NFL DFS picks: Sunday's Week 12 bargain bin for the main slate

Okay, last week was ugly. We're going to need to burn the tape on DFS picks and then bury it and flood that area with 100 feet of water. It's time to get back to fundamentals!

We have six teams on bye this week, so the player pool is pretty low

Sunday's Week 12 NFL DFS bargain bin for main slate

1. Quarterbacks
2. Running backs
3. Wide receivers
4. Tight ends

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs Patriots ($5,800)

Tagovailoa is coming off his best game of the year, as he threw for 288 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions at home against the Raiders last week. This week he gets a similarly easy matchup at home against the Patriots, who rank 31st against the pass in DVOA and 29th in EPA. Amazingly, they've been able to limit opposing quarterbacks from putting up big points, but they did just get gutted by Matthew Stafford for four touchdowns. I like what Drake Maye hs been doing of late and I expect he has a good game, which could elevate the passing and fantasy upside overall.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers at Giants ($6.1k)

This is the lowest price Mayfield has been since Week 2, as he's coming off a bye and a down game against the 49ers. The good news is that the bye should have his receivers much healthier, including Mike Evans, who will play. And, Mayfield has been a fantasy start all season, even with the injuries to his receivers. He's only had two games all season where he fell below 18 DK points, while hitting over 27 DK points five times.

The Giants aren't especially good defensively, ranking 24th in DVOA against the pass, giving Mayfeild his best matchup since he put up 330 yards and three touchdowns against Atlanta (and three picks, but he still scored 27 DK points!)

Running backs

Kareem Hunt, Chiefs at Panthers ($5.7k)

Well, everyone and their dog is going to be on this play after news that Isiah Pacheco won't play this week, likely because the team shouldn't need him to beat the Panthers. Hunt hasn't been efficient, but he has gotten big workloads and this is a week he should continue to see plenty of touches in a game the Chiefs should lead throughout. Add in the fact the Panthers have been abysmal against running backs this year, ranking 32nd in DVOA and 31st in EPA against the run. His price appears to be so low due to the fact Pacheco looked like he might play, so take that discount, especially in cash games.

Brian Robinson, Commanders vs. Cowboys ($5.6k)

Robinson has seven touchdowns in eight games played this year and is the clear lead back on a good offense about to face an awful defense. Quarterback Jayden Daniels' ability as a runner also makes it difficult for defenses to key in on Robinson when his quarterback could also take off with the ball. But in the end, this is a bad Cowboys team that isn't likely to score much with Cooper Rush at the helm, which should give Robinson plenty of chances to run the ball with a lead against the fourth-worst team at allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Wide receivers

Josh Downs, Colts vs. Lions ($6.2k)

There aren't many wide receivers I like for cheap this week. Of course, there are risky picks that could really pay off, Xavier Worthy or Christian Watson are a couple I like, but I'd only want to use them in bigger tournaments. For cash games, I'd like to be able to pay up for Downs. He has shown consistency and even with the quarterback change back to Anthony Richardson, Downs still was able to put up good numbers. He's had four or more receptions in 7-of-9 games and five or more in 6-of-9. The Lions give up the most receptions to wide receivers in the league, as they are often playing with big leads. That is very much likely again this week and Downs should see even more targets than usual.

DJ Moore, Bears vs. Vikings ($5.5k)

Moore hasn't been good this season, but we know how good he can be. And with the change at OC in Chicago, we saw the team give Moore plays underneath to get him going. He didn't end up putting up big numbers, but did catch all seven of his targets for 62 yards. That was his best fantasy day since Week 5. This week he gets a Vikings pass defense that is weak agains wide receivers, ranking 30th in fantasy points allowed to the position. Hopefully we get some easy targets for Moore to give his a good floor, while giving him a few shots deep in a game the bears should trail.

Tight ends

Jonnu Smith, Dolphins vs. Patriots ($4.1k)

Smith has come on of late, as the Dolphins have fociused more on the quick passing game to keep Tua Tagovailoa from taking too many unneeded hits to the head. That has helped Smith's target numbers and last week he caught 6-of-8 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown. His ability after the catch is what makes him so appealing, as he can take fairly short, easy routes and receptions and make a big gain out of them.

Hunter Henry, Patriots at Dolphins ($4k)

On the other side of the field, Henry should be Drake Maye's No. 1 target. He's caught five or more passes in four of his last five games and his team should trail in this matchup, pushing Maye to throw more than he'd like. Miami ranks 21st in DVOA against tight ends and were just run through by Brock Bowers.