The college football regular season has concluded and the upcoming weekend will bring some juicy conference championship matchups. Among those will be multiple with massive College Football Playoff implications, but it's the teams that are not playing who will be eagerly awaiting results on Tuesday night.
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will release its Week 15 (conference championship week) rankings that act as the penultimate look at the potential 12-team bracket. Teams ranked 10-14 typically constitute those sitting on the "bubble" and are hoping for those above them to stumble and fall. However, last year's debut of the 12-team bracket demonstrated that those bubble teams are given false hope entering conference championship week, and the committee has to either backtrack or keep a team in the Top 12 that it already knows isn't going to make the field.
The CFP Selection Committee has a history of painting itself into a corner with penultimate rankings
In 2024, Boise State (No. 10), Alabama (No. 11), Miami (No. 12), Ole Miss (No. 13) and Arizona State (No. 14) were considered the bubble teams entering Week 15. The Hurricanes and Rebels were both excluded from the final field by virtue of the Sun Devils claiming the Big 12 crown (claiming the 4-seed in the old format but being ranked No. 12) and the Mountain West-champion Broncos getting the Group of Five bid. Alabama (9-3) was a controversial inclusion based on its resume alone.
Miami and Ole Miss were given unnecessary hope of making the playoff by the committee because even if ASU had lost to No. 16 Iowa State and Boise State lost the Mountain West to No. 20 UNLV, those two berths would not have been available to the Hurricanes and Rebels. Ole Miss didn't have a case to be in over Alabama based on résumé, and Miami's strength of schedule was much weaker.
So then, why did the committee paint itself into that corner where it had to exclude a "bubble" team that really didn't belong on the bubble at all? This year, it's going to run into the same problem.
The CFP Selection Committee should wait until after conference championships for final rankings
Miami (10-2) is right back on the bubble at No. 12 in both the CFP and Associated Press rankings. After defeating No. 22 Pittsburgh 38-7, it's unlikely the committee drops the Hurricanes any lower than that.
But as many fans know, Miami is not in the ACC Championship Game yet is the highest ranked team from that conference. It makes no sense and it's an embarrassment to the CFP committee to be right back in this scenario where it's going to exclude a top-ranked team for a conference champion it ranked lower (No. 18 Virginia or unranked Duke).
The same false hope is going to be given to those like No. 11 BYU (11-1) — who clearly won't get in the field unless it defeats No. 5 Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship — or No.14 Vanderbilt (10-2) and No. 16 Texas (9-3).
While the committee made those mistakes earlier in the season, it could easily avoid the humiliation and criticism by refraining from releasing any rankings ahead of conference championships. Let the games play out and then release the 12-team bracket based on the results.