NFL DFS picks: Sunday's Week 9 bargain bin for the main slate
By Chet Gresham
Welcome to Week 9 of the DFS bargain bin. Week 8 went pretty well, as Jameis Winston and Bo Nix put up strong numbers, especially for their price. Overall, it was a positive week of fantasy football, so I'm ready to build off that and keep giving you some useful plays for cheap.
Sunday's Week 9 NFL DFS bargain bin for main slate
Quarterbacks
Bo Nix, Broncos at Ravens ($5.9k)
I see no need to jump off the Bo Nix train as they meet the Ravens this week. Sure, the Ravens are a million times better than the Panthers, but this matchup is still set up well for Nix. The Broncos defense is great, but the Ravens offense is better. That fact should push Nix to throw in comeback mode and also scramble, which is of course great for fantasy.
Nix has rushed for 259 yards and four touchdowns this year and is coming off his best passing day of the season with 284 yards passing and three touchdown passes to zero interceptions. After starting the season with back-to-back two interception games, Nix has thrown just one pick in his last six games. Add in the fact that the Ravens have allowed the third-most fatnasy points to opposing quarterback has me all in once again.
Justin Herbert, Chargers vs. Browns ($5.3k)
Herbert has been playing out of his mind of late, but in a John Harbaugh/Greg Roman offense, that fact doesn't mean Herbert is a strong fantasy play. The good news is that the team has been opening things up a bit and allowing Herbert to throw more than early in the season. Through the first four games, Herbert didn't attempt more than 27 passes in a game, since then, he's thrown 34, 39, and 32 attempts. Last week he also had a 38 yard run.
Herbert is slowly moving up the fantasy ranks, but we do have to know his upside is lower than other quarterbacks due to the conservative nature of the Chargers' offense. And the lack of receiving weapons isn't the best either. The good news is that Herbert has played so well that he doesn't need an All-Pro lineup to complete passes. And he'll get Quinten Johnston back this week, who he had a good connection with early in the season.
Herbert should also be a contrary play, as they're playing the Cleveland Browns. The Browns defense is good, but they aren't as good as they were last season and rank 20th in pass defense EPA. They've allowed two touchdown passes and no interceptions to Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson over their last six games. Plus, Jameis Winston makes their offense a lot better, which should help them put up points and push the Chargers to do more than hand the ball off.
Running backs
Chase Brown, Bengals vs. Raiders ($5.9k)
I had Brown in this column already, but with news dropping that Zack Moss is considered doubtful this week, I'm even happier to suggest Brown in a good matchup. This does make it more likely Brown is heavily rostered, but that's what you have to deal with when a player is in such a good spot at a good price.
The Raiders defense is middling, but is below average against the run, ranking 23rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Add in that the Bengals are 7-point favorites, and I expect Brown to see plenty of attempts, while possibly getting an uptick in receiving work.
Tyrone Tracy, Giants vs. Commanders ($5.5k)
After suffering a head injury on Monday night, it appeared Tracy would have trouble clearing concussion protocol, but that was in fact not the case. Tracy has been cleared and has a good matchup.
Julius Chestnut, Titans vs. Patriots ($4.0k)
Tony Pollard didn't practice this week, but is listed as questionable, while Tyjae Spears is out. If Pollard can't go, Chestnut should take over as the lead back. He hasn't played much, but he has upside, especially in a good matchup like this. The Patriots have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season and if Pollard can't go, Chestnut has a shot to be a nice value play this weekend.
Wide receivers
Courtland Sutton, Broncos at Ravens ($5.4k)
Finding cheap wide receivers is tough. I like a few super cheap receivers this week, but I don't especially feel great about playing them in DFS. But these two guys are still relatively cheap and they feel much safer than the under 4k receivers I like this week.
Sutton is coming off a strong game last week against the Panthers and is set up to be the main guy in a great matchup and game script against the Ravens. He's priced low for a reason, but his quarterback continues to improve each week and appears to know Sutton is his best hope of moving the ball through the air.
Ladd McConkey, Chargers at Browns ($5.6k)
McConkey would likely be a top fantasy player if he had landed on a team that wants to throw the ball. But the good news is that Harbaugh and company are throwing the ball more, he's their best receiver, and Justin Herbert is quite good at football. McConkey broke out last week with six receptions for 111 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints. This week he takes on a Browns pass defense that ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA and 26th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki, Bengals vs. Raiders ($3.1k)
With Tee Higgins out again, this should be another game where Gesicki is relied upon more than usual. So far this season, Gesicki is averaging more than five receptions when Higgins is out and under two receptions when Higgins is in. With just the likely volume increase on its own, I'm good to play him at his price.
Taysom Hill, Saints vs. Panthers ($3.8k)
Hill remains risky, but this week he's in a great spot against an extremely weak Panthers defense. The Saints will also be without Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams, which sets up well for Hill to see more rushing attempts than usual. His upside is in the red zone, where he gets used often. If he doesn't score a touchdown, his overall usage makes it tough to be a fantasy asset. That has me leaning toward using him in bigger tournaments versus cash games this week.