NFL Thanksgiving Day picks and predictions (Straight-Up and ATS): Lions end Matt Eberflus era?

NFL Thanksgiving Day is one of the best traditions in sports — so much so that the holiday has become completely synonymous with football itself. And we have an intriguing three-game set in NFL Week 13 to kick off the week on Thursday.

We obviously have the Lions, arguably the best team in the NFL right now, hosting the rival Bears. It's a game fans in Chicago will be watching intently for the fate of head coach Matt Eberflus. Then we have the other Thanksgiving staple, the Dallas Cowboys, hosting the rival Giants in a game that has certainly lost some luster without Dak Prescott and, perhaps, Daniel Jones. The nightcap will then be the Packers hosting the high-flying Dolphins.

So rather than include the Thanksgiving picks outside of our normal NFL Week 13 predictions, we're going to give this trio of games it's own shine. After a dismal Week 12, let's get into the Week 13 picks for Thanksgiving Day.

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2024 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 100-63 (Last Week: 7-6) | ATS Record: 87-76-0 (Last Week: 4-9)

NFL Week 13 predictions: Thanksgiving picks and predictions straight-up and ATS

We're going chalk across the board on Thanksgiving Day with the favorites at home not just winning but all covering the spread as well. That seems like it will absolutely backfire and blow up in our faces, sure, but hey, let's not think about that. It's a new week and a holiday start to NFL Week 13 and it does seem like there is a bit of clear delineation in these matchups based on numerous things.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-10.5)

In all honesty, I think we could watch the end of the Matt Eberflus era transpire on Thanksgiving Day. The Bears head coach has been on the hot seat, at least by the measure of the fanbase, for quite some time. Now he has to take his team on the road to Detroit where Terry Glenn will have plenty dialed up to attack this talented but highly imperfect Bears offense. And for as good as Chicago's defense has been, there have been few answers throughout the entire league for Ben Johnson's stylings with this group.

While a spread over 10 points on a short week doesn't make me feel great about the Lions on that side of the coin, the matchup and the vibes around the Bears make me think that this could be a blowout in the Motor City, hence what could be the final straw for Eberflus.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

We were promised the unbelievable matchup of Tommy DeVito vs. Cooper Rush, a QB battle for the ages. But now even that is in question with DeVito as it's looking less likely that the Giants quarterback plays. Drew Lock might actually be an upgrade but I'm not sure enough of one given the state of New York right now.

Rush was quite impressive last week against Washington and, though the Cowboys aren't good, they might be competent, especially with the defense getting closer to full health. So while I probably wouldn't be on the Dallas side of many matchups to this point, against these Giants, I'm comfortable taking that side.

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Maybe we're veering a little too much in being overly simple but have we all forgotten about what Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense has looked like when playing in the cold? This game will be at Lambeau Field on Thursday night and, while I expect the Packers to have some issues being at peak effectiveness against an underrated Miami defense, I think Green Bay's defense might stonewall the Dolphins.

This is perhaps where I'm least confident on Thanksgiving Day but I'm willing to take the situation and the matchups and vibe with them.