It looked so rosy for Newcastle just a few weeks ago. After easing past Arsenal in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semifinal 2-0 for a 4-0 aggregate win, the Magpies were into a cup final, one of the bigger teams left in the FA Cup, perhaps the favorite for the fifth spot (or better) to qualify for next year's Champions League. St. James's Park was bouncing even more so than usual, and more Newcastle shirts were being twirled overhead (it's their thing up there).
Now, they're out of the FA Cup after losing at home, they've lost four of their last six league games (and one of those wins was against Southampton), and they'll be missing their second-best player (Anthony Gordon) for the League Cup Final in a week and a half thanks to him losing his rag late in Saturday's loss. Soccer cares not for your feelings.
Newcastle's biggest problem of late is that they just aren't showing up in the second half. The stats are pretty stark. A month ago, when they lost to Fulham at home by giving up two second-half goals, they managed only four shots in the second 45 and generated just 0.22 xG while Fulham piled up 1.45 xG. When they were paddled by Man City, they had just one second-half shot even while trailing by three at halftime.
Even after being up 4-1 at half against Forest at home, they had just three shots in the second half, created just 0.15 xG while Forest stormed back and nearly drew level. Liverpool held them to two second-half shots and 0.10 xG even though they were only down a goal at half. They only had two shots in the 2nd half against Brighton on Sunday.
Now, the shirtless Newcastle fan in your life (is there any other kind?) could mitigate some of these. The City game was already lost. Liverpool are the best team in the country and probably Europe and Alexander Isak didn't play. Forest was already well-beaten and Newcastle didn't need to push forward. They were all over Brighton in the second half of extra time. It's only a brief sample.
All of that's fair enough, but seeing as how it's all in a row, it feels a bit more like a trend than some weird spike. When teams fade like this in the second half, the natural conclusion is fatigue.
Newcastle's second-half problems are anything but simple
Looking at their player usage, it isn't terribly out of whack. 10 outfield players have played more than 1,000 minutes so far in the league for Newcastle. Liverpool have used 11 that much, Arsenal 10, Forest 11, City 11, Chelsea 11.
If restricted to matches started, there's a little more separation. Newcatle have had 10 players who have started at least 10 matches in the Premier League this season. All the clubs around or above them in the table have started 12 or more players in 10 matches or more. It's not a huge gap, but it is a gap. Especially when you consider that their midfield three of Sandro Tonali, Joelinton, and Bruno Guimarâes are basically the only three midfielders they ever use.
Looking a little deeper, Newcastle as a whole are one of the more pressing teams in the league. They rank 7th in PPDA, or passes per defensive action, which measures how long it takes for a team to try and win the ball back off their opponents. They rank behind Arsenal, Bournemouth, Spurs, Man City, Liverpool, and United, all of whom are associated with high-pressing and winning the ball back up high and creating chances through havoc.
However, Newcastle rank 11th in possession, so while they may not press as aggressively as other teams, they're having to do it more often because they don't have the ball as much. Bournemouth press more and have the ball less, but you might notice that everyone on Bournemouth got hurt. They're also winless in their last three (though going through on penalties on Saturday).
What's strange about Newcastle is that despite being a top-half pressing team...they don't really win the ball a lot? They're 11th in tackles in the attacking third per match. Which isn't a huge deal, as Liverpool and City rank right above them. But they don't win the ball in midfield either, ranking 16th in tackles in the middle third of the field. Overall, Newcastle attempt the fourth-least amount of tackles per game. But the three teams ahead of them — Arsenal, City, Chelsea — have the ball way more than Newcastle do. Newcastle "press" in that they chase down the ball a lot. They just kinda only chase it instead of getting it. (all stats provided by FBref.com).
Which would tend to make one think that Newcastle are running around a lot without actually winning the ball, meaning they're having to cover the whole field instead of winning the ball back up high and generating chances from that (and they don't, they're 10th in shots per game). We know Eddie Howe teams like to be aggressive, especially at home, and Newcastle are at least trying to be aggressive enough. It's just not resulting in anything. Considering how hard that midfield tends to work, and it's only three of them, it wouldn't be a huge shock if they're flagging.
The good news for Newcastle is that their schedule is about to give them a huge break, They only have two games left for the entire month of March, one of them being the League Cup final. There's an international break in there, which isn't exactly a rest for players, but they'll have the next weekend off thanks to the FA Cup quarters they won't be participating in. They'll have a breather.
They'll need it, as they compete for a Champions League place. They could also use the time to maybe figure out how to stop running around so much without actually doing much to affect matches. Work smarter, not harder, that whole thing.