NFL DFS picks: Sunday's Week 11 bargain bin for the main slate

Oof. Last week was not a great one for this fantasy football article. Sam Darnold had a full-on Darnolding, while De'Andre Swift was taken down by a dysfunctional Bears offense. At least those are my excuses. There were a few hits in there, thank you to Mr. Purdy and Mr. Jennings. But we shall strive for perfection each week! Let's give it another go!

This week looks a little easier to pay down at quarterback than previous weeks, which is why I have three value plays at the position. Running back remains difficult to find value, and will likely be a spot a pay-up for, at least in part. Wide receiver is a mixed bag, with some decent low-cost plays, while tight end looks like a good spot to spend down on as usual.

Sunday's Week 11 NFL DFS bargain bin for main slate

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye, Patriots vs. Rams ($5.6k)

Maye is of course a risky pick, as the Patriots are missing a lot of talent on offense. But, Maye has played well when considering that talent and he's shown fantasy upside as well. The good news is that he will run and he's good at it. He's averaging 9.3 yards per carry on 23 carries through 5.5 games. He's also had some tough matchups of late, with the Bears and Titans on the road. His only full home game was his debut against the Texans, where he put up his strongest fantasy day in mostly garbage time. This week he finally has a chance at another home start and in a much better matchup than he's had recently.

Against the pass, the Rams rank 21st in DVOA and 22nd in EPA. They also rank 22nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. The Rams are also 4.5 point favorites on the road here, which means we should see the Patriots forced to throw the ball and possible play up-tempo. If I'm rolling with Maye this week, I'm likely going to pair him with Hunter Henry.

Russell Wilson, Steelers vs. Ravens ($5.9k)

Wilson has played well since taking the job back from Justin Fields. In his three starts he's had two Top 10 fantasy quarterback finishes, while the Ravens have allowed seven quarterbacks to finish in the Top 12 this season. The stats are all quite damning for the Ravens pass defense, which gets tested a lot due to the Ravens juggernaut offense and their strong run defense.

Bo Nix, Broncos vs. Falcons ($6.2k)

The Falcons pass defense is bad and now they head to high elevation to take on a Broncos team that is hard to get a handle on, but a team that continues to put up a fight with Bo Nix at the helm. On the season the Falcons have only kept two teams from throwing for two or mre touchdowns against them. They also rank 26th in pass defense DVOA, while ranking 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Nix has put up inconsistent numbers as you'd expect in his rookie year, but he's also played well as a rusher and had plenty of games where he's looked like a useful passer. Just last week against the Chiefs in Kansas City, he almost pulled off the upset as he threw for over 200 yards and hit two touchdown passes. His 215 yards passing were the most the Chiefs had given up since Week 3.

Running backs

Audric Estime, Broncos vs. Falcons ($4.5k)

You aren't going to find a cheap running back with much upside this week, but Estime is as close as we can get. He appeared to take over last week as the erarly down back over Javonte Williams, as he rushed 14 times for 53 yards against a good Chiefs run defense. The trouble is his lack of involvement in the passing game. But, the Broncos are actually favorites in this game. If they can hold a lead throughout, Estime could easily put up good yardage and find the end zone at least once. But there is no doubt he is risky.

Nick Chubb, Browns at Saints ($6k)

Chubb is risky because we haven't seen him play close to his old self in three games since returning from his knee injury. But, a bye week and a great matchup could be enough to get him over the hump this week.

Wide receivers

Cedric Tillman, Browns at Saints ($5.3k)

Tillman is still way too cheap for the volume and positive results he's had over the last three weeks. The loss of Marshon Lattimore also helps, as the Saints have been stingy to No. 1 wide receivers. Of course, the Browns also have Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore, who have all shown some usefullness in fantasy with Jameis Winston behind center. Winston should get a clean pocket this week, as the Saints are below average in pressure percentage. And he needs that pocket.

Jakobi Meyers, Raiders at Dolphins ($5.6k)

Meyers continues to play well despite his team not being good at much of anything. It really comes down to him or Brock Bowers in the receiving game and he's taken advantage of a good workload since Davante Adams left for greener, but not better pastures.

The Dolphins have been weak against No. 1 receivers, ranking 31st in DVOA against them. Meyers hasn't dipped below 13 fantasy points or six receptions in his last three games.

Tight ends

Dawson Knox, Bills vs. Chiefs ($3.5k)

Dalton Kincaid is out this week, which should boost Knox up the target tiers against a Chiefs team that has been weak against tight ends. On the season, Kansas City has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position. They've also allowed the most receptions and yardage per game to tight ends. At just $3.5k and in a game that will likely be fought to the bitter end, I expect Knox to at least give us value for his price.

Davis Allen, Rams at Patriots ($2.5k)

If you're looking to punt the position, Davis Allen makes sense. He's taken over the lead tight end role from Colby Parkinson, but his pricetag doesn't reflect that. Last week he caught 5-of-6 targets for 34 yards. The yadage is not good, but the targets and receptions are.