NFL playoff clinching, tiebreak, elimination scenarios for Week 13: Bills can clinch the division

We've reached Thanksgiving, which means it's finally no longer too early to take a deep dive into the NFL playoff picture. Sure, there are still six weeks remaining in the regular season, a lot can change. But the finish line is in sight, and the contenders have begun to separate themselves — in fact, three of them can officially punch their ticket to the postseason as soon as this weekend. (While on the other side, three teams can find themselves officially eliminated.)

Who can start dreaming of January football, and who can fire up the ol' mock draft simulator? Here are all the clinching and elimination scenarios for Week 13 in the NFL.

NFL standings entering Week 13

First, let's take a look at where the standings are entering the week.

Current AFC playoff picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1, 1st AFC West)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2, 1st AFC East)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, 1st AFC North)
4. Houston Texans (7-5, 1st AFC South)

5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
7. Denver Broncos (7-5)
8. Miami Dolphins (5-6)
9. Indianapolis Colts (5-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
11. Cleveland Browns (3-8)
12. New York Jets (3-8)
13. Tennessee Titans (3-8)
14. New England Patriots (3-9)
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)

Current NFC playoff picture

1. Detroit Lions (10-1, 1st NFC North)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2, 1st NFC East)
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5, 1st NFC West)
4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5, 1st NFC South)

5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
7. Washington Commanders (7-5)
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-5)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
10. Los Angeles Rams (5-6)
11. San Francisco 49ers (5-6)
12. New Orleans Saints (4-7)
13. Chicago Bears (4-7)
14. Dallas Cowboys (4-7)
15. Carolina Panthers (3-8)
16. New York Giants (2-9)

NFL playoff clinching scenarios in Week 13

How the Buffalo Bills can clinch the AFC East

This one's straightforward, starting with the Miami Dolphins' showdown against the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving night. If Miami loses at Lambeau Field, then the Bills can sew up a fifth straight division title with a win over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. A Buffalo win combined with a Dolphins loss would put the Bills up five games with five left to play, and Buffalo controls the tiebreaker after sweeping Miami already this season.

The statuses of Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa and Trent Williams are all up in the air, which could make things much easier for Buffalo this weekend. Even if they don't clinch this week, though, the AFC East crown is just a formality at this point.

How the Kansas City Chiefs can clinch a playoff spot

The Chiefs still can't quite clinch the AFC West, as the Chargers and Broncos have proven to be stiffer competition than anticipated. But Andy Reid's team can at least secure a playoff spot on Sunday, provided they get some help from some Wild Card contenders.

• KC win over Raiders AND Dolphins loss/tie, or
• KC tie vs. Raiders AND Dolphins loss, or
• KC win over Raiders AND Broncos loss, or
• KC win over Raiders AND Broncos tie AND Chargers loss

Basically, Kansas City is already assured to finish ahead of every team outside of the AFC's top six save for Denver and Miami. A loss from either of those teams coupled with a Chiefs win over the Raiders on Black Friday would ensure K.C. finishes no worse than seventh come season's end. This team has its sights set a whole lot higher than that, though.

How the Detroit Lions can clinch a playoff spot

We'll be honest: This is by far the most outlandish clinching scenario this week. But it is still technically possible for the Lions to wrap up a playoff spot by the end of play on Sunday, if they can beat the Bears on Thanksgiving and get several other results involving potential NFC Wild Card teams to break their way. Brace yourselves:

• Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks loss AND Cardinals loss/tie AND Buccaneers loss/tie, or
• Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Buccaneers loss/tie, or
• Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks loss AND Cardinals loss/tie AND Falcons loss AND Commanders loss/tie, or
• Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Falcons loss AND Commanders loss/tie, or
• Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Falcons loss AND Commanders loss/tie, or
• Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks loss AND Cardinals loss/tie AND Falcons tie AND Commanders loss, or
• Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Falcons tie AND Commanders loss, or
• Lions tie vs. Bears AND 49ers loss AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Buccaneers loss AND Packers win (plus additional strength of victory scenarios)

The simplest (well, "simplest") scenario involves a Lions win plus losses by the top three NFC West teams along with the Bucs. The Niners and Cardinals play the Bills and Vikings, respectively, but it's hard to see Tampa Bay losing to Carolina (Bryce Young's improved play notwithstanding) and the Seahawks losing at a lifeless Jets team.

NFL playoff elimination scenarios in Week 13

How the New York Giants can be eliminated from playoff contention

With Daniel Jones released and Tommy DeVito now starting, the tank is officially on for the Giants. And they can dispense with all pretense this week, and it doesn't even necessarily require a loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

• Giants loss vs. Cowboys, or
• Giants tie vs. Cowboys AND Commanders win/tie, or
• Packers win/tie AND Commanders win

The Giants are in a three-way tie with a couple of other teams on this list, the Raiders and Jaguars, for the worst record in the NFL; as things stand, the Jags currently hold that tiebreaker and would pick first in the 2025 NFL Draft.

How the Las Vegas Raiders can be eliminated from playoff contention

This is the simplest elimination path of any of the four teams: Lose on Black Friday against the Chiefs, Las Vegas will be officially eliminated from playoff contention at 2-10.

• Raiders loss vs. Chiefs
• or Raiders tie vs. Chiefs AND Chargers win/tie AND Broncos win/tie

It's safe to say that Antonio Pierce wasn't quite ready for primetime after all, and now the Raiders should be solely focused on maximizing draft capital and finding a quarterback who can lead the team into a new era.

How the Jacksonville Jaguars can be eliminated from playoff contention

A loss to the Texans on Sunday would officially remove the Jags from AFC South contention, while several other results could stick a fork in their playoff hopes entirely. (Not that Jacksonville fans still had any of those.)

• Jaguars loss vs. Texans AND Chargers win/tie AND Broncos win/tie
• or Jaguars tie vs. Texans AND Chargers win AND Broncos win

Trevor Lawrence's contract means he's not going anywhere any time soon, but finding the right infrastructure around him will be critical — and that means moving on from not just head coach Doug Pederson but GM Trent Baalke as well.

How the New England Patriots can be eliminated from playoff contention

At 3-9 and already out of the divisional race, the Pats can be eliminated from Wild Card contention with a loss against the Colts on Sunday and wins from several different combinations of teams ahead of them.

• Patriots loss vs. Colts AND Chargers win/tie AND Broncos win/tie, or
• Patriots loss vs. Colts AND Chargers win/tie AND Texans win/tie, or
• Patriots loss vs. Colts AND Chargers win/tie AND Dolphins win, or
• Patriots tie vs. Colts AND Chargers win AND Broncos win

Of course, this season was never about making the playoffs for New England. It was about laying a foundation for the future. And while the jury is still very much out on head coach Jerod Mayo, first-round pick Drake Maye sure looks like the franchise quarterback capable of taking this team into a new era of contention moving forward.