In the past two MLB offseasons, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto were the best available and both earned record-breaking contracts. Once the 2025 season concludes, the top free agent will undoubtedly be Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Blue Jays' offseason didn't go as they expected, as they missed out on big free agents like Soto and Corbin Burnes. To make matters worse, the Blue Jays didn't meet Guerrero's deadline to reach an agreement on a contract extension. Once Guerrero arrived at the team's spring training facility, the deadline had been passed by, and now, the first baseman will test free agency. Now, it will be a matter of how much he can receive in free agency.
Could the latest update actually help Toronto's odds of keeping Guerrero?
New York Post MLB insider Jon Heyman says in his latest column that given the 15-year, $765 million contract Soto received from the New York Mets, Guerrero "will want $600 million-plus" on his next contract.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projected asking price could work in Blue Jays' favor
Ohtani first shattered the record for most lucrative contract in sports (despite $680 million of the $700 million being deferred). Then, Soto earned $65 million more total than Ohtani over a 15-year span. Both fielded offers from multiple teams. But would there be as many teams in on Guerrero at that asking price.
Heyman talked about the Guerrero asking price on a Bleacher Report stream, and who are considered the favorites. Heyman lists the Mets, Boston Red Sox, and Blue Jays.
"My guesses would be Red Sox," Heyman said, h/t Athlon Sports. "I don't know what their thoughts are on [Triston] Casas... He was out there on the trade market, so that's no impediment to signing Vlad Guerrero Jr. Mets, I know they say they're gonna be more cautious spending... The Jays, I think he likes the Jays... To me, those are the three teams."
Given the $600 million projection, there may not be a vast field of teams in the running for Guerrero. As Heyman said, the Mets would have to pay well over the "Steve Cohen tax" threshold, which is 110-percent. Given the Mets just gave Soto a $765 million deal, maybe the Mets opt to be a bit more cautious, as Heyman says.
The Red Sox are viewed as the favorites, with USA Today's Bob Nightengale reporting that Guerrero has told friends that he'd "love" to head to Boston. Team owner John Henry hasn't spent a ton of money in the past, but changed that by bringing in Alex Bregman and Walker Buehler this offseason.
Besides those teams, there may not be any other suitors for Guerrero who could get into the $600 million ballpark. That could bode well for the Blue Jays, who have swung and missed on multiple top free agents. So, they have money at their disposal to compete with opponents in the bidding war. It will notably be up to what other teams offer and if Guerrero wants to stay with the team long-term.
There is still a whole season left to play, but next winter baseball and can get ready for another sweepstakes for a superstar free agent.