount Lincoln Riley's team at your own peril. That was their first loss of the year, after all, meaning they likely still have one more loss left to play with in order to earn serious at-large consideration. And if they can take care of business at home against Michigan on Saturday, things set up pretty well for a Playoff run.
Yes, there are still road trips to Notre Dame and Oregon remaining. If the Trojans find a way to split those two, though, 10-2 is very much on the table, because the only other games of note are at Nebraska and at home against Iowa. Double-digit wins with Michigan and Notre Dame on the resume feels like it should be good enough, and this Jayden Maiava-led offense can hang with just about anyone.
Nebraska
This is less an endorsement of the Huskers as a team — I need fewer sacks and more vertical shots from Dylan Raiola and a bit more resistance from this defensive front — than it is an endorsement of their remaining schedule. Trips to Maryland and Minnesota have some trap potential, but beyond that, the only remaining speed bumps should be at home against USC on Nov. 1 and then at Penn State to end the regular season.
Again, Nebraska has not earned the benefit of the doubt here, and I'm skeptical that they can actually take care of business. But if they win the games they should and split against the Trojans and Nittany Lions, they'll wind up at 10-2 and in the conversation almost by default.
The Big 12 Wheel of Destiny
It's fitting that the most wide-open conference in the country would be well-represented on this list, because no one does "pretty good, but still a little suspect" quite like the Big 12.
Utah
I remain a believer in the Utes. The loss to Texas Tech came with QB Devon Dampier hobbled, and I think that said more about how good the Red Raiders are than anything else. This is a funky, dynamic offense when Dampier is right (last week's bye should help with that) and if the next two weeks provide a chance for Kyle Whittingham's team to prove they're for real in both the conference and Playoff races.
Utah gets Arizona State at home on Saturday before traveling to Provo for the Holy War against BYU next weekend. Win at least one of those, and the rest of the schedule is awfully friendly, with three home games around road trips to Baylor and Kansas. This team feels like a pretty strong bet to get to at least 10-2, provided that this defense is better than what we saw in their lone loss to date.
Cincinnati
Far be it from me to take Scott Satterfield seriously, but ... I think Cincinnati might be good? Their win over Iowa State last weekend was more convincing than the 38-30 scoreline would suggest, and Brendan Sorsby is piloting one of the most explosive offenses in the country right now.
Even better, there's just one currently ranked team remaining on the schedule, and they get BYU at home in late November. There's also a trip to Utah, which is always perilous, but Cincy only needs to win one of those two games to have a great chance at getting to 10-2. (The only other road trips on the schedule are at Oklahoma State, which hardly counts, and at TCU.) If Sorsby and Co. keep firing on all cylinders, it's more than doable.
TCU
Speaking of the Horned Frogs: A tricky test awaits in a trip to Kansas State this weekend, but if Sonny. Dykes' team can emerge victorious there, it's all in front of them down the home stretch. They get Iowa State and Cincinnati at home and have to go to BYU, all of which are losable for a team that's as reliant on the right arm of QB Josh Hoover as TCU is. Still, it's a pretty great right arm, and all the Frogs need is enough defensively to survive each week.
Granted, that's a pretty perilous way to live. But Hoover and Eric McAlister are more than capable, and if they can split their two remaining ranked games, they could absolutely get to 10-2.
The Group of Six battle royale
While all the above teams are jostling to wind up on the right side of the at-large bubble, there are several Group of Six teams that have their sights set on the automatic bid awarded to the highest-ranked non-P4 conference champ. Ranked teams like South Florida and Memphis are in the driver's seat at the moment, but there's still a lot of football left to play.
North Texas
At this point, it feels like whoever emerges from the AAC is likely to end the season as the highest-ranked G6 team; the conference is clearly a cut above the rest this year, and even if they all cannibalize each other a bit, a two-loss American champ could still (and probably should still) be placed ahead of a one-loss champ from a lesser league.
All of which opens the door for a team like North Texas, which has quietly been putting together quite the season so far. Long known for explosive offensive and ... equally explosive defense under Eric Morris, the latter unit is finally holding up its end of the bargain a bit, and the result has been a 5-0 start that includes wins over Washington State and at Army. It's all in front of the Mean Green, and this weekend has the chance to make or break their Playoff dream.
If UNT is able to upset South Florida at home on Friday night, they'll suddenly become the favorites to win the AAC — they dodge Memphis, and the rest of their schedule features home dates against UTSA, Navy and Temple and road games against Charlotte, UAB and Rice. That's hardly a murderer's row, and a 12-0 run is very much on the table. Granted, they'd still have to get past likely Memphis in the conference title game, but still, that's a heck of a place to be.
Old Dominion
ODU will likely need a little bit of help from the American, as they're currently behind Memphis (6-0) and USF (4-1, but with wins over Boise State and Florida) in the Playoff pecking order. But if you haven't been paying attention so far, this team is good.
They already blasted Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, and their lone loss so far this season was a competitive 27-14 game at Indiana in Week 1 (in which the Monarchs actually outdid the Hoosiers in yards per play). A trip to James Madison in two weeks is the stiffest test remaining; pass that, and there isn't much standing in the way of an 11-1 finish and a spot in the Sun Belt title game. Again, if Memphis or USF finish at one loss (or even two with a conference title), it might not be enough. But they've positioned themselves to be the best of the rest right now.