Just last week, Memphis thought their College Football Playoff hopes were shot after an upset road loss to UAB — a team that had just fired head coach Trent Dilfer. But after Saturday, they just might force the selection committee to do the unthinkable and make the American Athletic Conference a two-bid league. It’s a tough argument to make, but it’s not an irrational one.
The AAC has arguably been more competitive than the ACC this year. And if we’re being honest, even if it isn’t the popular concept, freezing the ACC out altogether if they continue to beat each other (and the favorites continue to get upset) shouldn’t be out of the question. South Florida has been in the CFP conversation for much of the season after they stunned Florida to get ranked for the first time this season.
While South Florida’s loss is to an unranked team, it’s to a Memphis team that was a CFP favorite entering 2025 and was ranked earlier this year — and will probably be ranked again after this huge win. The Bulls shouldn’t get punished for their lone loss of the season to Memphis, and the CFP committee should give the AAC the benefit of the doubt that this year. They make a strong argument to have its two strongest teams in the field, and whichever team winds up in the at-large conversation would stack up pretty well against all of the ACC's non-champs.
What does Memphis’ upset win mean for the ACC’s path to the College Football Playoff?
If you’re an ACC team, and particularly one like Miami and Louisville, the last thing you want is South Florida losing to Memphis. Because the CFP selection committee could seriously consider giving USF the benefit of the doubt despite being a one-loss, Group of 5 team. After all, South Florida would probably beat every other team in the conference not named Miami, and they have proof of concept after beating both Boise State and Florida to start the year.
Georgia Tech is the strongest team in the conference up to this point. They’re the only undefeated team in the conference, and honestly the only consistent one. They should be the only team to reach the CFP, regardless of who they play in the ACC title game.
Conference reputation aside, you can’t convince me the ACC deserves more teams in the CFP field this year over the AAC, and you can’t confidently say Memphis or South Florida should be booted out after the seasons they’ve respectively had. Memphis and South Florida’s game wasn’t just about watching two of the best G5 teams play on the big stage, it was about showing the country why the expanded CFP field opens up the chance for anomalies.
I get it, a Playoff field that potentially features Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Memphis and South Florida doesn’t sound appealing. But wouldn’t it be fun if one or multiple of those teams went on a run and proved the CFP doesn’t have to be a Big Ten/SEC invitational to be exciting?
Is there a realistic path for the AAC to be a two-bid league in the College Football Playoff?
The only way the AAC can even imagine two teams from the conference landing in the CFP field is if both Memphis and South Florida win out. While Navy and Tulane are both undefeated in conference play and control their own destiny, Memphis and South Florida have the reputation thanks to having already been ranked (and making major out-of-conference statements) this season. Memphis has to play both Tulane and Navy, giving them the tougher path. That said, if they manage to finish the rest of the season with just the lone loss to UAB, landing in the AAC title game, you have to consider the Tigers getting an at-large bid should they lose in the rematch to USF.
The best way for them to get an at-large bid would be an AAC title game loss to South Florida. Assuming both teams will be ranked after Memphis’ win, there’s no reason why both teams shouldn’t get into the CFP field. If Clemson was able to beat SMU and get both teams in last year, you could argue Memphis and South Florida should have that same benefit of the doubt.
It won’t be easy to make that decision, because at the end of the day neither South Florida nor Memphis have the brand recognition that would warrant putting them both in over a slightly-above-average P4 team. This is all a long shot, but it’s not out of the question.
The expanded College Football Playoff was a way to not punish teams for an early-season loss or punish good one-loss teams. It was also created to not punish teams that lost in the conference title game. A Memphis-South Florida AAC title game would prove just why both teams should get in.