NFL DFS picks: Sunday's Week 15 bargain bin for the main slate
By Chet Gresham
Welcome to Week 15 of the NFL season. If you didn't get into the fantasy playoffs with your season-long teams, this is the week you can completely focus on DFS! Or, do as you usually do and play 15 iterations of fantasy football across the internet.
We don't have any byes this week, so we've got 12 games on the main slate. Amazingly, we don't have many smash plays that everyone will glom onto. The Ravens taking on the Giants sounds fun, but if and when Tommy DeVito doesn't push them, it's just going to be a whole lot of Derrick Henry. And yes, paying up for Henry looks like a safe move this week.
Josh Allen has a tough matchup with the Lions strong defense, but it's a game where both teams need wins for seeding and both teams are very good and will bring the best out of each other. I feel a lot better grabbing players from those kinds of games instead of lopsided affairs.
Sunday's Week 15 NFL DFS bargain bin for main slate
Bargain DFS Quarterbacks
Will Levis, Titans vs. Bengals ($5k)
Bargain quarterbacks have been tough to pinpoint this season, as no truly cheap play has blown up at the position. That fact keeps me leaning toward paying up for a quarterback I feel good about most weeks. But, I'm still going to give some of these cheaper guys in good matchups a shot in big tournaments.
Levis looked like a good start last week against the Jaguars, but he tweaked his throwing shoulder which was hurt earlier in the season. The good news is he's practicing in full this week and appears to be okay. And, he gets a Bengals defense that is plain bad. They've been bad this year, but now that Joe Burrow and company are playing near the top of their game, the defense is getting even more teams passing the ball to keep up. They've allowed two or more passing touchdowns to eight quarterback this season while allowing the third-most fantasy points and passing touchdowns on the year.
Aaron Rodgers, Jets vs Jaguars ($5.4k)
Rodgers has lost a lot of his upside along with his youth and reuptation, but he has a strong enough set of receivers to help his floor, especially in a good matchup like this one. He also is coming off his first 300+ yard passing game in years despite his numerous injuries that he wouldn't get tested for, but had leaked to the press.
The Jaguars pass defense ranks 28th in completions allowed, 31st in receiving yards, 30th in passing touchdowns, 28th in interceptions, and 30th in fantasy points per passing attempt. Those aren't good numbers, plus, they are one of the worst at stopping receiving backs, with the second-most receiving yards allowed. And with the 31st ranked pressure rate on quarterbacks, Rodgers should have plenty of time to find his best friend over the middle.
Bargain DFS running backs
Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos vs. Colts ($4.7k)
Relying on a Broncos running back is not a smart decision, but sprinkling one into your tournament lineups is something I plan on doing this week. That Broncos back this time is Jaleel McLaughlin.
McLaughlin led the team last week, rushing 14 times for 84 yards against the Browns. The week before he "led" the team with seven carries for 44 yards. This week he'll face a Colts defense that has given up the third-most total yards to running backs on the season. With the Broncos as 4.5 point favorites, they should be able to get a lead and push McLaughlin's touches up this week if he's still the guy they want touching the ball the most.
Rico Dowdle, Cowboys at Panthers ($6.1k)
Dowdle is the cheapest running back that is also one of the top plays on the slate. All the signs point to him once again seeing a good workload against a weak run defense. He's now topped 19 touches in three straight games while averaging 120 total yards. The Panthers give up the most rushing yards at 1,802. The second-worst team is the Colts at 1,534 yards! If you add in receiving yards, running backs are avering 170 total yards per game against them.
The Panthers are slight favorites at home, but this game should be close and Dowdle should get a big workload on the ground. I do wish he got more work as a receiver, but for his price I think we can still feel very good about this matchup.
Bargain DFS wide receivers
Adam Thielen, Panthers vs. Cowboys ($5.4k)
Thielen and Bryce Young have been on the same page since his return from I.R in Week 12. But over the last two games we've seen Thielen take over as the no-doubt main target with 17 receptions for 201 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs and Eagles. Now he gets a matchup with the leaky Cowboys defense and should be in line for another high volume game.
DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs at Browns ($5.3k)
Hopkins hasn't put up consistently big numbers since landing with the Chiefs, but he has been the lead wide receiver, seeing nine targets in each of his last two games. He also has two touchdowns in his last three and six red zone targets in his last six. The Browns have been extra bad at getting beat deep of late and Hopkins has been the Chiefs leading target deep since his acquisition.
Bargain DFS tight ends
Jordan Akins, Browns vs. Chiefs ($2.7k)
Injury news is dictating cheap tight end plays at this point, so we might need to keep an eye on a few guys before setting those lineups. It sure looked like David Njoku would be out this week, but there appears to be some hope he will play against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are my favorite team to target tight ends with and we know Jameis Winston is going to throw the ball a lot and give his receivers opportunities. Jordan Akisn should be the main backup for Njoku and he has shown some upside in the past. I like him as a punt play if Njoku cant go.
Stone Smartt, Chargers vs. Buccaneers ($2.6k)
I don't love any of the more expensive tight ends this week, so I'm fully in on punting the position. Smartt, in place of the injured Will Dissly, is a possibility for cheap after he caught three passes for 55 yards in the second half last week. It's not a lot to go on, but the game flow should be faster and more pass oriented with Baker Mayfield coming to town.